Monday, November 23, 2020

Monday 11 23 20 morning call

No photos of the day, here's the latest video released by Kai Lenny. 33minutes, haven't watched it yet.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
5.5ft @ 12s from 335° (NNW)

Waimea
3.2ft @ 13s from 330° (NW)

Mokapu
8.7ft @ 9s from 64° (ENE)

Hilo
10.5ft @ 9s from 83° (E)

NW swell not looking particularly impressive at Waimea, at least compared to the really high windswell this episode of blustery trades has created. Hookipa will be well overhead and blown out, the direct eastern exposures will be drowning material.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Sunday, November 22, 2020

Sunday 11 22 20 morning call

I gave Hookipa a 1.5 yesterday. I confirmed it after surfing it, yet it was fun. Wherever there's a challenge, there's fun.


Conditions like that suit the windsurfers a lot better as they can go around closing out sections or use them to their advantage. Photo from Jimmie Hepp's album of the day.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
6.5ft @ 13s from 343° (NNW)

Waimea

2.5ft @ 11s from 351° (N)
2.3ft @ 13s from 320° (NW)

Mokapu
10.7ft @ 9s from 56° (ENE)

New NW pulse shows pretty solid at the NW buoys, and should be on the rise all day locally. It's probably in the water already, but with more than 10ft 9s of ENE windswell is going to be noticeable only in the late morning or afternoon. Another very windy day, so conditions (for surfing) will be horrible on the north shore. Home guess for Hookipa is overhead, blown out and all over the place. Honolua will have much cleaner waves, specially in the afternoon.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Saturday, November 21, 2020

6.30am

Hookipa is head high and blown out. 
1.5

Saturday 11 21 20 morning call

This is my pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of yesterday action at Hookipa.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW001
3.9ft @ 12s from 345° (NNW)

Waimea
2ft @ 14s from 321° (NW)

Mokapu
6.5ft @ 8s from 64° (ENE)

A couple of new NW swells are predicted to arrive during the weekend. Here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetches:

1) Low to medium gales behind an east-moving front west of the Date Line north of 40N 11/16-17 grew seas near 20 feet. The winds were much less and seas much lower than the source in the similar area that produced the 11/19 event locally. Thus, the dominant wave period is expected to be shorter, along with the arriving swell height, resulting in small to moderate breakers. This short-lived event should pick up Saturday from 310-335 degrees and peak late Saturday PM well below the seasonal average, then drop into Sunday.

2) The next fetch set up 11/18-19 between the Kuril Islands to the Date Line north of 40N, with a similar eastward shift behind a front. The front reached 40N, 160W, NNW of Hawaii, by early Friday 11/20. It is modelled to be east of the Hawaii swell window by late 11/20. A long, wide fetch of lower-end gales grew seas 15-20 feet, nosing to near 1200 nm Friday. The lower wind speeds mean the dominant wave period of the swell will lean toward moderate levels of 12-16 seconds. The event is expected to build mid Sunday from 310-345 degrees, peak Sunday night near to a notch under the average, then slowly decline Monday from the same direction. With the tail of the fetch 2400 nm away early Friday, the decay phase of the event should be long-lived in the small category. This source should keep small breakers Tuesday into Wednesday from the same direction.

Below is the collage of the maps of Nov 16 through 20 that will help follow the above description. I numbered the two fetches for your convenience. Look at the fetch on the map and then go see (even better surf) the swell and you'll build a valuable knowledge.


The buoys show pretty low energy from the first one (assuming those 2ft 14s at Waimea are that), so I wouldn't expect this one to be particularly big. More energy will be provided by the elevated ENE windswell shown by Mokapu. Conditions will be pretty horrible everywhere on the north shore, due to the very blustery winds predicted over the weekend. It's also true that usually those winds in winter time bring a lot of rain, so in between squalls there could be windows of decency.

Home guess for Hookipa this morning is head high and blown out.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Friday, November 20, 2020

6.45am

Hookipa has head to head and a third sloppy (high tide) waves. Conditions change constantly with wind and rain. 
5

Friday 11 20 20 morning call

Hookipa yesterday morning: Kai Lenny surfing and shooting.


