4am significant buoy readings and discussion
0.5ft @ 18s from 206° (SSW)
0.7ft @ 18s from 202° (SSW)
The reason the two local south facing buoys can register such a small long period SSW energy is because there's no NW energy in the water to mask it (and they're very sheltered for the NE one). I looked for the source on the fetches maps, and I found a possible one. Below is the collage of the maps of Feb 26 and 27, which means it only took 5 days for that energy to get here (a bit too early). In the end, I'm not sure where it comes from, but sometimes it's not that important. What's important is that there's something in the water... or is there?
As always, the answer is easy to find just by checking the Lahaina webcam, which doesn't really show much. And what it shows, seems more like a miraculous wrap from the NE energy. See the wave behind the one that just broke? Well, you should, as I put an arrow on it... anyways, that's not 18s. That's more like 12s. The direction of the waves at Breakwall (the other of the two angles of the camera) confirms this hypothesis. That means that there will waves of increasing size all the way up to Honolua. The way to confirm that is to check all the webcams of the west side. Unfortunately, many are down, but the Napili Bay n.2 shows waves clearly coming from the wrap and I even saw one breaking at Little Makaha. I'm pretty sure Honolua will have waves, even though that would be a more than 90 degrees tight turn. If not, Flemings will (less tight turn).
There you go. I had a bit of time to spare, so here's how a direction of 59 degrees looks like up there (yellow straight line). Some sets could possibly hook on the bottom and make a very tight turn of roughly 120 degrees to hit the Bay (red lines). The relatively long period (12s) should help. The wrap to hit Fleming's is less tight (yellow lines). That's why sometimes during summer, Fleming's has waves wrapping from the easterly windswell and Honolua is completely flat (shorter periods don't wrap as well).
12.6ft @ 12s from 59° (ENE)
Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).
Only windswell waves made for Hawaii today in the North Pacific. March starting with the wrong foot.
South Pacific has decent fetch deep down in the Tasman Sea.