Monday, November 18, 2019

6am hookipa looks head to head and a half and average shape in the dark.
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Monday 11 18 19 morning call

Trades were back yesterday, Maui didn't look like Bali anymore, but Pipe looked like Pipe again. Photo by liquid barrel.


My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the windsurfing action at Hookipa.



3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam to see if there's anything worth it.

North shore
NW101
4.6ft @ 7s from 47° (NE)
4.3ft @ 11s from 352° (N)
3.8ft @ 8s from 11° (NNE)
3.2ft @ 10s from 356° (N)

Waimea
7.7ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)

Pauwela
6.9ft @ 8s from 43° (NE)
5.9ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)
 
7ft 8s from 43 is a windswell reading that I sure wasn't expecting this morning. Went through the fetch maps and still couldn't find the source fetch. Hilo and Mokapu feel it too, so it's not a buoy glitch, it's really there. With 6ft 11s from 330 on top of that and with the predicted trades, the waves on the north shore shouldn't be as clean as they've been in the first week of November. We're definitely back to average conditions and it's gonna get even worse with the strengthening of the trades towards the end of the week.
Pretty good size waves at Hookipa, the challenge will be to find a place with clean ones.

Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
7:26a  +2.3                       11:53p  +0.4                       6:39a   5:46p   


North Pacific has a strong NW fetch. 10ft 15s from 314 predicted by Surfline Thursday night.


South Pacific has a fetch in the Tasman Sea.


Morning sky. I saw a bit of counterclockwise rotation that makes me hope in at least a morning with light wind.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Sunday 11 17 19 morning call

Another day of gorgeous waves on the north shore. This winter started as good as last summer did.


Just before I left Hookipa to go to work. This swell had a wonderful direction for The Point (and almost everywhere else on the north shore).


My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the day.


Erik Aeder posted a photo of Paige Alms at Jaws on Friday. Extremely high level of sketchiness, specially for the guy in front.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Local buoys only feeling the NW wrap, so the only way to find out the size of the waves will be Lahaina webcam. The map below is from a week ago (Nov 10) and it shows a SSE fetch, so if there's something, you know where it's from.


North shore
NW101
8.3ft @ 14s from 324° (NW)
4.4ft @ 10s from 330° (NW)

Waimea
8ft @ 14s from 314° (NW)
3.5ft @ 10s from 322° (NW)

Pauwela
6.7ft @ 15s from 312° (NW)
6ft @ 13s from 323° (NW)
 
Beautiful numbers at the buoys, unfortunately the contemporary presence of different periods/sizes will make the breaking pattern not as predictable. More specifically: the sets of the longer period/bigger energy will break more outside of the sets of the shorter period/smaller energy. So if you sit for the first ones, you'll see a lot of good insiders rolling underneath you, while if you sit on the inside, you'll get caught by the bigger sets.

Below is the graph of the three reported buoys. As expected, this swell, despite being pretty solid at the NW one, didn't get as big locally because of the partially blocked westerly direction. Still pretty big though, Hookipa will probably be around double overhead, can't post a beach report as I have a board meeting at 6am elsewhere.


Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
6:17a  +2.4                       10:47p  +0.2                        6:39a   5:46p   

The convey belt of the North Pacific's jet stream is working smoothly, you can see three fetches almost chasing each other. 10ft 15s on Thursday predicted by Surfline from the strongest and more distant one.


All quiet down south.


Morning sky.

Saturday, November 16, 2019

6.30am hookipa is head and a half with occasional bigger sets and clean despite a hint of trades.
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Saturday 11 16 19 morning call

Yesterday morning I was driving around preparing for a mid day surf guide and I did this little video that explains something about the Waiehu coast. I talk about the same thing (with maps) on the post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines.


Harbor had perfect foiling waves, but it was slow and packed. In this picture brother Randy is shifting his weight on the front foot (by leaning forward on his hips) in order to keep the foil down (as it was flying a bit high). Love the classic glittery sparkles.


I did not check Jaws instead, but that's just because my customer only wanted head high waves... which we ultimately found. This is Annie Reickert by Erik Aeder.



