Friday, January 22, 2021

Friday 1 22 21 morning call

Fun windsurfing conditions yesterday at Hookipa shown in this photo by Jimmie Hepp from this album.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 14s from 218° (SW)

Lanai
1.2ft @ 14s from 188° (S)

Small kind southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency (there's not much).

North shore
NW1010
2.8ft @ 14s from 347° (NNW)

Waimea
2ft @ 15s from 324° (NW)

Pauwela

6.3ft @ 8s from 54° (ENE)
1.7ft @ 11s from 3° (N)
1.5ft @ 15s from 348° (NNW)
1.5ft @ 12s from 358° (N)

New low 15s NNW energy at the buoys, while a new large WNW swell is predicted to start rising tonight. It should be west enough to make the guess for the local waters challenging due to the shadowing of the upstream islands. For today, those 6.3ft 8s from 54 degrees will be the dominant energy in the water of the north shore and the eastern exposures. Head high plus peaks with occasional more organized NNW sets and poor conditions is my home guess for Hookipa.

This is one of the windiest Windguru maps I've ever seen for Maui. Notice how the wind is often ESE though, so the morning surf might actually be ok before the wind fills in. Also notice the very heavy rain predicted for Tuesday morning. Too far away to be concerned, we'll keep an eye on it in the coming days.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).




Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Thursday, January 21, 2021

8.15am

Hookipa has what seem to be mostly NE head high peaks with occasional slightly bigger NNW sets and some trades texture. 
5

Thursday 1 21 21 morning call

Thanks to Renew Your Spirit for the donation.

This photo by Jimmie Hepp out of this album shows the relatively short period but still sizey waves at Hookipa yesterday.


Yesterday I posted a photo of Leo Fioravanti at Honolua, here's the video he just posted about his trip to the Bay.


3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.1ft @ 16s from 191° (SSW)

Lanai
0.9ft @ 16s from 197° (SSW)

Yesterday I wrote that I couldn't find a possible source of the low long period energy at Barbers (today at both buoys), as usual Pat Caldwell illuminates us by saying:
A broad area of severe gales SE of New Zealand 1/12-13 aimed highest at the Americas is the source for the low sets locally on Oahu 1/20. , The event will likely linger a few days..

Below is the collage of the maps of Jan 11 through 13 that show the fetch mostly aimed at the Americas.


Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency (this last one probably being very low).

North shore
Waimea

4.9ft @ 12s from 353° (N)
4.4ft @ 8s from 19° (NNE)

Pauwela

4.8ft @ 12s from 342° (NNW)
3.9ft @ 8s from 31° (NE)

A mix of relatively short period energy from the NNW and NE is in the local waters. Size is still coming down since the weekend, home guess for Hookipa is head to head and a half with some wind.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Wednesday 1 20 21 morning call

Leonardo Fioravanti was one of the pro's that came from Oahu last Saturday to surf Honolua Bay. Looks like it was money well spent. Photo by OneMoreFoto.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
0.9ft @ 18s from 215° (SW)

That would be a remarkable size for a SW swell in this time of the year, but I'm afraid it's a glitch of some sort. In fact I didn't find a possible source on the fetch maps of a week ago and, more importantly, the Lahaina webcam doesn't show much. Check it out anyway if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101

7.1ft @ 8s from 44° (NE)
6.8ft @ 11s from 2° (N)

Waimea

6.2ft @ 12s from 339° (NNW)
5.7ft @ 9s from 13° (NNE)

Pauwela

6.7ft @ 13s from 334° (NNW)
6.1ft @ 9s from 356° (N)

NNW energy at the buoys with declining 13s period together with shorter period 9s northerly energy. Plenty size leftover on the north shore, home guess for Hookipa is head and a half plus. Good directions for the upper west side, Honolua should have waves.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Tuesday, January 19, 2021

More footage from last Saturday, this video shows the incredibly clean and big conditions that the Oahu's outer reefs experienced.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
10.8ft @ 14s from 347° (NNW)

Waimea

8.2ft @ 9s from 2° (N)
7.4ft @ 15s from 312° (NW)
6.2ft @ 12s from 320° (NW)
4ft @ 11s from 326° (NW)

