Saturday, October 31, 2015

Hookipa still well overhead with occasional doh sets, but not quite as massive anymore. Light sideoff wind at 6am.

10 31 15 morning call

Beautiful big waves on the north shore yesterday.

When I said this swell was going to be much, much better than the previous one, I meant for surfing on the north shore, which is what this call is mostly focused on. And, without a doubt, it was.

It probably wasn't on the west side (too west to sneak in between Maui and Molokai). And I also forgot to mention (can't talk about everything every time) that a more westerly swell creates a stronger rip at The Point at Hookipa. The last section of the rights, in fact, had some serious bumps created by the current that moves the water out the channel between Hookipa and Lanes and then upwind. Water moving against the wind creates chop. I'm sure the windsurfers didn't like that too much, but they had another great day in the contest and they're getting closer to finish the double elimination of the Pro Men. The lefts were pretty damn good instead.

I always like to report a photo from yesterday, so this is Jaws (smaller, as predicted) in a photo of John Patao.

Today I'll also add two photos from two days ago.
First one is Single Elimination winner Morgan Noireaux doing a move that I've never seen before and I'm not even sure he planned on doing. He hit the lip, came out a bit engulfed in it, somehow pulled off a forward rotation with a nose (of the board) pick in the water, spun it and kept riding on the face of the wave. Kinda those nose pick reverses that Jadson Andre was doing each single left he caught at Trestles a couple of years ago and that Kerr and Wilkinson pull off quite often too.
Photo by Jimmie Hepp.

This is the spot I surfed two days ago, I forgot this photo in the camera.

The graph of the three buoys is below, notice the similar double hump camel shape at all of them.
The second peak is just starting to come down in Maui, 7.4f 14s is still a lot for me, but I'll probably chance Hookipa (expect a report soon).
Also notice how the swell will gradually go down all day. The NW buoy graph tells us that.

Barbers is only reading the NW wrap, so we have no info on the energy from south swells, you have to check the lahaina camera for that.
And the UPDATED MC2km for the wind whenever they will be available.

Wind maps shows a fetch N of us that is shooting waves SW and that part of the swell will miss us, but I used it as an example to show what the angular spreading looks like. The swells don't only trave straight in the direction they were generated, but they open up angularly to the side. It's intuitive to understand that on the those sides the energy will be less than right in the middle.
Nice fetch down south, 3f south swell in a week (next weekend).

Cheers, I'm gonna go drop in some bombs!

Friday, October 30, 2015

10 30 15 morning call

Beautiful day of surfing pretty much all over the island yesterday.

Once again the show at Hookipa was stolen by the windsurfers who completed the Pro Men single elimination tournament. Winner is Morgan Noireaux and runner up Kauli Seadi, both Hot Sails Maui team team riders.
I sail Hot too and my relationship with the owner/founder Jeff Henderson goes back many many years so I'm really happy for him.

I hope they will both hang in that position when the attacks from the loser brackets will come.
Here's Morgan, photo by Fish Bowl Diaries.

I was skeptical about the wind conditions, but it was a beautiful sunny day and the Haleakala did pull off the magic. Below is the map at 1pm of YESTERDAY OCTBER 29, that shows how well the model that MC@2km uses predicted the sailable conditions.
Why don't I post the one for TODAY instead? Because the maps are not updated yet when I do my morning call and the maps older than 24h are kind of useless.
Highly reliable, but they got to be fresh. So you guys check them out yourselves. Link n.17 on the right.

I can't be bothered with predicting the wind, but I do love trying to predict the waves.
Below the graphs of the NW, Waimea and Pauwela (often I refer to them as "the three buoys").
You HAVE to click on the photo if you want to follow what I'm going to say below. Sorry for the phone users, I know that gets tricky.

Notice how the swell had a first peak around 8am at the first one and, as one would expect from a swell with that angle and period, after 12h it had a similar peak at the Waimea buoy.
Notice also the second peak (couple of feet bigger) the swell had at NW buoy.
And finally notice how different the graph of the Pauwela buoy looks instead and how much smaller the numbers are.

