Thursday, January 29, 2015

Freaking paradise out here!

Overhead and beautiful

1 29 15 morning call





The MC @ 2km forecast yesterday called for more wind than it really was. Despite being the most reliable model, this shows that a forecast can ALWAYS be wrong.
But it was glassy both at dawn (for many hours, actually) and at sunset and both of them saw same really clean waves to be ridden.
Tons of people in the water thanks to the non scary size, which was averaging around the head and a half mark. Some DOHeader occasionally.

The photo of Jimmie Hepp below illustrates the average size quite well, even though it was taken in the windy central section of the day.

The graph of the three buoys below shows that the swell should hold pretty steady throughout the day (smaller than yesterday though). Pauwela is reading 4.5f at 15s and that's still overhead and fun.

Wind conditions will be ideal (light offshore) in the early morning and probably a bit stronger SW in the afternoon. The wind map also shows a northerly wide fetch that will provide waves in next few days. The original direction of the swells will turn from WNW that has been dominant for the last couple of weeks to a more common NW and even NNW towards the beginning of next week.

In the closeup we can see that small aread of slightly strnger Konas that might move over Maui in the afternoon.

As a result, both the MC @ 2km at 3pm and the NAM model on Windguru call for some wind that could be possibly sailable. Port tack specialists, stay ready.
If it's not today, it looks that it will be next week.

Have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. All the sources for this post are permanently linked in the links section on the right of this blog.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Head and a half sets like this, but also just as frequent flat spells. It's the nature of the wrap.

1 28 15 morning call

Yesterday went pretty much like predicted. Some surfing in the morning (back to normal: plenty wind, chop, windswell and backwash in the lineup) and some sailing in the afternoon.
I chose to sail extremely late because:
- the wind was offshore and very gusty (like 10 to 30 kinda gusty) and I wanted it to get much lighter
- only in the last part of the day, some sets of the new swell showed up
- the number of sailors went down.
Didn't last long, because of course the surfers paddled out, but I got a couple in my favorite conditions: light to almost no wind, offshore and uncrowded.
I just like the challenges that this kind of sailing offers, from the no wind tacks, to emergency uphauling in front of the rocks, to positioning, etc.

Nonetheless, I'd like to start today's call not with a windsurfing photo, but with a beautiful image of a Maui wave from John Patao. That barrel is so square, that wave should be called The Maui Box.

Today it should be a lot more about surfing... but not only.
Below is the graph of the three main buoys of interest for us. Notice how the swell did turn west as predicted (at the NW buoy) and notice also how consistent the directions at the other two buoys are.
It doesn't matter how west a swell is at the NW buoy, the directions at the Waimea and the Pauwela buoys will always be around 310 and 320!
That's because those buoys register the swell AFTER it has refracted on the upstream islands.
What changes depending on the original direction is the size AND the consistency (this last one not reported by the buoys).
You guys remember the sizes of the last huge one? They're somewhere down on this blog, but I'm just gonna try to go by heart. I think there were around 20, 14 and 10 or something like that.
This one instead is offering 8, 6 and 4. Not exactly the same proportion, but almost!
The more of these examples you try to memorize, the more able you will be to tell what the next swell is going to do.
ANYWAY, 4f 18s.... I'll take them any day!!!
I don't hear much noise out of my window (and there's no wind), so I'm expecting it to be inconsistent.

Local wind conditions are key for the quality of the waves.
Below is the wind map that shows a fetch that moved in a more northerly position (good, I dig north swells) and the local wind direction that will be ESE. That's a great direction for some glassy dawns, but (specially if it's sunny), it will allow some easterly flow to fill in in the afternoon. Maybe not Hookipa (too many surfers), but someone might attempt to sail/kite Lanes.

The noon wind map from MC @ 2km does confirm that.

Have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. All the sources for this post are permanently linked in the links section on the right of this blog.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

At 6pm there's some 20 seconds lines coning through. Still some wind and windswell, but both should go down. Tomorrow could be inconsistent but good.

