Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Tuesday 4 7 20 morning call

Beautiful high quality waves all day at Hookipa yesterday thanks to the lack of wind. This is Annie Reickert in a nice bottom to top turn combo at around 4.30, before the big rain came. And what a lovely rain it was, a proper low pressure front kind of rain, coming down vertically and uniformly and not almost horizontally like during the trades induced squalls.


By the way, the sign I posted a couple of days ago was clearly a "non official" one, and today the ocean is still open. Someone posted it on the social media and it got a bit viral generating all kind of reactions, from "that's a privacy of our freedom!" to "it's about time to shut down the ocean!". It's a bit scary how powerful the social media has become, but what counts is that the message was a valid one and it seems that now people are more responsible and I didn't see as many families going to the beach with for a picnic like nothing was happening.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 15s from 311° (NW)

Lanai
1.9ft @ 16s from 193° (SSW)

I was tempted to not post any readings, as there's no southerly energy, but it's a good example of how you need to interpret them. Barbers clearly shows that the 15s reading is from the long period NW swell and so you can deduce (also knowing that there wasn't any fetches down south a week ago) that also the 16s energy at Lanai buoy must be that wrap. In Lanai's case, the wrap is such that it appears from 193 degrees, and it might even be true at the buoy, but that doesn't mean that the same energy will make it to Lahaina. At this point, the thing to do to find out is to check the Lahaina webcam, if interested, for size, conditions and consistency (there's some waves but it's onshore because of the southerly flow).

North shore
NW101
6.8ft @ 10s from 307° (WNW)
4.7ft @ 13s from 289° (WNW)

Hanalei
5.3ft @ 8s from 1° (N)
2.9ft @ 15s from 316° (NW)

Waimea
2.7ft @ 9s from 322° (NW)
2.6ft @ 15s from 308° (WNW)
1.7ft @ 11s from 316° (NW)

Pauwela
3.6ft @ 8s from 50° (NE)
2.2ft @ 15s from 313° (NW)

No bragging here, just teachings: yesterday (Monday morning) I wrote The first pulse of the closely generated NW swell went down quickly (as the history of the fetch would suggest), but already tomorrow a reinforcement of about 11-12s should arrive. That was exclusively based on the observation of the fetch, without checking any other source. Later in the afternoon, Pat Caldwell wrote:

The initial stages Saturday to Sunday locally 4/4-5 saw the largest breakers from the aforementioned low. Those higher breakers were generated during the onset phase of the low pressure occlusion with gales aimed just west of Hawaii 4/1-2. That fetch weakened into 4/3-4 with only fresh to strong breezes over a short fetch aimed at Hawaii within 300-330 degrees. Hence the sharp drop Sunday into Monday 4/5-6. Wait, it is not over yet.
ASCAT satellite 4/5 showed the surface winds over the aforementioned fetch aimed at Hawaii to strengthen a notch with some pockets to near gales and seas of 10-12 feet about 800 nm away. This shorter period energy should trend up the surf from 300-330 degrees locally Tuesday into Wednesday 4/7-8 with surf heights below the April average. The WNW to NW component of this short-period event is expected to drop Thursday 4/9 as the dominant energy swings to NNW.

That is to show that, as long as you've built some knowledge by doing that long enough, the observation of the fetches should immediately tell you what kind of swell we're going to get and when.

Now, you might want to grab your coffee here, as I put some time into the collage below and will put some more time into explaining it. We have the graphs of the four reported buoys and the Surfline forecast. Arrows color legenda:
blue: long period distantly generated WNW swell
red: short/medium period closely generated NW swell
black: short period closely generated ENE windswell.

The red circles indicate the rise of the second pulse of short/medium period closely generated NW swell, which started occurring around noon yesterday at the NW buoy. It shows a period of 10s. By applying GP's rule of thumb for the travelling time (16h @ 16s +/- 1h per 1s), we know that at 10s that takes 16+6=22h to get here, so it should start rising around 10am locally. As a matter of fact, at 6am there's no sign of such rise yet at Pauwela. The blue line in fact indicates the easterly windswell (see the direction in the lower part of the graph). The red dotted line shows my prediction of the rise which will be noticeable in the afternoon, with a possible light kona wind for good measure. The surfline forecast, as usual, is delayed by about 12h or more. Btw, I did email Surfline and they replied that they're gonna look into it. I'll keep you posted if they reply again.