Later on the windsurfers faced challenging conditions.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW
5.2ft @ 12s from 333° (NNW)

Waimea
4.1ft @ 14s from 322° (NW)

Mokapu
4.9ft @ 7s from 66° (ENE)

NW swell peaked yesterday and today it's going to be slowly declining but still pretty elevated all day. Assuming there's 4ft 14s in the Maui waters, Hookipa will have overhead (and possibly blown out) waves to start the day with.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Thursday, November 19, 2020

6.30am

Hookipa has a mix of leftover short period shoulder to head high waves and inconsistent long period overhead sets. 
Waves are less sloppy than yesterday, but there's a bit of chop induced by the light trades. 
5

Thursday 11 19 20 morning call

 Thanks to Renew Your Spirit for the donation.

Two backhand wraps to illustrate the waves at Hookipa yesterday morning.


Every time I paddle out after having posted a beach report, I question it. Sometimes, I find it slightly different than what it looked from the shore, some other times I find it VERY different and some other times, by the time I paddled out, the conditions have changed already.
Yesterday instead was one of those days in which I think I nailed it perfectly:
"Hookipa has sloppy head to head and a third high waves with relatively clean faces. High tide doesn't help. 5"
The only way that report could have been more accurate would have been with a mention the very occasional head and a half sets... but I didn't see any while I was watching. Btw, I had a wave that was an 8, but that didn't change the fact that overall for me it was a 5.
Please keep in mind that the beach reports are subjective and that the conditions at Hookipa usually change by the minute.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.2ft @ 13s from 182° (S)

Lanai

1.2ft @ 12s from 190° (S)
0.8ft @ 15s from 185° (S)

Unidentified sources for the small southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Going to guess that instead there's not much at all.

North shore
NW001
7.4ft @ 15s from 337° (NNW)

N
3.6ft @ 10s from 1° (N)

Waimea
2.7ft @ 16s from 321° (NW)

Mokapu
5.7ft @ 9s from 18° (NNE)

Hilo
6.8ft @ 8s from 68° (ENE)

New long period NW swell picked up pretty solidly at the NW buoys and should be filling in steadily throughout all day. Below are the graphs of the NW001 and Waimea buoys together with the Surfline forecast, which, in this case, seems not only late, but also under estimating. It seems to me that by sunset time there might already 4-5 ft 15s or more, we'll see.


The fetch (n.2) was indeed pretty solid (specially on the 15th), as shown in the collage of the maps of Nov 13 to 16, already posted a couple of days ago and below reported again for your convenience.

Let's not forget about the shorter period NNE to ENE energy recorded by Mokapu and Hilo, which will probably still be the predominant one at dawn.
Without the Pauwela buoy, it's really hard to guess the size of the waves at Hookipa. Based on all the above considerations, I'm gonna call head high with possible inconsistent head and a half sets, but the beach report will be more precise.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.



Wednesday, November 18, 2020

6.45am

Hookipa has sloppy head to head and a third high waves with relatively clean faces. High tide doesn't help. 
5

Wednesday 11 18 20 morning call

I put a carbon boom one a wing that had handles and yesterday I tested it. The boom attachments can be built a lot stronger than that, that's just the first solution I came up with.


The short period northerly waves arrived at Hookipa in the afternoon.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers

1.2ft @ 17s from 189° (S)
1.2ft @ 14s from 184° (S)


Lanai

1.3ft @ 13s from 193° (SSW)
1ft @ 16s from 200° (SSW)

That foot of long period energy at the buoys is totally unpredicted. Just looked at the fetches maps and couldn't find a possible source for it. I doubt there will be much, but check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
N

4.9ft @ 10s from 4° (N)
3.8ft @ 12s from 359° (N)

Waimea

4.1ft @ 9s from 5° (N)
3.5ft @ 11s from 2° (N)

Mokapu

4.6ft @ 8s from 23° (NNE)
4ft @ 11s from 2° (N)

Hilo
6.4ft @ 9s from 13° (NNE)

Short period northerly energy is higher at Hilo than at Mokapu, which confirms the fact that the highest energy is missing us to our east. Maui has probably something in between the readings of those two buoys. Hookipa should still have waves the size of the photo above: head high to possibly overhead.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Tuesday, November 17, 2020

8.30am

Hookipa is mostly flat with some waist to chest high waves here and there. Bit of wind. 
1.8

Tuesday 11 17 20 morning call

Hookipa yesterday morning.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.8ft @ 13s from 189° (S)

Lanai

1.1ft @ 13s from 208° (SSW)
1.1ft @ 15s from 195° (SSW)

Very small southerly energy at the buoys,check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. I've been watching for a while and haven't seen a single set breaking at the harbor.

