Saturday, December 10, 2016

7am Hookipa has clean up to head high waves, similar to yesterday. Rainy and dark. 8

12 10 16 morning call

Long post today, I'm gonna start by embedding this video of one of Mishka songs (tonight's concert at Charley's reminder at the end of the post). Nothing to watch, so just start it and the read the post, with a lovely and apt soundtrack. The song is entitled Coastline journey, which is pretty much what we do daily here. I particularly like a line at the beginning:"I've been seeking head high and above, right now a ripple would be fine."


Two sessions and another awesome day of surfing on Maui's north shore yesterday.
I took these photos between 4 and 5 and the waves had gone down quite a bit compared to the morning, but the cleanness was still there. I might have underscored the last couple of 7's I gave the morning conditions, I elaborate on that at the very end of this post.

Looks like Ian Gentil.

Looks like Tio Juan instead.

If someone drops in on you, you might as well accept the reality and celebrate with him...
Which is pretty much what Matt Kahn says in this powerful teaching video called The End of Victimhood: if someone does or says something bad to you, you reply "thank you!" and add a compliment and a blessing to end the chain of abuse that that bad thing originated from.
Yes, Maui does weird things to you (like me watching a spiritual 1 hour 15 minutes video) . And if it doesn't, that's even more weird.

Dream bottom turn section. Guy was ripping.

Tanner Hendrickson on a gem.

Mean turn.

Sometimes you have to settle for the vision.

Looks like Yoav.

Seems like that front foot pad's working. I didn't like mine (and took it off), because I was missing the sturdy contact between ribs and board, specially when paddling for a wave. But it's very personal.

Imai De Vault.

Always happy to take a photo of a friend, specially if it's a good energy guy like Scott Trudon.

Tanner.

The sunset was pretty spectacular and unexpected.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

No southerly energy at the buoys, check the webcam to judge yourself the degree of flatness.

North shore
NW
6.8ft @ 12s from 14° (NNE)

N
2.9ft @ 11s from 333° (NNW)

Hanalei
4.2ft @ 12s from 353° (N)

Pauwela
2.7ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)
2.3ft @ 10s from 341° (NNW)
 
The reason for the high NNE energy at the NW buoy is illustrated in the current wind map below. That energy is aimed west of us and we'll eventually only get a fraction of it, thanks to the angular spreading. Hanalei is reading 4 feet of that, Pauwela 2 to 3. I drew the (short bodied in this case) cockroach's antennae on the current wind map below so that you can understand why the directions are different in different places. First though, here's a reminder of the buoy position, that you can also find in this post labeled "buoys" in the labels section of the blog.
 

Current wind map shows a distant WNW fetch and a tiny but much closer one related to that low north of us. It's been there three days already and it won't move much in the next few days. It would be an excellent source of waves, but unfortunately the strongest wind circulation is aiming west of us. That's why the NW buoy has such big numbers. But the angle will get better for us at one point and as a result will be a NNE swell that Surfline calls for 7f 12s from 25 on Wednesday.

Long but weak fetch in the Tasman Sea and I highlighted in black the contour of the North island of New Zealand that will block most of the generated energy. See how narrow is that corridor between it and Fiji is?


NAM3km map at noon shows some moderate Konas. Early morning is going to be California glass again instead.


Conditions have been so good all day also thanks to the cloud cover. The less the sun heats up the land during the day, the less onshore breeze will be generated. Looks like we're gonna have another of those high clouds day (image 5am).


I have no interest/skill in forecasting the rain, so I'm just gonna say that I see a lot of it south of us in this 5.35am radar image and that it's moving up. Check yourself links 6 and 8 for updates on that.


A reader left a comment two days ago (thanks!) linking the video below and I'm going to reply with the explanation of my ranking of the Hookipa conditions.
First, the scale is the following: 0 for flat, 10 for as good as it gets (I've seen it a few times in 15 years, so I know what it looks like).
Second, what influences the score is: the shape, size and consistency  of the waves . If there's a perfect wave every half an hour, it can't be a 10. Same if it's more consistent by only waist high.
I also don't take into account the crowd. Sometimes I might mentioned if it's empty or packed, but otherwise I only score the conditions. AND, my score is not based on Pavillions, but more on Middles and The Point.