Meanwhile, in the morning we have the long period energy of the distantly generated WNW swell (2.2ft 15s) and the 8s period easterly windswell (3.6ft). Hookipa will have relatively small waves (with very clean conditions seen the southerly flow of the wind) before the above mentioned increase in the afternoon. Overall, it should be another really good day of surfing over there.
Uff, that was a lot of work, I hope someone read the whole thing...



Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
our beloved nearby low keep producing waves and shutting down the trades.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
No fetches worth the red circle, but I put an arrow on cyclone Harold, which is about to hit Fiji.


Morning sky.

Monday, April 06, 2020

Monday 4 6 20 morning call

Beautiful day of surfing on the north shore, this seems to be Ian Gentil at Hookipa at sunset.


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.7ft @ 14s from 196° (SSW)

Lanai
1.4ft @ 14s from 197° (SSW)

Surprising SSW energy at the buoys, I can't find any fetches that would make that on my maps. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Looks like a southerly flow, so conditions are pretty bad.

North shore
NW101
2.6ft @ 17s from 270° (W)

Hanalei
1.6ft @ 18s from 313° (NW)

Waimea
2.6ft @ 9s from 317° (NW)
2.5ft @ 11s from 323° (NW)
1.2ft @ 18s from 309° (WNW)

Pauwela
3ft @ 8s from 56° (ENE)
2.5ft @ 11s from 324° (NW)
1.3ft @ 6s from 69° (ENE)
0.9ft @ 20s from 323° (NW)

The first pulse of the closely generated NW swell went down quickly (as the history of the fetch would suggest), but already tomorrow a reinforcement of about 11-12s should arrive. Today we have also a new low, long period WNW swell arriving from much more distant. Below are the maps of April 2, 3 and 4. The black arrow points at the remote source, which was never particularly strong or wide and moved across the rays circle,  hence limiting the surf production. The modest, although long period, readings of this morning confirm the low expectations.

The red arrow points to the fetch associated to the nearby low instead. You can see that it was strongest on the 2nd (hence the waves were biggest Saturday night) and that it became much weaker the next couple of days (and that explains the small energy of today). Also notice how it sent most of its energy to our west, which also explains why the upstream islands stayed a bit bigger yesterday.

Overall, today is going to be a relatively small day for the Hookipa standards, with extremely clean conditions due to the lack of wind with a light southerly flow.


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
the nearby low is doing a good job at keeping the winds light and at creating medium period NW waves.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
bit of a fetch in the Tasman Sea.


Morning sky.

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Sunday 4 5 20 morning call

Hookipa at sunset had plenty double overhead sets. This is a photo of a smaller one that I took from the car when I pulled over for a couple of minutes around 6.30ish. Kinda blown out, as the trades blew strong enough for kiters and windsurfers to go out.


This is the new sign that could be seen yesterday on some beach accesses: if people will keep hanging out at the beach they will close to access to the ocean completely on Tuesday. I'm a bit pessimistic on this one. Please help distribute the message as much as you can.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
1.3ft @ 12s from 225° (SW)

That is a very questionable reading at Lanai only. Based on the lack of fetches a week ago, I would expect the be flat to tiny, but instead, once again, there's still surprisingly some sets like the one below. I'm liking this tendency! As usual, if interested, check the Lahaina webcam for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
NW101
6.3ft @ 12s from 333° (NNW)

Hanalei
6ft @ 13s from 339° (NNW)

Waimea
6.3ft @ 13s from 324° (NW)

Pauwela
4.5ft @ 13s from 331° (NNW)
4ft @ 8s from 77° (ENE)

Below are the graphs of NW and Pauwela together with yesterday's predictions: my dotted line was pretty much spot on (compare the red circles), while the Surfline one was the usual 12 hours late (that's enough, I'm gonna send them an email, so hopefully they can fix that).
The swell has peaked during the night, but with all the upstream buoys holding up around 6ft, it should hold pretty steady throughout the day, with a slight size decrease due to the diminishing period.
4.5ft 13s should provide with waves of size average around head and a half at Hookipa and the lack of wind until 10am should make for excellent conditions.


