Saturday, July 21, 2018

7:30 a.m. after a promising start the swell slowed down quite a bit in lahaina. crowded everywhere. Inconsistency is in the nature of the angular spreading.

6 a.m. lahaina Side has waist to shoulder hi waves occasionally bigger In Town. ukumehame moderate offshore. olowalu looked good but kind of packed already

Saturday 7 21 18 morning call

A SUP and a longboard session for me yesterday. Here's a uncle charging a fun section at Uluwalu.

3am significant buoy readings
South shore
2.5ft @ 14s from 161° (SSE)

2.4ft @ 14s from 162° (SSE)

2.9ft @ 14s from 197° (SSW)

2.5ft @ 15s from 180° (S)
0.5ft @ 25s from 191° (SSW)

2.3ft @ 15s from 192° (SSW)

Surfline took their time, but they did add the Lanai buoy to their fabulous page (which by itself is worth the subscription, imo) in which they break down the energy of all the different swells hitting a buoy. As you noticed, I didn't even bother checking it on the NOAA page in the meantime, as I consider that data not only empty of significance, but also deceiving. Link n.11, which is now subscribers only accessible.

Anyway, south swell went down 1s, but still solid. Yesterday late morning there were head high sets at Thousand Peaks, sorry if I didn't have the time to upload the report, but I was pretty busy as usual.
Here's how Pat Caldwell describes the source of this energy and its direction: The source was an area of seas greater than 30 feet to the SSE of New Zealand 7/12 with aim at the Americas. A great circle line from Hawaii to the source is 190 degrees. However, the angular spreading causes the swell direction upon arrival in Hawaii to have more straight south component.
Here's the map of the 12, for your convenience. As you can see, I circled the fetch in blue since it wasn't aimed straight at us. I also drew the "cock roach antennas" with a slight bend, because that's how the swells spread angularly when they propagate after being generated by a fetch of strong winds.

Uncle Pat continues his delightful analysis with: The next austral, mid latitude low pressure 7/13-14 strengthened and gained more northward aim to the fetch as it reached the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window south of French Polynesia. The near miss makes for greater error bars on the local surf estimate.
Below are the maps of July 13-14, I personally didn't see much on the first one, but don't forget it's only a midnight sample.

Here's the final bit of the analysis: The final austral source 7/15-17 was the strongest and had the best aim towards Hawaii at the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window. It had a wide area of seas over 30 feet with peak seas to 40 feet. The system moved steadily east away from the Hawaii swell window.
Extra-long wave periods of 20-25 seconds are predicted to slowly fill in locally on Saturday, making for inconsistent sets. It should be filled in by Sunday from 165-185 degrees to levels above average, peak Sunday night, and slowly drop to average levels from the same direction by Tuesday. Background level conditions are expected to take over by Wednesday.

Here's the maps of July 15 and 16. I don't particularly agree that the last fetch had the best aim at us (at least not in that midnight snapshot), but it had the strongest wind and guess what, Barbers is sensing half a foot 25s, just like uncle Pat (and the WW3 model) said. Gonna be interesting to spot those sets in the midst of the 14-15s ones, but that applies to wave weirdos like me. For most of the surfers, what counts is that there will be waves, coming out of... nowhere!

North shore
4.6ft @ 8s from 76° (ENE)

Small windswell, but at least from a decent direction. Wondering what's the orientation of the north shore of Maui? The answer is in one of the many maps of the epic post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines: 65 degrees.

Hookipa has a slightly better exposure to the windswell: 68 degrees. I believe today it's going to be small over there, but not flat.

Wind map at noon. Good stuff for both the down wind Maliko race and the windsurfing Kanaha Race.

North Pacific offers two distinct windswell fetches, the most remote of which will generate the higher period waves.

Just a weak fetch in the Tasman Sea on offer in the Southern Pacific. Much better than the nothingness of the past three days.

Morning sky.

Friday, July 20, 2018

7 a.m ukumehame has inconsistent waist to chest high waves. no wind at the moment, but it feels like it might start blowing anytime

Friday 7 20 18 morning call

A shortboard session for me yesterday. Below is the video of the second Maui to Molokai race that I talked about a few days ago. Thanks to the author Johann Meya for sharing it on youtube. And here's the insides I promised.

Since the first race (a week earlier) didn't have wind till the end and since he thought that the start was going to be from inside Honolua (with pretty much no wind), Zane chose to use the Gofoil Maliko 200, that would allow him a much easier foiling with no wind action. A week earlier he used the Iwa (one size smaller) and that has less lift, but it's also faster. Kai instead was on a pretty small MFC foil and you can see that he struggled just a bit more to make it foil at the very start (which was outside Honolua), but once it was up, he just moved faster. Plus, they had wind till the finish line this time. So, the size of the foil is obviously a key strategic decision, I wonder if one day there will be different sub-categories for foils of different area.