3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
2.3ft @ 14s from 303° (WNW)

Lanai
1.8ft @ 15s from 206° (SSW)

The 14s reading at Barbers is obviously the wrap of the NW swell, which makes me think that the 15s reading at Lanai is also that. Unfortunately, the fact that it managed to wrap around the islands and somehow hit Lanai from 206 degrees doesn't mean that Lahaina will have the same wrap. The webcam looks pretty flat, in fact, but check it out yourself if interested.


North shore
NW101
10.8ft @ 13s from 313° (NW)
5.2ft @ 18s from 304° (WNW)

Waimea
4.8ft @ 14s from 341° (NNW) 

Pauwela
4.9ft @ 14s from 348° (NNW)
2.1ft @ 9s from 21° (NNE)
 
The simultaneous arrival of both 13 and 18 seconds periods from the new swell at the NW buoy is beautifully explained by Pat Caldwell (timing is for Oahu, Maui about 4 hours later).
 
A new low pressure is expected to bring up the surf on Saturday with a wide spread in wave periods from 290-320 degrees. Typically, longest wave periods arrive at a target first, since the longer ones travel faster. But in this case, the weather system is modelled to nose near gales to within 500 nm of Hawaii on Friday. Thus, the shorter periods waves of 10-14s from the nearby source should arrive first on Saturday morning, bring surf near the November average from 300-330 degrees.

But close on its heels is the long-period wave energy, that was produced 11/13-14 while the low was west of the Date Line. The low center was near 40N, 170E Wednesday morning when ASCAT satellite registered the strongest winds to storm force. The center of the low jogged SE into Thursday, setting up a captured fetch over the 295-310 degree band. Winds slowly weakened to severe gales by late Wednesday. Models show a continued decline to gales as the fetch over the 295-310 degree band moves east of the Date Line. The low is expected to lose steam considerably by Friday as it lifts away to the NE.

The largest surf locally is expected from the long-period wave energy from 295-310 degrees. It should pick up Saturday afternoon to levels above average, peak overnight, and slowly drop on Sunday from 295-330 degrees. Heights are predicted to fall below average Sunday night.
 
Below are the maps of Nov 13, 14 and 15. The fetch of the swell that peaked yesterday is n.1, the one of the new one is n.2.
 
Below are the graphs of the three reported buoys. Once again, after a temporary relatively manageable start in the early morning, the size should increase steadily throughout all day.


Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
5:19a  +2.5   2:59p  +1.2  12:22p  +1.1  10:05p   0.0    6:38a   5:46p    

North Pacific has yet another lovely NW fetch and  WNW one off Japan. No lack of swells in these days.



South Pacific has a fetch deep in the Tasman Sea.


Morning sky.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Friday 11 15 19 morning call

A friend of mine recently said:"in the last couple of weeks, Maui's been looking like Bali!". That sums up perfectly how the quality of the waves on the north shore improves without the trades. That's a beauty from yesterday.


My three beach reports (6.30, 7.30 and 8am) reflect the quick rise of the swell. Here's an early photo.

Here's a later one (Paige Alms).

And here's three later ones from the epic windsurfing session: Jimmie Hepp's album.


FishBowlDiaries album.

 
 Si Crowther album.


5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Unfortunately the Surfline buoy page (link n.11) is only showing the NW buoy at the moment I write this, so we have to rely exclusively on the webcam. This is a nice one, but check it out yourself if interested, as there's not much overall.

   
North shore
NW101
4.8ft @ 16s from 317° (NW)

Below is the graph of the only buoy available at this moment. It shows that the swell peaked yesterday and is now declining. You can shift that graph of 16h and conclude that locally the start of the morning will be pretty solid (probably still around 8ft 16s, hence Hookipa too big for most) and only show some decline in the second half of the day.


Wind map at noon. Complete lack of wind till 11. Again.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
4:30a  +2.6   2:45p  +1.4  11:02a  +1.1   9:31p  -0.2    6:38a   5:46p    

North Pacific's main fetch today is the NW one that has got pretty close. Another big swell on Sunday, even though, because of the more westerly direction, some spots on Maui might end up being smaller than the current one.

Nothing from the South.

