Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Tuesday 12 22 20 morning call

Photo of the day is by Art and shows Annie Reichert flying high with her wing foil gear.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers

2.9ft @ 13s from 232° (WSW)
0.8ft @ 22s from 191° (SSW)

Lanai

2.9ft @ 13s from 213° (SW)
0.7ft @ 22s from 194° (SSW)

New long period southerly swell is at our gates, let's see how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch(es):
A much more favorable pattern for surf in Hawaii unfolded 12/15-16 SE of New Zealand to the south of French Polynesia deep down in the austral midlatitudes. This system had a broad area of severe gales with pockets to storm force. JASON altimeter measured seas to 44 feet. Highest aim was at the Americas, though portions of the fetch did have direct aim at Hawaii 12/16. The source moved east of the Hawaii swell window 12/17 as it weakened. 

The swath of energy was mostly east of the PACIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy when it was due 12/19-21, which also had ample energy overlapping from tropical system Zazu to its south 12/16-19. Onset from the austral midlatitude source is due locally 12/22 with the event filled in 12/23 PM above the summer average by the afternoon from 180-195 degrees. It should peak early 12/24 then slowly drop to near average 12/25 and below average 12/26 from 170-190 degrees. Tropical system Zazu is near 30S, 160W 12/18 and has about another day with a compact area of marginal gales. This energy will overlap locally with the austral midlatitude source 12/24-26, not so much adding any size, though it could increase the consistency of sets from 170-190 degrees.

Below are the maps of Dec 15 through 18 that will help follow the above description.



While the 22s energy painfully slowly picks up throughout the day, almost 3ft 13s should provide enough energy for the south shore to possibly be the place to be today. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
NW101
4.1ft @ 12s from 288° (WNW)

Waimea
3.4ft @ 13s from 309° (WNW)

Mokapu
3.1ft @ 9s from 77° (ENE)

NW energy will be a minimal level on Maui's north shore today. Home guess without Pauwela and with such westerly directions at the buoys is quite hard, I'm gonna say max head high, but it could easily be smaller than that. Borderline XL swell on the way for tomorrow as you can guess by looking at the fetch map. More on that tomorrow.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


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