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
the nearby low NW of us has re-gained intensity and now has a decent fetch again. Almost 6ft 11s from 213 predicted by Surfline on Wednesday, but that seems a bit generous (and late again).


The most important effect of that low, even more than the waves, is going to be the lack of trades, as illustrated by the Windguru table below.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
one fetch deep in the Tasman Sea and another SE one.


Morning sky.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Saturday 4 4 20 morning call

Didn't take any photos yesterday, here's one of those incredible shots by Ben Thouard.


I found out that Youtube can add computer generated captions to any video. This is a funny collection of mistakes out of my last one of the Corona Virus vlogs series, which can all be accessed by clicking on the label Covid-19 Surfing vlogs. Didn't know I was racist...



5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.6ft @ 12s from 177° (S)
1.5ft @ 15s from 196° (SSW)

Lanai
2.2ft @ 13s from 177° (S)

Still 2.2ft 13s at Lanai, this fourth swell of the series is lasting a lot longer than I thought. We can say that now there have been waves for two weeks in a row on the south shores. The 1.5ft 15s reading at Barbers might make you think that there's a new one on the rise, but that could also be the new NW energy wrap. If it isn't, soon Lanai should show it too, and it would be another swell that I can't identify the source. In the end, as usual, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Here's a nice set at the Breakwall.


North shore
NW101
7.6ft @ 13s from 315° (NW)

Hanalei
2.6ft @ 14s from 333° (NNW)

Waimea
1ft @ 15s from 325° (NW)

Pauwela
4.6ft @ 9s from 73° (ENE)
1.7ft @ 11s from 27° (NNE)

After a long time of only NE to E energy, today we will see the rise of a new long period NW swell. Here's a brief description of the source by Pat Caldwell:
A low pressure occluded near 40N, 168W 4/1-2. ASCAT satellite showed gales aimed best at Hawaii over the 325-330 degree band 4/1 daytime. The gales began aiming more north to south along 170W at targets well west of Hawaii by the Wednesday night ASCAT pass. A much larger area of near gales also aims meridionally. The fetch at Hawaii over the 315-330 degree band is short 4/2 and mostly marginal to sub gale.
The initial evolution of the wind field 4/1 into 4/2 should bring in the highest surf. It is predicted to climb locally late morning Saturday 4/4 from 320-340 degrees, peak Saturday night, then steadily decline Sunday 4/5 from the same direction.

Below is the collage of the maps of April 1, 2 and 3 that show that the best day of wave generation was the 2nd (maps are sampled at midnight of the day before, so midnight of the 1st).


Below are the graphs of NW, Waimea, and Pauwela together with Surfline forecast, which, as usual, appears to be around 12 hours late. The red dotted line is my prediction of how the swell will pick up locally. One thing for sure, with 7.5ft 13s at the NW buoy, the size at sunset tonight and tomorrow morning will be pretty solid. As far as the early morning of today instead, there's always the easterly windswell. I surfed Hookipa yesterday at sunset and there were some occasional head high sets!


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
small scattered fetches today.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
That small south fetch connects two much larger ones which, unfortunately, are aiming too much to our west and to our east.


Morning sky.

Friday, April 03, 2020

Friday 4 3 20 morning call

It was another great day of fun waves on the south shore, this is Pete Cabrinha enjoying a rather lovely Ukumehame.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.8ft 13s from 169

Lanai
2.1ft 14s from 183

There's still waves from the SSE and that's very perplexing, as my fetches maps don't justify them. Here's what Pat Caldwell says:
A mid latitude low pressure to storm force south of 50S within 100-120W moved slowly E 3/23-25. It had fetch aimed directly at Hawaii, which is unusual for lows in that area to establish such long, wide fetches of sufficient duration to generate swell for Hawaii. A much weaker subtropical low formed S to SE of the Tuamotu Islands 3/26-27, adding shorter-period swell from a similar direction of 145-160 degrees to the aforementioned source.

Below is the map of the 27th, the only one where the Tuamotu fetch deserved a red circle. But that's 8 days ago and the travel time from there is only around 5 days.


Whatever the source is, there's still waves. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.



North shore
Pauwela
4.3ft @ 9s from 74° (ENE)

Still a bit of windswell at Pauwela, better enjoyable at eastern exposures.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
The low to our NW today is only aiming winds to our west. The remote NW fetch is better oriented and there's still an offshore E windswell as well.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
Moderate S fetch.


