Monday, June 21, 2021

Monday 6 21 21 morning call

Maalaea yesterday morning. Didn't have time to wait for a proper set (up to head and a half).


3am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
5.1ft @ 15s from 179° (S)

Lanai

3ft @ 15s from 185° (S)

South swell still well up at the buoys (don't know how to explain 2ft difference between the two), even though down to 15s. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
4.2ft @ 11s from 348° (NNW)

Hanalei
3.2ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)

Waimea
2.9ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)

Pauwela

2.7ft @ 8s from 77° (ENE)
2ft @ 5s from 57° (ENE)
1.9ft @ 14s from 329° (NW)

First of two out of season NW swells will be on the rise all day. Let's see how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
The first one formed late 6/16 near 45N on the Date Line. It gained lower-end gale status as it moved east of the Date Line Thursday morning, as validated by ASCAT. Seas were estimated near 20 feet in an area 1600 nm away over the 320-330 degree band. A captured fetch set up as the winds decreased to near gales nosing to near 40N, 170W (1300 nm away) Friday morning. Midmorning ASCAT validated 30 knot breezes aimed at Hawaii. Models show a sharp weakening late Friday.

Below are the maps of June 17 through 21 that will help follow. The red arrow indicates the first fetch and the blue the second (same for the related swells on the Pacioos forecast down below).


Below are the graphs of NW101 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. Home guess for Hookipa in the morning is for chest to shoulder high to start the day with with possible head high to slightly overhead sets in the afternoon.


Forecast and energy spectrum of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.


Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


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