The reader asked me to rank the conditions in this inspiring video below that he linked. He was obviously joking, but even if he wasn't, I couldn't really do it, because I have no idea of how good the waves get on those lakes. I'm guessing it's probably a 10 every time that there's waves! Love the improbable surfing community that they were able to set up over there.

Btw, I was thinking about setting up a similar metereology workshop sometimes in Spring here in Maui. I haven't thought about the title yet, could be something like "Maui wave prediction workshop" with a subtitle like "learn the tools to daily pick the right surf spot for your ability/preference". If anyone has an interest in that, please leave a comment/send me an email. Because it implies extra work, I won't even start if I don't see enough interest. Thanks!

On Days Like These We Must Surf from Jake Kovnat on Vimeo.


And here's the banner for tonight Mishka's concert.

Friday, December 09, 2016

7am Hookipa has clean up to head to head waves. A bit more consistent than yesterday, but not that much. Still 7.

12 9 16 morning call

Double session for me yesterday, both really good thanks to the lack of wind. What I enjoyed the most was the paddling back out after a wave: perfectly smooth, no chop, no wind, no spray in the eyes.

I don't have an action shot, so here's coworker Ariel showing another Jimmy Lewis board we just received. I'm no team rider or anything, I was just impressed by this longboard when I unpacked it.
It's a 9.1 Thai Stick, it's 22 wide and I measured the thickness in the middle at 2 3/8! An extremely thin and high performance shape that I could comfortable carry under my arm like it was a shortboard. I don't do much longboarding these days, but I sure wouldn't mind owning that one.
On the background, a small part of our vast fleet of rental windsurf boards.


5am significant buoy readings
South shore

Nothing at the buoys, check the webcam instead.


North shore
NW
4.2ft @ 11s from 355° (N)
4ft @ 9s from 18° (NNE)

N
3ft @ 13s from 324° (NW)
2.9ft @ 10s from 28° (NNE)
 
Hanalei
2.9ft @ 13s from 315° (NW)
2.6ft @ 8s from 30° (NNE)
2.1ft @ 11s from 345° (NNW)

Pauwela
3.1ft @ 13s from 336° (NNW)
1.8ft @ 8s from 49° (NE)
 
Before I discuss today's readings, let me quickly inform you that yesterday the Bay was completely flat. That confirms that the NNW direction of those 4f 14s readings at the Pauwela buoy was wrong. That was instead a WNW swell, the first one that Pat Caldwell mentions here: "Mid Thursday on northwest to northern exposures has a mix of declining swell episodes from 300-320 degrees and 010-030 degrees, respectively". "The Thursday 12/8 WNW surf was generated west of the dateline last weekend. It should slowly fade out Friday".
 
Today we have a completely different situation. ALL the buoys are showing energy from a much more northerly direction. And here's again what uncle Pat has to say:"A nearby low pressure has formed about 600 nm NNW to N of Hawaii 12/8." (you can see it on yesterday's and today's wind maps)
11 am HST 12/8 ascat-b satellite showed a compact area of gales aimed at targets west of Hawaii. Given a similar pattern last week that manifested into higher than expected surf locally Sunday 12/4, this feature deserves attention. Models show the low remaining nearly in place with a trend for the strongest winds to aim more westward, that is, less at Hawaii.
The head of the fetch is about 500 nm away on 12/8, which should allow a rise locally mid to late Friday from 340-360 degrees from angular spreading. This makes for large error bars on the specific heights. Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates, which can be fine-tuned with the latest buoy data and surf observations.
The low pressure just north of Hawaii 12/8 is expected to be long-lived and slow in movement. It will likely keep NNW to N surf into Monday 12/12 at levels below the active season, September to may, average.
 
So, is the NNW energy at the buoys already the one coming from the close by low? I don't know, but for sure the direction of the readings seems much more reliable today. So without worrying too much where it's coming from, I think we can count on those 3f 13s. That should be a fun head high size at Hookipa, stay tuned for the beach report (running a bit late this morning).

Current wind map shows a decent NW fetch and a couple of small/not ideal ones related to that low north of us. I like also that one in the Tasman Sea, but we need to check tomorrow too to know if it's gonna do anything for us (probably not).


NAM3km map at noon shows a light Kona flow. Once again, the north shore waves love that.