Morning sky.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

8am the first overhead set just came in  at hookipa. Improving by the hour.
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7.30am hookipa now has inconsistent head high sets with flat spells in between.
6
6.30am hookipa is flat to chest high and clean. No proper nw sets in 10 minutes. Will look different tonight.
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Thursday 11 14 19 morning call

No Maui photos from yesterday, here's Cloudbreak instead by Brothers Surf Tours. Too small to get excited here, if we're lucky we'll get some knee high stuff from that swell in 3-4 days. Not many will care, as the waves will be big on the north shore at the same time.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers            
0.6ft @ 18s from 197° (SSW)

Lanai
1.4ft @ 11s from 186° (S)                        
0.5ft @ 18s from 225° (SW)
 
Tiny leftover 11s S energy at Lanai, but what's nice is the half a foot 18s SW energy that cause some very inconsistent fun size sets in between long flat spells. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested.


North shore
NW101
7.6ft @ 13s from 321° (NW)

Waimea
1.9ft @ 9s from 345° (NNW)
1.7ft @ 11s from 320° (NW)
1.6ft @ 15s from 342° (NNW)

Pauwela
2.9ft @ 9s from 42° (NE)
1.8ft @ 11s from 326° (NW)
1.1ft @ 5s from 52° (ENE)
0.9ft @ 16s from 347° (NNW)
 
New NW/NNW swell on the rise at the buoys. Below is the graph of the three reported ones. Based on GP's rule of thumb for the traveling time (16h @16s +/-1h -/+1s), I drew the predicted rise locally at Pauwela: pretty steady throughout all day. Size should be pretty small at dawn, but it could be well overhead by sunset. I will try to report from Hookipa before 7am.


Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
3:48a  +2.6   2:25p  +1.5  10:06a  +1.0   9:00p  -0.3    6:37a   5:47p    

North Pacific has the following three fetches:
- a brand new one just off Japan
- the WNW one (Sunday swell) getting closer to us (captured)
- the NNW one (tonight, Friday and Saturday swell)  now mostly aiming at the mainland.


Not much from the south.


Morning sky.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Wednesday 11 13 19 morning call

It was a Kai Penny kind of day.


The first surfer that I didn't recognize while filming at Hookipa was little brother Ridge! Btw, the sick turn I posted yesterday was by Ian Walsh (thanks Alex).


If you followed the Kai Penny videos from the beginning (all grouped under the kai penny videos label), you should remember that the nickname was given by my Argentinian friends to one of them. I'll keep him anonymous (and crop his face off), but yesterday he got a smoking wave. I wouldn't expect nothing less from The Original!


The windsurfers are still in town and are desperate for wind, so they all jumped on the unexpected opportunity yesterday afternoon. My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
2.2ft @ 13s from 195° (SSW)                         
0.3ft @ 20s from 199° (SSW)

Lanai
2.2ft @ 12s from 171° (S)                        
0.3ft @ 20s from 200° (SSW)
 
Off season south swell now down to a couple of feet 12-13s. Notice the 0.3ft 20s SSW reading both buoys register. Went to look for the fetch in the collage of the maps of Nov 6 to 9 below, but couldn't find anything significant on the 6th, so I wouldn't be too excited about it.


The Lahaina webcam shows mostly flat, but with some quality small waves once in a while. Check it out yourself if interested.


North shore
Waimea
2.7ft @ 8s from 346° (NNW)
1.3ft @ 13s from 286° (WNW)

Pauwela
4.3ft @ 9s from 25° (NNE)

NW swell went down a low and all we have left now is 4.3ft 9s energy from the NNE. Still enough to make some fun size waves at Hookipa, I might not be able to report as I have a early morning board meeting.

Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
3:10a  +2.6   2:04p  +1.7   9:20a  +0.9   8:32p  -0.3    6:36a   5:47p

North Pacific has the same two fetches we saw yesterday:
1) the WNW one is intensifying and moving closer to us (Sunday swell)
2) the NW one associated with the very deep low that reached 946mb yesterday (Friday swell).
Check the direction on the map on the right and see how perfect the position of fetch n.2 is for Honolua Bay. It also makes my thing that the first swell is going to be bigger in Maui, as the second one will be partially blocked by the upstream islands.


South Pacific's most relevant fetch is the one in the Tasman Sea.


Morning sky.