Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Tuesday 12 12 17 morning call

Double SUP foiling session for me yesterday, in a day that offered many good options. A very good one was Hookipa at sunset, which I ranked as a 9. Below are some photos.

I guess you can call this a drone shot.

Here's a start of something beautiful at Lanes.

Same wave, well down the line. The guy disappeared completely and came out. Since Lanes is not Pipe (where yesterday the Masters started), that's pretty much an automatic 10.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

No indication of southerly energy at the buoys, the Surfline forecast calls for 1f 12s.

North shore
5.8ft @ 10s from 329° (NW)

3.9ft @ 12s from 332° (NNW)

5.3ft @ 11s from 332° (NNW)
No long period readings of the new upcoming big swell yet at any of the buoys, the first half of the day will only see the declining existing swell, which reads a lovely 5.3f 11s at Pauwela at 4am. Below is the graph of this last buoy, together with the Surfline forecast that shows the peak of the new swell tomorrow at 2pm at 18f 15s, but also a first indication of the energy of it today at 2pm with 5f 14s, so it should definitely be in the water in the afternoon. Notice also the inversion of the winds mid day today and the pretty ugly northerlies tomorrow and Thursday.

Here's how Pat Caldwell describes the characteristics of this new episode:
The next round of winter-caliber surf has the characteristic of recent large swell events with both remote and nearby sources combined. However, for the recent ones, the nearby source dominated. In the new case beginning late Tuesday, the remote source is expected to produce just as much or more than the nearby source. This should be the largest event so far this year.
Then he goes into a detailed description of what the remote and nearby fetches did, I wish one day will give him a more graphic tool to make his life easier. Check it out at link n.9 if you like meteo poetry.

Wind map at noon shows again a line around which the wind will turn because of the pass of a sub-front. According to this model, the wind will blow Kona until mid day and by 4pm it should turn northerly. Even though the two models at the bottom of the Windguru page only show the northerlies hitting after sunset, if you can choose, my suggestion is to surf in the morning rather than in the afternoon.

North Pacific shows again the very strong fetch that is still building tomorrow's swell and a new westerly fetch just east of Japan.

Nothing of relevance on offer in the South Pacific.

The morning sky gives me the opportunity to illustrate the sub-fronts. Within a front (of which in this case we're only being brushed by the tail), there can be several sub-front lines. I drew a red line on three of them. Around each single one, you'll have preceding southerly winds and following northerly winds.

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