Morning sky.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Thursday 4 2 20 morning call

Surfing at the time of the Corona virus vlog n.2 is up.


This is some much better nose riding.


Ah, that drop knee turn... got to start trying them!


Things are tightening up, this is a sign that can be found on beaches that are not classified as state parks (hence are not closed). Yesterday I was reading a book on my beach chair (completely by myself) and a group of uniformed officials kindly asked me to either leave or engage in an activity like the ones described below. I replied:"hey, if the police asks me to go surfing, I better do it! Thanks a lot, the waves look good right now!".
Only in Hawaii...


3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.8ft @ 14s from 180° (S)

Lanai
3.1ft @ 14s from 172° (S)

3ft 14s? This swell is performing much better than I thought! Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
Waimea
2.4ft @ 11s from 322° (NW)

Pauwela
5.1ft @ 9s from 76° (ENE)

Waimea is the only buoy that still shows a bit of NW energy, but the windswell is holding up nicely. Eastern exposures will be a valid option, seen the lovely lack of wind.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
finally a semi-decent NNW fetch (although most of it aims to our west) after many days of windswell only (6ft 12s from 326 predicted by Surfline on Sunday). The associated low is going to stay in that area for a long time, providing us with moderate size waves and very light E to ESE winds. Next week looks good on the north shore.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
nothing today.


Morning sky.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Wewdnesday 4 1 20 morning call

The clips of the Corona Virus Surfing vlog n.2 were taken yesterday (no time to edit yet), here's a frame grab that shows the remarkably high quality of the waves on the Lahaina side. I wish I had my shortboard on that hollow one.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.6ft @ 14s from 201° (SSW)

Lanai
2.5ft @ 14s from 188° (S)

Surprisingly high readings at the local buoys! Should another good day on the south facing shores.
Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
Hanalei
2.7ft @ 11s from 321° (NW)

Waimea
1.9ft @ 12s from 312° (NW)

Pauwela
4.4ft @ 9s from 83° (E)
1.8ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)

Very small 12s NW energy at Pauwela, while the easterly windswell comes down. Yesterday I did check an eastern exposure before going to Lahaina and it was chest to head high but sloppy. Today should be a bit smaller, but still a possible option, seen the favorable early morning winds.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
the moderate size/strength fetch in blue is oriented towards the Marshalls, but we'll get some angular spreading. Windswell fetch getting weaker.



South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
nothing in the usual region, look where I had to go to find a possible small SE fetch oriented towards us. My confidence factor of receiving any energy out of that is 0.5%.


Morning sky.


Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Tuesday 3 31 20 morning call

Another Ridge Lenny barrel by OneMoreFoto.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 15s from 210° (SSW)

Lanai
1.6ft @ 15s from 199° (SSW)
     
Good numbers at the local buoys, the Tasman Sea swell did fill in nicely. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
2.7ft @ 13s from 288° (WNW)

Hanalei
1.6ft @ 14s from 307° (WNW)

Waimea
1.1ft @ 15s from 304° (WNW)

Pauwela
5.6ft @ 9s from 79° (ENE)
1ft @ 15s from 326° (NW)

Plenty ENE 9s windswell still in the water, while a new low long period WNW energy fills in. This is a classic example of a case where if you check the the NOAA Pauwela buoy page, you wouldn't know about the secondary swell, as the primary is much bigger. That's why I check the buoys on the Surfline page instead (link n. 11).

Below is the collage of the fetches maps of March 26 thourgh 30. As you can see (click on the image to enlarge it), the WNW fetch is strongest on the first one (the 15s energy we're receiving today), but the rest of days it's pretty weak. Considering how west it is (around 310, based on its position on the map), no spots other than Hookipa should see much at all from it. And considering that the windswell is still pretty high, not even there it's going to be particularly noticeable. I would then recommend to chase the easterly energy on east exposures, also because the wind should finally be good in this morning (and in the next few mornings).


Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).


North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):
a couple of tiny/weak NW fetches, plus the windswell fetch.


South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):
a rare SSE fetch SE of Chile.


Morning sky. Thanks to this lovely clouds, the thermal onshores should be less than usual today.