Friday, May 26, 2017

10am olowalu chest high and fun, but still slow and packed

6.45am hookipa looked 8s chest high and relatively clean from lanes. Lahaina side waist to chest with occasional bigger sets and clean. No wind at Ukumehame.

Friday 5 26 17 morning call

Lahaina surf session and early Hookipa windsurf session for me yesterday.

You can tell it's low tide.


Hold that reef.


There were some occasional leftover overhead waves at Hookipa, but mostly it was shoulder to head high. Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.


Significant buoy readings 4am
South shore

W
1.6ft @ 17s from 149° (SE)
1.5ft @ 12s from 152° (SSE)

SW
1.6ft @ 17s from 211° (SW)
1.4ft @ 12s from 178° (S)
 
SE
1.5ft @ 17s from 183° (S)
1.2ft @ 13s from 175° (S)

All the outer buoys show similar readings. The (declining) 12-13s energy belongs to the swell that had blessed us the whole week, the 17s one is the new "big" one. I've been putting "big" in quotes, because despite being the biggest so far this season, I don't think this swell is going to be particularly big at all. I wasn't impressed by what the Samoa buoy registered, at least at the beginning. Unfortunately, I forgot to save those readings, so you'll have to trust me on that.
In the meantime, the Lahaina cam is showing some beautiful long lines, so there's waves that's for sure.



North shore
Pauwela
4.2ft @ 8s from 12° (NNE)
1ft @ 12s from 351° (N)

What you read is what is in the water. Not much changes expected on the north shore, if not a slow decline in the windswell, since the generating fetch has become gradually smaller/weaker.

Wind map at 2pm shows some light trades on the north shore. Unfortunately this model is not being particularly accurate around the Thousand Peaks area, which is on the most difficult to predict. I'm still missing the MC2km maps, to be honest.


North Pacific maps only show a very weak northerly windswell fetch.


South Pacific maps show some strong storm activities, but not much of those winds are oriented towards us.


Morning sky looks totally clear again (yesterday was ridiculously beautiful and sunny).


Thursday, May 25, 2017

8am lahaina side waist high with bigger sets and clean. The wind at peaks was ok, just small because the low tide.

7am hookipa has head high 8s waves and light trades.
3

Thursday 5 25 17 morning call

Just a SUP session on the Lahaina side for me in a spot that was handling the low tide beautifully. In the afternoon, Jimmie Hepp went to work and put the result of it in this gallery. This is legendary Japanese man Yoshi. I believe he's close to 70 years old.


Yoshi's wave looks pretty smooth, but most of them looked like this instead.


In this phase of my life, I'd rather surf small and clean than sail big and blown out.


5am significant buoy readings
South shore

SW
1.4ft @ 13s from 136° (SE)

That's the only southerly energy reading I found and it would seem like an indication that today that energy is really small. BUT, look at the set I just "caught" on the webcam... that's chest high. The size will be greatly reduced around the 8.50am minus low tide. Do check the webcams yourself, please, consistency might be an issue.


North shore
Pauwela
5.7ft @ 8s from 26° (NNE)

Pauwela's reading are totally in line with the history of the fetch of the northerly swell. 26 degrees is a great direction for The Point at Hookipa, which I heard wasn't as bad as I judged it from the road yesterday. Should stay similar throughout the day.

Couple of words about tomorrow's "big" south swell.

First, Pat Cladwell's analysis of its arrival time (you can read his whole wonderful discussion on link n.9): The pacioos/cdip american samoa buoy provides an ideal gauge for swell within 190-200 degrees since it is smack dab between the wave source and Hawaii. The buoy showed a peak in the 14-18 second bands within 4-10 am HST Tuesday 5/23. With a distance of about 2200 nm, and the travel speed of the 17 second energy at 600 nm per day, that is roughly a 3.5 day travel for the peak energy, which has the event fully filled in by 4 pm HST Friday. This represents the peak of the spectrum, but lower, longer period energy will begin locally about a day ahead, Thursday afternoon, with inconsistent sets trending up. The spin-up time through Friday morning should see occasional sets above average.

I only feel like adding that for southerly swells the arrival time between Oahu and Maui is pretty much the same.

Below is the Surfline forecast that shows the way the swell should climb up. Bigger arrows mean longer periods. (in the meantime, the Lahaina webcam keeps showing sets... this week has been really good).


2pm wind map shows ligther than yesterday trades, but still trades. Note to self: possible windfoiling opportunity.