Pauwela

10.1ft @ 14s from 324° (NW)
7.4ft @ 9s from 357° (N)

The mix of size and periods at Waimea tells a lot about the status of the ocean these days. Pat Caldwell called it a washing machine and that's how it's going to look also today. Hookipa too big and rough, seek for sheltered places if you're really desperate to surf. He also announced a shift in the jet stream:
The north Pacific jet stream is going through a transition this week as a strong ridge aloft favors the NE Pacific and a trough for the NW. Such patterns make for above average local trades and wind swell and more days of average to below average surf from WNW to N. This is a common pattern during La Nina winters.
As a result, the Windguru table looks a bit terrifying. Well, at least it's going to be easterly.


Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Monday, January 18, 2021

Monday 1 18 21 morning call

Yesterday was another day of large waves, but the swell declined enough that Hookipa was surfable in the afternoon and with the light pre-front kona wind the conditions were nearing a 10.
This instead is Honolua Bay on Saturday (this wave was obviously a 10): Kevin Sullivan, photo my OneMoreFoto.


Dan Taylor posted an album of the surfing action at Jaws on Saturday. How does this photo make you feel?

He also posted an album of the windsurfing action, out of which I picked this one: Zane Schweitzer on an absolute bomb.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion
.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101

12.2ft @ 16s from 330° (NW)
8.6ft @ 10s from 331° (NNW)
8.5ft @ 12s from 334° (NNW)

Waimea

6.9ft @ 9s from 321° (NW)
5.6ft @ 13s from 317° (NW)

Pauwela

5.8ft @ 13s from 325° (NW)
5.8ft @ 8s from 2° (N)

To introduce today's discussion, I'm going to use this paragraph out of this NOAA page (which I check daily, since the departure of Pat Caldwell and I just added at the top of to the GP's meteo website list):
Buoy 51101, located 180 nm NW of Kauai is reporting a significant wave height of 16 feet, which is in line with WAVE Watch III, as of 2 am HST. This swell will be spreading down the main Hawaiian Islands today and tonight, leading to another round of warning level surf to the exposed north and west shores of most islands. The High Surf Warning is in place for the exposed N and W facing shore through 6 am HST Tuesday. Although this NW swell is not as large as the previous one on Saturday, 15 feet compared to 19 feet, it still pose very dangerous conditions to life and property. Translated, we are expecting 30 to 40 foot surf at its peak along the north facing shores of Oahu Molokai, and Maui this afternoon

Below are the graphs of NW 51101 (which I refer to as NW101) and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. I put a red arrow to show when the black line (the significant wave height) started to rise again. At 14s it takes 18h from the NW buoys to Maui and that's exactly the delay showed by the graphs. For once, I'm using the significant wave height and not the height of each individual swells because of the nature of this round of energy: lots of periods arriving at the same time, together with some active wind and windswell.


What I consider to be the first proper front of the winter is in fact over the islands. That'll bring rain and NNE winds that will make the conditions on the north shore victory at sea. Surfing will suck, but that's part of winter and I was actually missing this kind of weather a bit. Good to give your body a rest once in a while.

If you're still interested at this point, my home guess for Hookipa this morning is head and a half to double and conditions going from poor to very poor as the onshore wind intensifies.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).

North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):




South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.



Sunday, January 17, 2021

Sunday 1 17 21 morning call `

Here's a selection of the photos and videos of yesterday's giant swell, starting with a photo by John Patao showing a terrifying wipeout that 19yo Polish windsurfer Adam Warchol experienced on his first wave of his second session ever at Jaws. Notice the surfer up in the lip that is about to go over the falls.

This is the video (by Damien Girardin) that shows the same wipeout.


A couple of more Jaws shots by Jeffrey Zerkle.

Makes you wonder if it's the same guy as above.

This is a frame grab (of a frame grab) of the Youtube streaming that Surfline organized for this swell. They had a camera on the chopper at Jaws and used the Waimea webcams too. At 1:21 there's some footage of Oahu's outer reefs and this might be a massive barrel of John John Florence.


This is the link to a video of a bunch of Kai Lenny's tow in waves. I wish I had some photos of Honolua... here's how Little Makaha looked like.