The video is great, enjoy.

Races/Contests of tomorrow Saturday 21.

- Another downwind race (this time a Maliko run) is coming up this Saturday, while the Molokai to Oahu one is on Sunday 29.
- The HSA Hurley surf contest will be on at the Lahaina harbor the whole weekend.
- The Maui Race Series slalom windsurfing race at Kanaha

Meanwhile in Bali the Rip Curl contest at Padang Padang was completed and the waves were amazing. If you have a couple of hours to fill, I recommend watching the final day. The commentary is poor (one guy makes me miss Dave Mel, imagine that), but the waves and the action are excellent.
Photo by Lawrence from this website (where you can find out the winner).

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

2.9ft @ 15s from 148° (SE)

2.9ft @ 15s from 174° (S)

3.1ft @ 15s from 166° (SSE)

2.6ft @ 17s from 178° (S)

Once again Barbers indicates 2s more in the period than the outer buoys and I can't get my head around that. What counts is that there is plenty energy in the water, I will report size and conditions later. In the meantime, this is a well overhead set at Ala Moana (which is always bigger than Lahaina, fyi). It seems very inconsistent though, with plenty flat spells in between sets.

North shore
4.4ft @ 8s from 85° (E)
2.8ft @ 6s from 62° (ENE)
Big drop in the windswell, Hookipa will be tiny today.
Wind map at noon.
North pacific shows the windswell fetch.
Only small angular spreading in the South Pacific, which confirms the downward trend starting mid next week.
Morning sky.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

6.00 a.m lahaina side has mixed energies and sizes from knee to head high. ukumehame no wind yet

Thursday 7 19 18 morning call

A shortboard, a SUP foiling and a windsurfing session for me yesterday. The waves in Lahaina were delightful again. Here's young surfing star Ocean Macedo enjoying some cross stepping on a Wave Storm.

This is young Annie Reickert looking down the line in all her elegance and beauty.

Here she starts to lean into the cut back.

And here you can see that the weight has subtly shifted on the front foot That is necessary as the foils accelerate out of the turns and would want to come out of the water otherwise.

When I got back to the north shore around 2pm, Pavillions was kind of pumping. This is Tanner Hendrickson.

And this looks like Justin Patao.

I have a new SUP foiling board (will talk about it soon), and I just added the footstraps (I'm a big fan of the stick on inserts), so I prolonged my SUP foiling session on the Lahaina waves until I found the sweet spot for them. Downwinder conditions on the north shore were pretty epic, but I had not enough juice at that point, so I wisely took a nap instead and went windsurfing afterwards. My desire of learning the downwinders on the SUP foil is there, but I'm not scarifying any possible fun to it. I'll learn when there's no waves on the south shore.

Jeremy Riggs was out there instead as always and dropped in some bombs on his two men canoe (notice the spare paddle attached to the iako).

3am significant buoy readings
South shore
2.7ft @ 15s from 142° (SE)

2.8ft @ 17s from 139° (SE)

1.7ft @ 13s from 183° (S)

1.6ft @ 13s from 184° (S)
1.3ft @ 20s from 177° (S)
1.2ft @ 16s from 189° (S)
Multiple energies at Barbers, which the reflection of an intricate map of fetches that happened in the Southern hemisphere about a week ago. Below is the detailed description of them by my guru Pat Cadlwell and below that the collage of the maps of July 11, 12, 13 and 14 that might help you follow it. The bottom line is: plenty waves till Tuesday. Unfortunately, not much after that, I have to add.

