Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Wednesday 10 11 17 morning call

Another SUP foiling and windfoiling combo for me yesterday and my back is happily sore. The windsurfers got their backs sore at Hookipa in the afternoon too, photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.9ft @ 14s from 160° (SSE)

2.1ft @ 14s from 184° (S)

2.3ft @ 14s from 190° (S)

More lovely long period energy from the south at the outer buoys, means more lovely waves on the south shore today. I was really impressed by the size of some of the sets which sporadically reached close to head high. Here's Pat Caldwell explanation.

A string of lows along 60S from south of Australia to SE of New Zealand 10/2-6 should keep steady surf at levels mostly below average from within 180-220 degrees this week.
Surf building 10/10 was generated by a compact storm- force system SE of New Zealand 10/2 that aimed highest seas at the Americas. NOAA southern Hawaii buoy 51004 to the SE of Hilo is showing the highest swell energy in the 15-17 second bands 10/10, reflecting the primary swath of swell trains missing Oahu to the east.

In other words, for once we get more size that our Oahu neighbors. But the period went down a bit, so today should be more centered around waist to chest... hopefully. Stay tuned for a beach report later.

North shore
3.6ft @ 8s from 77° (ENE)                      
1.2ft @ 11s from 336° (NNW)
A sliver of NNW energy at the Pauwela buoy, but it will be barely visible in the water as it will be mostly about the windswell today.
Wind map at noon shows trades so easterly that they won't even channel between the two mountains as they usually do. It'll be interesting to see if it really happens. Nonetheless, the wind sport addicted should be able to get some action on the north shore.

North Pacific shows a decent NW fetch (3f 16s predicted by Pat Caldwell on Sunday) associated with a low that will unfortunately drift over the Aleutians and a NE windswell fetch (which I forgot to circle).

Here's the traditional weather map that shows a battle between two giants: the Aleutian low I just mentioned and a massive high in the eastern half of the North Pacific. As I said, the high will unfortunately win and kick the low to the NNE over the Aleutians.

Some readers will remember that exactly a week ago I posted this map that was modeled to happen a week later, today. As you can see, sometimes, models can be very wrong as unfortunately there is no sign of that beautiful low and the north swell it would have generated. That's why I don't like to look too far ahead. It's like the models are teaching us to stay focused on the present. And that's why in my call I only analyze the conditions for the day with a look at what's gonna happen in the next few days based on real data. Storms that are actually happening, not that are modeled to happen.

South Pacific offers a nice SSE fetch with a portion of winds aimed directly at us and a portion aimed east of us of which we should get the angular spreading. The fetch east of New Zealand is a bit narrow, but it might add some energy. Next week looking good for the south shore.

Morning sky.

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