6am significant buoy readings and discussion
.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
9.2ft @ 15s from 295° (WNW)

Waimea
11.4ft @ 17s from 317° (NW)

Pauwela
13ft @ 17s from 320° (NW)

Below is the graph of Pauwela showing that the giant swell peaked yesterday afternoon. It's not going to small by any means today, just a smaller than yesterday and on the decline, but Hookipa and most north shore spots still too big to be surfed. Seek for sheltered spots, there should be no wind all morning. Honolua was firing yesterday and there will be waves (but with less favorable winds) also today.




Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.






Saturday, January 16, 2021

Friday 1 16 21 morning call

Too big everywhere on the north shore yesterday, the harbor was packed. This guy took off on the outside peak, brilliantly negotiated the double-up step and perfectly pulled in into the barrel.


I often wonder how the waves were in that area before the harbor was built, but it's easy to guess that they would have been out of control big like it was everywhere yesterday in the open ocean. Instead, thanks to the filtering action of the narrow opening, that's what we get to surf. I am happy that the Kahului harbor is there and was built the way it was built. I did not investigate on the topic, but that can easily be the best "inside of a harbor" wave in the world.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
16.8ft @ 19s from 333° (NNW)

Waimea

5.8ft @ 22s from 322° (NW)
4.6ft @ 13s from 331° (NNW)
3.5ft @ 12s from 327° (NW)

Pauwela

6.8ft @ 13s from 333° (NNW)
1.9ft @ 25s from 332° (NNW)

The Pauwela buoy was deployed yesterday and is back online.

Giant swell on the rise all day. The extremely complex evolution of the captured fetches that kept building seas over existing seas is comically illustrated by Pat Caldwell on his new SNN page, from which I'm going to snip just a small paragraph.
Commas, commas, and more commas– that’s what the satellite view of clouds over the north central Pacific has looked like for the active phases of recent weather systems. The first massive comma was 1/12-13, related to local surf 1/14-15. The next comma is seen 1/15, and is associated with the expected upcoming giant surf 1/16.

If you read the whole article, you might find that the below fetch maps of January 12 through 15 will help.


Below are the graphs of NW and Waimea together with the Surfline forecast. At 6.8ft 13s (Pauwela 4am) Hookipa would be totally surfable (at least by experts), but with rapidly building 1.9ft 25s at 4am, I would recommend to look for more sheltered places, as it might become out of control pretty quickly.

Many pros from Oahu and other places are already on the island to surf either Honolua Bay or Jaws. The local peak of the swell should be at sunset, but it will be a windy afternoon, so the conditions will be best at the bay, provided it will hold the size (which I'm not so sure). Super glassy instead tomorrow morning (hence good for Jaws), but the swell might have declined a bit already.You know, 40 ft faces instead of 60...

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Friday, January 15, 2021

Friday 1 15 20 morning call

Thanks to Kevin for the donation.

Yesterday I did a good job at going with the flow. First I tested some foils and I took this photo between sessions: five humans and a whale saying hi very close to shore.


Then I went to check Honolua bay. This is Tanner Hendrickson setting up a successfull barrel ride.


He added a lovely cutback to seal the deal.


Tons of body boarders out, here's Jacob Romero.

Tanner is also the guy who gets dropped in in this short video of a set. Amazing how, when you're that good, you're not fazed at all by that and just do your line like the other guy wasn't there.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, but that could be because they're "overwhelmed" by the NW energy. I foiled the south shore all day today and I had the clear impression that the small Tasman Sea swell was fading, so I'm not so sure where the waves at the webcam come from (it might be a wrap, if the swell is pretty northerly in our waters at the moment, which is possible). Sometimes, it doesn't matter, as long as there's waves... and there are! Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
8.5ft @ 14s from 338° (NNW)

NW001
8.9ft @ 14s from 318° (NW)

N
14.9ft @ 16s from 331° (NNW)

Waimea
10.1ft @ 14s from 328° (NW)

The XL swell peaked at the NW buoys (below the 101 one), but it's still very much up at the N one. Evidently, there's more energy missing us to our east. A new XL swell is on its heels, and it should be the largest yet, as Surfline calls for 19ft 18s for Saturday night. We won't see it today, but with 10ft 14s still at Waimea, it's going to be another day of big waves on the north shore. Home guess for Hookipa is still too big for most.


Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.