The reason is the original direction of the swell (indicated at the very bottom of the picture); pretty steady around 306-309.
If you draw a line from Hookipa to the tip of Molokai, you get a direction that is roughly 320. That means that a swell from more west than that gets block/refracted by it. But "upswell" of Molokai there's Oahu, Kauai and all the always forgotten islands of the Northern Hawaiian Islands chain.
That means that all these islands will block/refract the swell as well.
From this particular direction, it seems that Waimea is getting pretty much the same amount of energy of the original swell, so Maui's blockage is due mostly to Oahu and Molokai.
Once a swell gets refracted on these islands, it hits the Pauwela buoy from a different direction that the original. In fact, Pauwela's last reading is 7.1ft @ 17s from 317° (NW). You're never gonna observe a reading considerably more west than that at that buoy. No ground swell can come from 300 for example. Unless the whole Kahakuloa collapse in the ocean and creates it.

So, smaller waves that Oahu (gonna be watching the Pipeline cam at the shop later), but 7f 17s are still big waves! Well above my Hookipa threshold, so I'll leave in the dark looking for alternatives again (yesterday's one offered some really nice drops).

My conclusion is that swell in Maui is going to be smaller, more organized (the refraction cuts down most of the shorter period eventual components) and less consistent than the swell of two days ago. In other words, just much much better.
The more east you move on the coast the bigger, so I think the conditions at Jaws will be pretty nice with the light early morning ESE winds.


Wind maps shows a now weak NNW fetch, but don't forget that it has been pretty strong for the past few days, so this swell is also going to be quite long lasting.
I also circled a fetch in the little corner down south that is going to get better.

Talking about south swells, here the reading of Barbers:
4.6ft @ 17s from 284° (WNW)
1.2ft @ 14s from 306° (WNW)
Those are clearly the wrap around Oahu's south shore of the NW swell. We will not get that, IMO it's not west enough to do the same thing in Maui.
But there will be the background energy from the south that the Barbers buoy doesn't even report anymore, since the energy coming from the west is so much bigger.
Check the lahaina webcam before going is my recommendation.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

10 29 15 morning call

More great surfing on the west side yesterday, in particular at Honolua.

But the show was stolen by the windsurfers at Hookipa. Despite the extremely challenging conditions, trialists and pro's were sent out by head judge Duncan Coombs (good call) and it was quite a spectacle to watch.
I got there around 3pm and I give the gnarliness of the conditions a 9.25. Early morning was probably ever closer to a 10. Honestly, if I had to compete, I would have not sailed my heat.

It was mostly survival sailing even for the more skilled ones, but the show was great anyway because of the sheer size of the waves.
Big carnage of broken gear on the rocks too, the Walsh brothers were pretty busy rescuing the competitors with the jet sky.

The clean hits were very rare and obviously rewarded with high scores by the judges. Here's one from Josh Stone in a picture by Jimmie Hepp.

Buoys 4am
5ft @ 17s from 311° (NW)
4.7ft @ 13s from 315° (NW)
3.6ft @ 9s from 42° (NE)
2.8ft @ 8s from 88° (E)

6.4ft @ 14s from 332° (NNW)
4.3ft @ 9s from 10° (N)
1.2ft @ 20s from 316° (NW)

7.4ft @ 13s from 342° (NNW)
4ft @ 8s from 40° (NE)
2.4ft @ 13s from 215° (SW)           
1.4ft @ 10s from 201° (SSW)
1.4ft @ 6s from 132° (SE)
1.4ft @ 6s from 135° (SE)
Today will be a transition day with the NNW swell declining and the new WNW one rising.
The NW buoys reads 5f 17s from 311. That's a lot less west than most forecasts predicted. If it stays like that, Hookipa (and Jaws) is gonna get huge again tomorrow. But I did see some more westerly numbers earlier, so maybe it's just a direction glitch.

Waimea feels it already with 1.2f 20s from 316. That direction is not the original direction of the swell, since it has already been refracted on Kauai and all the Northern islands chain. But that means that we can expect the long period sets of the new swell to start showing up in the late morning/early afternoon at the Pauwela buoy in Maui.
Which for the moment still shows a healthy 7.4f 13s, which is beyond my Hookipa threshold. Good thing I have plenty of alternatives with the lovely offshore wind we will be blessed this morning.
Here's a detail of the local wind direction taken from Windity, but it's absolutely lame compared to the MC2km maps that will be available later this morning.

Wind map below shows a weak but nice and wide NW fetch and you can also see how the trade winds generating high pressure is sitting more east than usual and it's actually gonna move even more east.

All the windsurfers will want to know if the contest will be on today. Check the MC2km website (link n.17 on the right) later when it will updated and you will find the answer.
My guess is no, but if the sun will be out, the Haleakala can always pull off the magic.
Either way, morning surfing should be pretty epic.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Awt contest is on at Hookipa

Small waves inside the harbor while kai lenny and co. get ready to go to jaws.