I'm loving the Meteogram automatically generated maps, I pretty much don't need to circle the fetches anymore. But I still like the Windy graphical representation of the winds, so I'm going to separate north and south Pacific and put the two maps next to each other. Map on the left is around midnight, map on the right is 8pm last night, so only four hours difference.
The map on the right marks with different colors only the winds that are directly oriented towards Hawaii (which is what a fetch is). I believe that, depending on the size of the fetch and thanks to the angular spreading, we'll receive energy from the winds around that colored area too.

North Pacific shows very little wave generation for us today.


South Pacific instead has a monster fetch way down south and that will give the "big" weekend swell a nice rebound mid next week. Map on the right shows that only the bottom part of that strong winds area is directly oriented towards us. Probaly 8 days of travel time from down there, so the rebound should happen around Thursday/Friday next week.


Morning sky.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

7.15am hookipa looked disorganized, lahaina is clean but the low tide is killing the size at the moment. Knee to waist is all I saw until a shoulder high set hit just now (not the photo)

5 24 17 morning call

Three sessions with three different boards is my yesterday's booty. That's the only booty I can offer you today, but I took some photos to show you the pretty conditions of the Lahaina side coast.

Plenty colors in this one.

This nose rider lady had such grace in her cross steps. Here she's moving forward.

Hanging.


And walking back.

There were some gems.

Showing some possess (or however that thing that Potts says is spelled).

Jason Hall doing his dolphin technique.

With success.

Sorry, that's yesterday's dinner. The reason I post food/nutrition stuff here is to inspire the readers to move towards the scientifically proven healthiest diet for a human being: unprocessed whole plants. Needless to say, it was delicious.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore

W
2.6ft @ 14s from 123° (ESE)

NW energy going down and all of a sudden the southerly one reappears at the W buoy. It didn't go anywhere, it was just shadowed by the stronger NW and the buoys couldn't detect it. Those numbers are totally solid and the first set I saw on the Lahaina webcam was head high. Here it is, I snapped it a little late, but you can judge from the white water. I'm absolutely loving this swell, since, unlike the upcoming weekend one, is not a "conclamated" one. That means that not many people know about it, because it wasn't announced/hyped by the news and other low quality forecast sources.


North shore
Pauwela
5.9ft @ 8s from 21° (NNE)           
4.4ft @ 11s from 332° (NNW)

Northerly energy winding down in period and turning more and more towards the east, but still plenty at the Pauwela buoys for another day of waves on the north shore. At sunset yesterday they were big enough to buckle my favorite board. Hookipa sensor reading 8(5-14)mph from the east, I might go have a look just to kill some time to pass the crazy low tide before driving to Lahaina once again.



Wind map at 2pm shows trades in the usual 21-24mph range.


It takes me a stupid amount of time to put them together, but it makes sense to have the North and South Pacific wind and fetches maps together. I'm gonna try to do this from now on, please leave feedbacks if you have any.
North Pacific current wind and fetches maps show a couple of small NNE/NE fetches.


South Pacific current wind and fetches maps show a couple of very distant small fetches. Nothing like the past few days though.


Morning sky looks very clear.


Tuesday, May 23, 2017

6.30am hookipa looked overhead and light wind. Lahaina is waist to chest with occasional bigger sets and light wind. Peaks was windy.

Tuesday 5 23 17 morning call

After a lovely surf session in Lahaina, yesterday I managed to miss the windsurfing on the north shore because I waited too long for the conditions to be the way I like them. Not sorry a single bit, for a change here's a photo of a kiter showing the waves (which occasionally were up to mast high or 4m faces). Photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore


No signs of any energy from the south at the buoys, but that's only because the new NW energy is shadowing it. These are the kind of things you learn when you observe the buoys for as long as I have. What counts in this cases, is the knowledge of the original fetch (which I posted in a collage yesterday) and, if the sun is out, the webcams of course. My guess in the dark is that there's still waves.

Here we go, I decided to wait to have that confirmation and sure enough I immediately caught a chest high one. Might have been the set of the day, who knows. What I was afraid of, and seem to show watching the live feed, is a bit of wind texture caused by the fact that today the trades are going to be kinda strong and that usually brings some turbulence also on the other side. Might clean up though.


In the meantime, here's the graph of the Samoa buoy that shows the swell that is forecasted for the weekend picking up mid yesterday (red circle). As illustrated in the post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines , the travel times from it to here are according to the following table.

20sec--30kts-- 74hrs (3days)

17sec--26kts-- 85hrs (3.5 days)

14sec--21kts--106 hrs (4.5 days)

11sec--17kts--130 hrs (5.5 days)

The first recorded reading seems to be 2f 16s around 8am Monday (there might be smaller ones with longer period before it). Those will take a little more than 3.5 days to get here and that means Thursday evening. In the meantime, they will also lose some size and gain some period. As a result, the Surfline forecast calls for 0.8f 18s at 8pm on Thursday. Considering how inconsistent a south swell is at the very beginning, we can safely say that the first day of the swell is going to be Friday.