Lastly, here's another entertainment opportunity. This movie will be on at the MACC Dec 17th. I've seen the previous ones and the photography has always been outstanding. Here's the trailer, additional info on their facebook page and you can get your tickets here.


Oh, some people care about the rain, so here's the 6.05am rain radar.

Thursday, December 08, 2016

8.30am Hookipa has California-like glassy head to head and a half waves. I confirm the overall 7, because of the low consistency (might improve a bit on a lower tide), but I saw (and fortunately caught one too!) some waves that were a solid 9. Not raining anymore and the lineup is filling up quickly.
Sorry, forgot to take another photo.

6.30am Hookipa has clean head to head and a half inconsistent sets out of the nw. Rainy. 7.

12 8 16 morning call

The morning surf at Hookipa was pretty outstanding yesterday until the wind picked up (fortunately only after I left). The afternoon offered a unexpected and fun windsurf session.
Blog author dealing with a tricky section in this photo by Luca Salvatore.

The windsurfing session was unexpected because I didn't check the MC2km maps once updated. I post the NAM3 local wind prediction because that's the best thing available at the time I do this call. If you want a more accurate local wind prediction, check out the link. n.17 later in the day and make sure that in the upper right corner it shows that the maps have been updated (current date).
The one below is from yesterday at 3pm and it shows wind in the 10 to 15 knots range which is exactly what was out there. But that map was not available at 6am.


4am significant buoy readings
South shore
No more southerly energy at the buoys, it's gonna be like that for a while. If you guys still interested in what's going on on the south shore, there's always the lahaina and kihei webcams linked in the "webcams" section on the right colum of this blog. Just scroll down and you'll find them.

North shore
NW
4.3ft @ 9s from 73° (ENE)
4ft @ 13s from 296° (WNW)

Hanalei
4.7ft @ 14s from 306° (WNW)

Pauwela
4.1ft @ 14s from 336° (NNW)
3ft @ 8s from 43° (NE)
2.1ft @ 11s from 8° (N)
 
4f at sunset I said and 4f at sunset it was yesterday at the Pauwela buoy. The NW buoy went down a couple of feet (the graph is all broken down, that's why I don't show it), but Hanalei stayed pretty steady all yesterday. Below is Hanalei on the left and Pauwela on the right. Red dotted line is what I think the swell is going to do in Maui today. Actually I think it's going to hold a little better than that, but it's hard to draw a dotted line with a touchpad mouse.

The real topic of conversation (the unilateral kind, also called monologue) here should be the direction. 296 at NW, 306 at Hanalei and 336 at Pauwela don't make any sense. These are the cases in which I follow the common sense and blame the buoys (Pauwela in this case) for doing a measuring mistake.
The direction of the swell in Maui is obviously wrong, can't be 336 not even after the refraction upon the upstream islands. I can give you up to 315 for that, but 336 is just not correct. I think it's because there's more swells insisting on that buoy, so the correct direction detection fails.
Let's not forget about those other swells in fact: the windswell is going down to levels that soon won't be noticeable anymore, and the N swell still has a couple of feet to add to the mix.


Current wind map shows a few scattered fetches here and there (forgot to circle that low south of us, but the fetch is pretty weak). No big waves generated for us today either (been like that for 3 days), but this map looks a lot more like winter than a couple of days ago. That low north of us is sucking humid air from the south and as a result today is going to be a wet one.


That is confirmed by the 5.35am radar image. You can check the evolution of the rain throughout the day by clicking the link n.8 of the GP's meteo links list, which is all I use to do this call (plus a bit of local knowledge, ofcourse). I also like links n.6 and 7 for that, but today they don't seem to be working.
Anyway, I woke up with lightining and thunder, and those are quite rare in Maui.


NAM3km map at noon shows a light southerly flow. The north shore waves loves that.


I love Mishka's music and will try to go see his concert at this Saturday at Charley's. The doors open at 9 and there's a DJ set before him, but he's only going to start playing at 10.30pm, which seems like a bit of a contradiction in a surfing place. I'm usually asleep for a couple of hours already by then...


Lastly, a friend of mine found a kiteboard on the beach yesterday. Send me an email if you lost it, I'll get you in touch with her. Please describe what's on the bottom of it.