10 27 15 morning call

The big swell arrived and it had a lot of energy due to the different periods in its first phase.

I blew the morning session because I saw that around 5am the wind in town wasn't too strong. I knew Lahaina was going to be good, but I took a chance to surf on the north shore and got skunked by the wind, which soon became pretty strong and ruined everything.
No big deal because I made good use of the wind later in the day, thanks to a fun windsurfing session together with Browsinho and Levi.
That's the exact equivalent of a surf session with Medina and John John.

After that, I didn't miss the opportunity to go take some shots at Honolua Bay at sunset (always a challenge).
This is the best one. He got totally barreled and totally mowed.

Different wipeout, it was kinda heavy.

Carissa Moore walked up by my car and had one of those wetsuits with the zip in the front that was down enough to show a surprising beautiful cleavage. I gave her a 9.

Facebook sessions are just better when there's a big swell.
Photographer John Patao took this shot of Polakow at Jaws. This is the comment I left:

"I counted 3 masts and a half between his board and the lip above it.
That's 14 meters. 46 feet.
Tomorrow at the shop I'm gonna lay 3 masts and a half on the floor (might have to do it in the parking), then lay down next to the lower mast, look up to the top mast and try to imagine."

Buoys 5am
7.8ft @ 16s from 343° (NNW)
5ft @ 11s from 357° (N)
2.6ft @ 6s from 67° (ENE)
2.6ft @ 10s from 4° (N)

10.1ft @ 17s from 343° (NNW)
5.9ft @ 12s from 342° (NNW) 
13.1ft @ 15s from 346° (NNW)
5.3ft @ 8s from 24° (NNE)

Big numbers that should slowly go down throughout the day, but you can imagine it's still gonna be big all day.
Hopefully a bit cleaner, since now the long period component is more dominant, but there's still a lot of energy out there.

The wind will still ruin the surf on the north shore, but it's turning to a more sideshore direction and the west side will still be the call for surfing. Still quite a big NW fetch from the low that will send big swell number 2, peaking on Friday.

Are they gonna run the Aloha Classic? I stopped guessing, so you guys find out yourselves by tuning in the AWT or PWA websites that should have a webcast of the Pro's.
If they're not running it, the alternative is to check the HIC Pro surf contest at Sunset beach in Oahu that is scheduled to start today and begin the Triple Crown thing for this winter. 
I love this time of the year.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Hookipa is already massive and messy at 8. And that is only the short period component. West side is the call for surfing today.

10 17 15 morning call

Fun waves on both shores yesterday, and today is the start of a week of big waves on the north shore.

Gonna jump straight into the buoys.

Here's the graph of the NW one.

Doesn't really show, but yesterday evening it was "only" reading 10f 11s from 360. This morning at 4am it reads:
8.5ft @ 14s from 349° (NNW)         
4.9ft @ 10s from 11° (NNE)
4.2ft @ 18s from 356° (N)

Here's how Pat Caldwell explained so many different periods and the arrival of the short period first.

"A tropical depression fed a deepening mid latitude low pressure near the dateline late Friday 10/23 as it raced NNE and dropped sharply in central pressure near 40°N, 165°W. It reached hurricane force by Saturday night for the area north of 45°N, with gales north of 35°N, and near gales to 30°N, all aimed at Hawaii, late Saturday into Sunday morning.
The closer, near gale to gale winds over the 330-350 degree band should build the surf locally Monday night with moderate wave periods, climbing near to above the north shore, October to March, seasonal average Tuesday morning.
The primary wave energy is expected from the remote, stronger winds. Ascat satellite Saturday night and Sunday showed a large area of severe gale to hurricane force winds north of 40°N. Highest seas were aimed just east of Hawaii. Jason altimeter measured seas of within 30-35 feet at 06Z 10/26 over a region estimated to be near 25 feet by the Wave Watch III model, ww3. Historically, ww3 has under-estimated the swell prediction for the Waimea buoy output point from winter-caliber systems east of the dateline. Given the jason validation, the possibility of ww3 underestimating the event is even higher.
The long period swell from the remote source should build the surf rapidly mid Tuesday afternoon. This component of the swell should be from within 345-360 degrees, with the angular spreading component due to swell trains missing Hawaii to the east adding energy from 350-010 degrees.
The event should peak overnight Tuesday night at extra-large levels, meaning high enough for breakers on select outer reefs. The full moon high tide of 2.4 feet, one of the astronomically higher tide levels of the year, should see the maximum in the coastal wave run-up in the wee hours early Wednesday pre-dawn.
Heights should remain above average Wednesday, then fall below average by Thursday as it rapidly fades out from 340-010 degrees. "