North shore
NW101
10.3ft @ 8s from 62° (ENE)

N
4.5ft @ 12s from 306° (WNW)

Waimea
5.3ft @ 11s from 329° (NW)

Pauwela
5.5ft @ 8s from 350° (N)
4.4ft @ 11s from 334° (NNW)
 
NW Swell still up at the buoys, plenty energy on offer also today. If you remember the fetches, you'll know that this is going to be a long lasting swell, with decreasing period and size hand in hand with the direction going progressively more easterly. If you don't remember the fetches you have two options:
1) scroll down to the past day's calls and check them
2) read the wordy explanation of Pat Caldwell:
A long-lived, broad area of low pressure moved slowly east from the dateline along 40°N 5/18-21 as peak winds slowly weakened. Strongest winds aimed NE of Hawaii. There was a short-lived spell of 13-15 second wave period energy late 5/21 locally as measured by the pacioos/cdip Waimea buoy. The energy is dominant in the 10-12 second band mid Monday 5/22. The primary fetch aimed at Hawaii was of strong to near gale winds over the 320-340 degree band, closest on 5/20 about 800 nm out. Fresh to strong breezes over the 330-360 degree band nosed even closer to within a few hundred miles while the tail of the fetch was beyond 1200 nm away. This should make for a long-lived episode as the dominant direction veers from NNW to N then to NNE.

Overhead also today is my size guess, but with the Hookipa sensor already reading 9(6-12) from the east at 5.20am, I might not even go have a look. I like clean waves.

2pm wind map shows easterly trades and another good day for wind related sports.


Current wind map apparently only shows a NNE windswell fetch.


But with my surprise, the Meteogram automated generated fetch map shows a fetch down south.
That map (right of the photo) is at 6Z which is 8pm Monday, and the Windy map (left of the photo) is current (5am this morning), so there's a bit of time difference between the two, but the reason the fetch I circled doesn't seem oriented towards us is that the closer you get to the poles, the more distortion gets introduced when you try to represent the Earth on a flat map. That's why the Great Circle Rays maps are an important tool.

Now the problem with that fetch is that is about one more extra day of travelling distance and considering it only has up to 30-34 knots wind in it, I believe that the related wave energy will have a hard time make it all the way up to Hawaii. We will see in 7-8 days.

Morning sky. Watch out for the trade's generated squalls on the eastern sides of the island.


Watch out also for some really shallow low tides coming up this week due to a spring new moon. Here's Kahului. Lahaina is roughly one hour later than that.

Monday, May 22, 2017

9.30am honolua has very occasional knee to waist high waves.

6.30am lahaina side knee to waist high and clean. Peaks was windy.

5.30am hookipa has shoulder to head high sets,  but the shape is ruined by the wind.
2.5

Monday 5 22 17 morning call

A surf and a wind foil session was my booty yesterday. Here's another kind of booty I luckily captured in 2008 at Oluwalu, that came up in those Facebook memories of the day things. My best duck dive shot ever, I love her dry hair and everything else.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore

SW
2.4ft @ 13s from 170° (S)

SE
2.5ft @ 13s from 176° (S)

Still nice southerly readings at the outer buoys, Thousand Peaks loves that size and period. Knee to waist high and peeling is my call.
Below are the wind maps of 15, 16 and 17 that show continuous fetches aimed at us, so there should be background swell for the next few days too. If the whole summer was like this, I would feel the need to go to Indo a little less. It's been fun down there, yesterday I gave my early morning SUP session a 9.


North shore
NW101
7.3ft @ 8s from 4° (N)
4.2ft @ 12s from 334° (NNW)
4.1ft @ 10s from 340° (NNW)

Waimea
3.2ft @ 13s from 326° (NW)

Pauwela
3ft @ 14s from 326° (NW)
2.5ft @ 8s from 80° (E)                      
1.2ft @ 10s from 334° (NNW)
 
NW swell is here, below are the graphs of the three reported buoys that show that the swell is still on the rise in size, but with numbers that are below the forecast. The swell is also rapidly declining in period and that will limit the size on the reef. Wind sensor at Hookipa shows 6(4-8)mph from 93, so not too bad. Stay tuned for the beach report.
 
Wind map at 2 shows some easterly trades with a much better direction than reported by other models.
 
Current wind map shows:
- a north windswell fetch
- a couple of fetches down south, but the good stuff happened in the past three days. Forecast calls for 3.3f 15s from 197 on Saturday with longer periods picking up already Friday.
 
Automatically drawn fetches.
 
Morning sky shows some clouds moving in from the south.