A series of low pressures S to SE of New Zealand 7/9-12 is expected to make overlapping events locally 7/18-21 from the SSW. The pattern of low pressure systems shifted east 7/13-16, leading to new overlapping events from more straight south locally 7/21-25.
The first system had gales behind a front to near 45S to the SE of New Zealand 7/9-10 with seas 20-25 feet. Long-period forerunners arrived locally 7/17 and the event is peaking 7/18 centered near 190 degrees.
The second pattern 7/10-11 was similar, with a low tracking east along 60S and gales behind a front pushing to 45S to the SE of New Zealand. Since it was acting upon existing seas, surf potential in Hawaii is greater. NOAA southern buoy 51002 shows an increase in the 16-19 second band 7/18. This event should be filled in on Thursday bringing breakers a notch above the summer average from 190 degrees.
The third low pressure 7/11-12 was much stronger with storm-force winds and seas within 30-40 feet. However, it was closer to Antarctic and more zonal, or west to east in the fetch. JASON altimeter showed seas higher than predicted by Wave Watch III 7/12 at both 12 and 18Z for the portion closest to the Hawaii great circle route along 195 degrees. This system should have long- period forerunners arriving 7/19 with the peak above average on 7/20. It should slowly decline from 185-200 degrees into the weekend as new swell arrive.
The jet stream trough east of New Zealand progressed east 7/13-17. A pair of low pressures gained strength at the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window.
The first one 7/13-14 had severe gales and broadened as the aim became more meridional just east of the Hawaii swell window. The fetch was broad with seas near 25 feet. It was close enough for angular spreading to bring swell locally. Long-period forerunners are due late on 7/20 locally from 180-190 degrees. It should peak on Saturday above average.
The second 7/15-17 was much stronger, to hurricane-force. The low center tracked steadily east making for a brief period in the Hawaii swell window. But the large fetch and seas to 40 feet should allow ample swell to reach Hawaii through angular spreading.
Extra-long wave periods within 20-25 seconds are expected to fill in locally 7/21 from 175-185 degrees. The event should climb above average Saturday night, peak Sunday, then slowly drop on Monday.

Overall, it should be a cracking day of surfing on the south shore, I'll report when I get there.

North shore
6.4ft @ 10s from 99° (E)
4.6ft @ 7s from 77° (ENE)

Pat Caldwell has some words also to describe what caused the uptick in the windswell:
A tropical disturbance south of the Island of Hawaii 7/18 is tracking steadily east. In combination with the seasonally semi- permanent surface high pressure over the central to northeast Pacific, an area of fresh to strong breezes north of the disturbance to 24N has allowed the rough, above average surf locally 7/18. ASCAT satellite at 9 AM HST 7/18 shows strong wind NNE of the Big Island. The PacIOOS/CDIP Hilo buoy in the morning 7/18 climbed to 10 feet significant wave height.

The waves at Hookipa were up to head high at sunset yesterday. Should be similar and pumping all day today.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific shows a fairly long windswell fetch.

South Pacific only shows a "blue" fetch, which means not aimed straight at us, but close enough to receive some angular spreading. Next week looking smaller than this current one on the south shore.

Morning sky.

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

6.30 a.m lahaina side is knee to waist and clean. ukumehame has texture

Wednesday 7 18 18 morning call

A longboard, a SUP foiling and a shortboard session for me yesterday, as this fantastic summer keeps on giving. I caught about 10 waves in the first, 20 in the second and 3 in the third. It might be that scarcity makes it precious, but the feeling of pushing hard on the fins, turning tight and hitting the lip when shortboarding remains my favorite, without a doubt.

It might also be because I'm not as good as Nathan here. He can ride 30-40 waves without coming down and he's gonna do the upcoming Molokai to Oahu (July 29) race on a SUP with the foil. It'll be interesting to see how he does compared Kai and Zane. Talking about which, I got some insides from the last Maui to Molokai race, but I'll wait until a great video that I saw on facebook gets uploaded on youtube.

3am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.7ft @ 14s from 162° (SSE)

1.9ft @ 14s from 166° (SSE)

2.4ft @ 14s from 140° (SE)

1.4ft @ 15s from 200° (SSW)
0.5ft @ 22s from 199° (SSW)

14-15s swell holds on and will provide most of the waves for the day (still the usual knee to waist is my guess, but I'll report when I get there), but Barbers also feels half a foot @ 22s which is a good sign for the upcoming days. The map of July 10 was an intricate one. Lots of strong fetches, which I circled in red if oriented towards us, in blue if oriented elsewhere but with hope of angular spreading.
In the midst of all that circling, I overlooked a direct fetch to the S of the Tasman Sea which, seen the direction at Barbers (which is more or less reliable), could be the source of the very long period energy. I made amend by circling it in black and publishing it again here below.

North shore
5.4ft @ 9s from 82° (E)
4.4ft @ 6s from 73° (ENE)

The period went up a second at Pauwela, and today the waves at Hookipa should reflect that. Occasionally shoulder to head high is my optimistic guess, seen the not ideal direction.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific has the windswell fetch, today with a bit of length.

South Pacific map has scattered little fetches, but overall pretty grim for the second day in a row.

Morning sky shows clouds moving in from the west.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

6.30 a.m lahaina side is smaller than yesterday but still knee to waist and clean. ukumehame windy