He's amazing at putting into words complicated weather maps, I just don't understand why he has to do that in this day and age.
I don't personally complain because for me it's like poetry and I thoroughly enjoy the mental exercise to try to picture the fetches he's talking about, but if he would just have the possibility to use a chart and put a couple of arrows here and there, it would be a lot easier to understand.
Like the one below with the giant screaming octopus.
Anyway, if some of you are interested in learning more about wave forecasting, uncle Pat is a must-read.

And after reading that, I must take back what I wrote yesterday and trust his knowledge and believe that this swell is going to be too big to be sailable at Hookipa on Wednesday for the first day of the Aloha Classic. It will depend a lot on the wind too, of course, so maybe I should stop guessing and just wait for the day.
The contest waiting period lasts until Nov 10, so plenty more days and there's still time to sign up for the contest. For example you could do that tonight at the registration party at the Paia Bay coffee.

More buoys:
7ft @ 13s from 337° (NNW)
3.9ft @ 11s from 341° (NNW)
3.4ft @ 10s from 338° (NNW)
2.9ft @ 7s from 347° (NNW)
4.5ft @ 7s from 357° (N)
4.2ft @ 10s from 29° (NNE)
4.2ft @ 14s from 335° (NNW)
0.8ft @ 22s from 352° (N)
3.6ft @ 15s from 190° (S)
1.4ft @ 12s from 245° (WSW)
1.1ft @ 7s from 298° (WNW)
Still relatively small numbers in Maui, but as you can guess from both the NW buoy graph and the 7f 13s reading at Waimea, that is going to change soon.

Epic day on the north shore? Not even close. Gonna be sideon and ugly. The wind map 2pictures below shows a wide WNW fetch still pumping waves for Thursday/Friday's WNW swell and the wind direction on the islands.
Windsurfers might still be able to enjoy it, especially if they take a close look at the MC2km map at 3pm.

In the meantime, let's not forget about the south swell. 3.6f 15s is once again a serious reading for a south swell. Unfortunately that is in Oahu and lately Maui has seen much smaller sizes than that. But it's still far from flat, that's for sure.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Peaks got windy for a while, but now is backing off again at 1.20. Tide is high and I go to work.

Peaks knee to waist high and perfect wind. Oluwalu to lahaina is light onshore instead at 10.30

Hookipa ruined by the onshore wind at 9.30. I'm going south, expect a report later

Chest to head high at Hookipa at 8

10 26 15 morning call

Sorry about the late call this morning, I do need to try to be social once in a while otherwise I'll be completely isolated in my surfing bubble. Which, to be honest with you, doesn't feel too bad of a possibility at all.

The waves at Hookipa were clean pretty much all day yesterday and that's why for a change I didn't drive south.
Here's Tatiana Howard on a little gem at the point in a photo by Jimmie Hepp.

The Pauwela buoy at 6am reads
4.3ft @ 12s from 56° (ENE)
3.4ft @ 9s from 64° (ENE)
which means that there will be similar surf from hurricane Olaf also today.

I didn't drive south doesn't mean there were no waves south. As a matter of fact there were and there will be also today since the Barbers point buoy reads
3ft @ 13s from 205° (SSW)           
1.7ft @ 18s from 192° (SSW)
As you can see, there's still 3f 13s from the old swell (that, despite the lack of consistency and the smaller size than what the Barbers buoy would suggest, lasted almost a week!) and 1.7f 18s from a new long period one.
Long period means more amplification when those 1.7f hit the reef, but also more inconsistent than a shorter period one. So a good mix to enjoy a day of surfing on the south shore and the conditions seem to be very clean on the webcam snapshot below.
The one good thing about a late call is that the MC@2km maps are updated. Below is the noon map that shows the onshore sea breeze picking up on the north shore. Should be pretty clean and windless till then.

Wind map still shows a strong WNW fetch, but the NNW one has rapidly changed its direction and is now shooting more at the west coast of the USA.