North shore
NW001
8.2ft @ 8s from 34° (NE)

Waimea
1.9ft @ 10s from 326° (NW)

Mokapu
3.4ft @ 8s from 70° (ENE)

Hilo
4.5ft @ 8s from 93° (E)

Very little energy leftover from the NW is still recorded by Waimea, but I doubt it will play any role at all. What we have to start the day is mostly the easterly energy shown by Mokapu and Hilo. So small waves at Hookipa and the eastern exposures is my call. Things might improve later today as new short period energy should start filling in this afternoon. Here's how Pat Caldwell descbribed the evolution of the fetch:

1) A large area of surface low pressure has filled the NE Pacific 11/13-16. The fetch aimed at Hawaii has been well sub-gale over the 345-010 degree band though the head of the fetch has reached to 28N due north of Hawaii Monday morning. Proximity increases surf potential. Short-period waves from this nearby source should trend breakers up locally Tuesday PM, though well below the seasonal average.

ASCAT satellite 11/15-16 showed near gale breezes over a wide, long fetch further NNE of Hawaii north of 35N with highest seas aimed NE of Hawaii. This should send short- to low-end moderate-period swell by Wednesday in the 10-12 second band that should keep active, below average breakers from 000-020 degrees. It should trend down Thursday
.

A second source of longer period energy that should pick up late Wednesday (proably Thursday for Maui) is described below.
2) Further west, a compact, low-pressure system moved east from the Kuril Islands 11/14 with fetch of gales over the 310-320 degree band. Central pressure dropped to 976 mb 11/15 as it occluded near 50N, 175E. Winds increased to storm-force with seas near 30 feet aimed highest NE of Hawaii in an area about 2000 nm away. The system moved NNE into 11/16 as it weakened sharply. The remote distance lowers local surf height potential and makes for less consistent sets, just as was observed from this past weekend`s event of similar source region.

Long-period forerunners are due locally late Wednesday PM. The event should be filled in Thursday morning and peak Thursday PM near to just below the seasonal average from 310-330 degrees. The event should trend down Friday into Saturday as the swell height and dominant wave period slowly drop from the same direction
.

Below is the collage of the maps of Nov 13 thorugh 16. I numbered the fetches accordingly to the above description.


As you can see, there's a lot of angular spreading involved in the first source, as most of that energy will miss us to our east. That always makes the prediction of the size particularly challenging, we'll have to wait and see what we get. 

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Monday, November 16, 2020

8.15am

Hookipa is waist to shoulder high with occasional leftover nw sets up to head high and a bit of texture.
4.3

Monday 11 16 20 morning call

Nice waves at Hookipa yesterday morning.


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.5ft @ 14s from 189° (S)

Lanai
1.7ft @ 14s from 191° (SSW)

The numbers are decent, but what counts is the Lahaina webcam. Check it if interested, for size, conditions and consistency, this is a nice set.


North shore
NW001
2.2ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)

Waimea
2ft @ 11s from 321° (NW)

Mokapu
3.6ft @ 8s from 74° (ENE)

Hilo
4.7ft @ 8s from 90° (E)

NW swell trickling down to minimal energy level, with the easterly windswell is also dwindling. Small waves at Hookipa (probably max shoulder head high) and on the eastern exposures.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Sunday, November 15, 2020

7am

Hookipa is head high with bigger sets up to head and a half and clean.
7.5

Sunday 11 15 20 morning call

Good waves yesterday at Hookipa. I remember this drop to be pretty steep for my standards.


Still not even remotely close to this one nicely stuck by Matt Meola.

Him and Kai Lenny (here) were across the channel doing rotations at any possible opportunity. I'm old school and prefer a good old bottom turn better (plus the photo shows the wave a lot better).
5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
1.5ft @ 15s from 203° (SSW)

Now that the NW swell is down to 12s, we can say that that 15s energy IS from the SSW. As a matter of fact, below is the collage of the maps of Nov 6 through 8 (which I was too lazy to investigate yesterday). Nice Tasman Sea fetch, I should look for some Fiji photos from a few days... I bet it was pretty big.


Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency, which is very low, like all Tasman Sea swells.



North shore
NW101
3.2ft @ 12s from 330° (NW)

Waimea
3.6ft @ 12s from 314° (NW)

Mokapu
4.8ft @ 8s from 69° (ENE)

NW swell is already down to 12s today, with 3 and a half feet, I'm gonna call Hookipa head to head and a half and good conditions (no wind) this morning. Possible beach report later. Easterly energy down to 5ft 8s, easterly exposures should still have fun size waves.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.