Thursday, October 09, 2014

10 9 14

4am main swell buoy readings:

Waimea: 4.3ft @ 17s from 317° (NW)
Maui north shore: 3.2ft @ 18s from 322° (NW)

As you can see, the big NW swell is filling in. It's going to build throughout all day and peak tomorrow.
My guess is today Hookipa will still be accessible for surfing and windsurfing in the afternoon, but tomorrow is going to be too big for everything. So enjoy it today while you can.

South shore supposed to be on the rise too, but Lanai, Barbers and SE buoys don't show any sign yet.
This is the October 2nd Tasman sea fetch on that generated a huge swell for Fiji a few days later.

Tasman sea swells are always tough to forecast, because you never know how much energy will make it through all those islands on the way.
But judging from the photos of Cloudbreak, I believe we are going to get something.
Buoy readings will be tricky too, because there will be two long period swells hitting them at the same time from different directions.
In other words, I'd check the lahaina cam before getting in the car...

But today it's going to be north shore for me, so check back in a few minutes for a photo and report from Hookipa.

Have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. Note on the NW swell directions. Now that the NW buoy is offline, it's impossible to know exactly what direction the swell is coming from. When it hits the Waimea buoy, I believe that the swell has already been "bent" by Kauai and the Oahu reefs. In other words, it could easily be more west than 317, but we'll never know.
As the already "bent" swell approaches Maui, it will bend even more because of Molokai and the NW tip of Maui and that's why we see 322 on the maui buoy. Unfortunately, every time a swell is refracted (that might be a more technical word, but I think bent is a lot clearer for the most), it loses some energy both in terms of size and consistency. Which, in case o a large swell like this, can be a good thing!

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