Surfline still gives it peaking at 12f 16s Tuesday night and lowering to 10f 15s during the day Wednesday. Which happens to be the first day of competition of the upcoming Aloha Classic windsurfing contest.
Pat Caldwell's last Friday's table instead only reports 8f 15s for that day.

Seeing how little the strong NNW fetch lasted, I tend to agree with uncle Pat and call for sailable conditions (wave size wise) for the Pro's. There will be over mast high waves, but what the hell do we call them pro's for?

We'll get back to that in the next days, I did this extra comment so that my friend Sarah can decide if to go to Jaws or wait at Hookipa to see if they send the ladies out.
Sarah, that'll depend on head judge Duncan. But it's not looking double mast high closing out the channel anymore. Cheers.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Chest to head high clean peaks from the easterly swell at Hookipa at 6.30.

10 25 15 morning call

Another fun day of surfing on the south shore yesterday.

I surfed a spot that was head high on the Makena side first. This is Roque Calderon boosting an air.
Then I went to Lahaina where I briefly surfed a spot that was waist high, before moving to Breakwall that instead had head high sets. The two spots are less than a km apart and it was the first time I saw such a big difference in size between them. Bit of a mystery this swell, really. I thoroughly enjoyed it anyway, despite the lack of consistency (which yesterday was a bit better).
Didn't see Hookipa all day, other than at sunset where it looked fairly small, maybe up to chest high.
Buoys 5am
4.1ft @ 12s from 97° (E)
3.1ft @ 9s from 56° (ENE)
2.5ft @ 10s from 68° (ENE)
0.7ft @ 4s from 55° (ENE)
3.9ft @ 14s from 184° (S)
0.8ft @ 12s from 208° (SSW)
0.4ft @ 9s from 284° (WNW)
We have two different 4 feet swells today. And easterly one coming from Olaf at 12s, and the very long lasting,inconsistent south one, now down to 14s.
If you wonna surf the first one today, your best chance is Hana, since the direction is 97 and not many spots on the north shore are exposed to that. It's going to turn a little into the northern quadrant, but not much today if you see where Olaf still is in this morning's wind map below. Notice also the lovely lack of wind around the islands.

Wind map that is so beautiful that deserves a real weather map for additional comments.
Not one, but two wide, hurricane force wind northwesterly fetches separated by a proper high pressure is a rare occurance.
The one NNW of us will generate a swell that will pick up quickly on Tuesday and that Surfline is calling at 11f 15s in the morning of Wednesday from 344.
The one WNW of us, due to longer distance of travel, will generate a swell that will rise on Thursday and peak on Friday at 10f 16s from 311.

Wonna see what 33 degrees of difference will do on Maui with similar size/period swells? You got a wonderful opportunity this week!

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Lahaina side coming in at waist to belly high and sunny and beautiful

Inconsistent head high waves in this spot on the makena side.

10 24 15 morning call

Fun size waves at Hookipa yesterday morning, as the report reported. I had a lesson on the south shore so I went there to surf this wave beforehand.

 Look how nicely the water has settled in front of the wave.
18s and no wind do that.

My two Canadian students did great, here he needs to be a little lighter on the front foot.

Epic shower shot opportunity did not go missed.
You just don't have a pornstar photoshoot at Puamana every day.

Wow! From curves to other curves, here's today's wind map. The NW fetch is pretty big, but relatively weka. It will become much stronger in the next couple of days and that will send us a NW swell that Surfline at the moment is calling at 11f 16s from 344 on Wednesday. If confirmed, Jaws will be breaking for sure and Honolua will be totally epic double to triple overhead.

Wind should be light (check that on MC2km later when updated) and I think today might be the peak day of the south swell. I say that because of how nicely south to north the fetch SE New Zealand on the weather map of 7 days ago is oriented.

That seems to be confirmed by the Barbers buoy graph below.
4f 17s is remarkable reading when it comes to south swells, but do not forget how inconsistent they are. I mean, look at how far they are generated, how can you expect the same consistency of closer generated N swells?
I like inconsistent swells. You might catch less waves in a session, but it's way easier to paddle out after a ride and far generated swells last longer. For the same exact reason that makes them inconsistent: waves of different period travel at different speed, so the more they travel the more they spread apart.

One thing buoys don't tell you is the consistency (or maybe they do, but you got to analyze the raw data), so just assume it's gonna be slow if it's a swell generated SE of New Zealand. Very slow if it's also shooting at the Americas and we're getting the angular spreading (like in the past few days).