Waves are still shoulder to head high but poor conditions.

1 27 15 morning call

After wasting some time and gas to go check Honolua yesterday morning, I went back home, watched a Napoli game live online and went sailing at Hookipa.

I give the conditions a 2.5, because of the windswell and the bumps, but I realize that I am an extremely spoiled brat. For any European yesterday it was probably epic and german visitor Michael seems to agree. He also seems to love his new Hot Sails Maui KS3. Photo by Jimmie Hepp.

New swell on the rise today. I like the NW buoy reading a lot: 4f 19s is a beautiful start. I know it's not 20f at 20s like the previous one, but still...
Below is the graps of the NW and the Waimea buoy.
These are the 6am readings of Pauwela and Lanai instead:
3.9ft @ 8s from 56° (ENE)
3.6ft @ 11s from 329° (NW)
2.7ft @ 7s from 61° (ENE)
1.2ft @ 5s from 70° (ENE)

2.2ft @ 12s from 264° (W)
0.8ft @ 4s from 159° (SSE)
0.8ft @ 9s from 260° (W)
0.7ft @ 18s from 216° (SW)

The NW shows a direction of 310, which is a lot less west than forecasted, even though the direction seems to have gone more west since it started being recorded. I put red arrows on the graph so you guys can follow.
Nothing at the Pauwela buoy yet, but at the speed 20s waves travel, we are going to see something in the afternoon. Nothing in the morning.

Below is a snip from the NOAA website of the Waimea buoy. As you can see, the new long period swell is not even detectable there. That's why I love the breakdown of all the different swells that Surfline does.

So what are we doing today?
A little surfing in the early morning and some windsurfing in the afternoon! A reader pointed out that the Maui County @ 2km website is not dead, it just changed slightly the url. I updated the links, so now we can check their very reliable forecast again!
This is the 3pm map (sorry, I work till 2) and you can see that it's definitely going to be windy.

Have fun in the sun everyone!

Monday, January 26, 2015

Honolua has occasional chest high waves (at the cave) and six guys out. Maybe it will get better with a lower tide, but seen the inconsistency, i would not recommend the drive.
I suck at calling the bay!

1 26 15 morning call

4am main swell buoy readings:

6.2ft @ 12s from 296° (WNW)
3.5ft @ 10s from 303° (WNW)

5.6ft @ 13s from 317° (NW)
3.9ft @ 10s from 325° (NW)

Pauwela (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's north shore)
6.7ft @ 13s from 322° (NW)
5.7ft @ 7s from 57° (ENE)

West lanai Maui north shore (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's south shore)
2.6ft @ 13s from 286° (WNW)
Nothing to report from yesterday on my side, other than I spent all day booking not one, but two trips to Indo for this summer (!!) and then I caught 8 waves in one hour at Paia bay to celebrate that.
I'm sure the west side was good and that's where I'm going this morning to continue the celebration (which, in my particular case, never really stop every single day of my life).
The buoys above are still up, I'm sure I'll find some clean waves over there.

As for the north shore, it's gonna be windy, choppy and mixed up with the windswell which is already significant at the Pauwela buoy.

The wind map below shows a good fetch and a bad one. You guys should be able to tell by now.

In the closeup below, I marked three wind directions:
1 is what we had yesterday
2 is what we have this morning
3 is what we're gonna have tomorrow
And that is because that whole circulation is moving east pushed by the approach of the next front.

Windsurfing could and should happen on the north shore this afternoon, but my guess is that Hookipa is not going to look particularly clean. I haven't even looked at it since 48 hours, and I live 1 minute drive from it. What's the point? I know how onshore 6-8 feet look like...

Tomorrow is going to be a relatively small day before the next swell will start to show up late in the afternoon. But Wednesday, Thursday, Friday is when it should be really good, before the wind will turn all the way around the clock and start the cycle all over again.
The weather in Hawaii is so consistent that's sometimes it's not particularly stimulating to try to predict it...

Have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. All the sources for this post are permanently linked in the links section on the right of this blog.