Pauwela is reading
3.6ft @ 13s from 57° (ENE)
2.9ft @ 10s from 75° (ENE)
2.4ft @ 11s from 58° (ENE)
1.4ft @ 5s from 41° (NE)
and all those ENE are a sign that the waves from hurricane Olaf are starting to arrive. They will increase all day, be careful if you surf in Hana.
Got a business appointment at 6am. Not sure I can post a south shore report at that time, but I'll try to post it later in the morning.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Occasionally head high at hookipa at 6.30

10 23 15 morning call

Nice day of waves on the north shore yesterday. South shore was still smaller than the forecast and what the buoys show.

Hookipa was overhead in the morning during the peak of this NW episode and I took full advantage of that by pulling my step-up off the rack.

This is a funny sequence. I love my expression on the first one.

Below is the graph and readings of the Pauwela buoy. You can see how quickly it went down during the afternoon (windsurfing was fun) and how small it will be today with only a couple of feet leftover. Should be even smaller tomorrow.

This one is the graph of the Barbers buoy instead and it shows (finally) a rise (blue line) to 3f 18s which is a solid reading. More periods in the mix and don't forget that this is the angular spreading of a swell that is more directed towards central America. So expect long lulls.

Yesterday I posted the NON UPDATED 1pm map of Maui County @ 2km. It showed not enough wind for sailing. Later in the morning, the maps got updated and this is the 1pm of YESTERDAY that instead does show the pink 15-20 knots area. And in fact, it was sailable.
In other words, unless they are less than 24h old, the MC@2km maps are kind of useless.
That makes total sense, because their model does take into consideration local weather features (like clouds and rain) and so it can only be reliable for a short time.
I consider it the best wind prediction tool for Maui and since it's not updated when I post my call, you guys will have to check it out yourselves.
I'm done with windguru, as I said, I'm done with the wind prediction. I'll focus on the waves.

Well, maybe I will do a bit of wind prediction based on what I see on the wind map style below.
The direction looks way too onshore to be a good trades day. Once again, check link n.17 later to see what their model say, 'cause that counts way more than what I say.

Bit of a N fetch up there and Olaf that starts saying hello coming out of the shade of the Big Island where it has been sitting for a week or so. Easterly swell in the weekend, we'll talk about it in the next days' call.

Lastly, that's the wave where I took that first shot from. I saw my friend Jason doing a double hand wall grab on a wave and immediately got inspired to try it myself...

Thursday, October 22, 2015

South shore still small, honolua barely breaking knee to waist high and windsurfers out at Hookipa at 1

Hookipa overhead and clean at 7

10 22 morning call


Very small waves on the south shore yesterday, while Hookipa came up to a fun head high size.

I'm trying to please both genders of readers with this combo below. The guy on the right shows unmatchable color coordination skills, specially after you notice the yellow strip on the speedos.


4.4ft @ 9s from 78° (ENE)           
4.4ft @ 12s from 333° (NNW)
Hookipa might be even occasionally overhead this morning but the peak of the swell at the NW buoy below happened mid day yesterday so expect the Maui peak sometimes in the morning. Sunset should be smaller than sunrise.

3.8ft @ 13s from 292° (WNW)
1.6ft @ 11s from 300° (WNW)
1.4ft @ 22s from 201° (SSW)
1.4ft @ 18s from 185° (S)
Interesting WNW reading at the Barbers buoy. That is coming from Thypoon Champi off Japan and, as usual from that direction, it's not gonna do much in Maui.
But the two long period readings will.
Uncle Pat was saying how in his opinion the Wave Watch 3 model (which is pretty much what every surf forecast website uses) overestimated the size of this swell.

Let's have a look at the fetches that generated it on Oct 14 and 15


They're strong, but not exactly aiming towards Hawaii. We're getting the angular spreading of a swell that is travelling to our east and that usually translates into long waits. A first look at the Lahaina webcam at sunrise this morning seems to confirm that.
Worth a check later though.
I'm tired of cutting and copying the windguru wind prediction, so if you guys like that, you go check it there. I don't particularly like them anyway.
I'd rather use the NON UPDATED MC2km maps instead, but I would recommend you guys check meteo link n.17 later to see if the oct 22 update is available (date is on the top right corner).
This is the 1pm NON UPDATED map and it shows light trades. Too light to sail.

That seems to be confirmed by the wind map that shows light winds over the islands and a couple of fetches NW and S.

I'll have a look at Hookipa first, expect a report soon.