Thursday, November 08, 2018

Thursday 11 8 18 morning call

A shortboard and a windfoiling session for me yesterday. Heading home after the quick Hookipa check from Holomua Road (unless it's summer or dark, I always turn around there instead of going straight home in the evening), I saw my buddy Russ solo sailing and I thought I didn't have any shots of the day. So I pulled over and here he is. Better a dark semi-blurred Maui shot of the day than a shiny shot from somewhere else. That's the spirit of this blog: what's going on with the waves in Maui. I encourage all readers to send me their shots of the day if they feel like contributing. Honolua shots are the most appreciated. Email is on the right, thanks.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore
1.6ft @ 15s from 200° (SSW)

1.3ft @ 15s from 200° (SSW)

Lovely 15s small readings at the local buoys, here's how Pat Caldwell describes the source. He put 1f 15s in his table for today and 1f 13s plus 1f 20s for tomorrow.

A compact gale low pressure system NE of New Zealand 11/1 tracked east as a front backed by near gales nosed into the tropics. The PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy picked up this short- to moderate-period swell 11/4-5 with heights within 4-6 feet. Due to the shorter wave periods, the swell size with travel is expected to fall off steadily. Surf locally could pick up to summer background levels by late Thursday, peak Friday, then drop Saturday from 190-210 degrees.

A much larger fetch to storm-force in the Southern Ocean 11/1-2 was closest to the Hawaii great circle route while it tracked SW to S of Tasmania. Once SE of Tasmania, the system weakened sharply. The American Samoa buoy picked up the long period forerunners 11/6-7. A slow start to this low event is due locally Friday 11/9 from 208-220 degrees. It should peak on Saturday at most to the summer average, then slowly drop into Monday.

You can spot both sources in the collage of the maps of Nov 1, 2 and 3 below. The first one is circled, the second isn't as it wasn't a direct aim (I put a question mark on the 3rd). Bottom line is that today the waves should be a little bigger than they have been and that shouldn't take much.

North shore
5.3ft @ 9s from 6° (N)
4.6ft @ 11s from 341° (NNW)

5.1ft @ 9s from 7° (N)
4.1ft @ 12s from 333° (NNW)

3.8ft @ 13s from 325° (NW)
3.4ft @ 9s from 352° (N)

3.9ft @ 9s from 57° (ENE)
2.7ft @ 12s from 323° (NW)
1.9ft @ 11s from 326° (NW)

Notice how the 9s energy from the N is gradually decreasing when we move down from the NW buoy through the island chain. That's because of the position of the low generating it (check the fetches map below). As for right now, that energy is missing Maui (we're too much to the east of its path), but it will reach us when the winds will be better aimed at us in the next couple of days.
As for today we'll only have the windswell and the leftover NW energy that peaked yesterday. That too decreases as you move down the island chain, but that's because of the decay due to traveling. The waves won't be particularly big, but they should be very clean as the wind will be pretty much perfect. I'll report from Hookipa as soon as I get there.

Wind map at 7am shows excellent conditions for surfing anywhere on the island.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific has a small fetch in the very NW corner, but the one that counts (or will count) is the one forming to our north. Here's Pat Caldwell again:
A strong high pressure near the Date Line at 40N 11/7 and a developing gale north of Hawaii near 35N are both expected to move slowly 11/7-8. The low is expected to lift out to the NNE 11/8-10.
ASCAT satellite mid morning 11/7 shows a small area of gales aimed at Oahu near the developing low pressure center. A much wider area of strong to near gale winds to the N through SW of the low center are aimed west of Oahu, though close enough for angular spreading.
Surf from this nearby source within 1000 nm 11/7 is expected to build locally Friday morning 11/9 from 340-360 degrees to levels just under the November average by late in the day.
The large area of strong to near gale winds is modelled to take on a much wider, longer fetch aimed at Hawaii and nosing within 500 nm 11/9-10. This should bring surf above the November average for Saturday.

South Pacific has a far SSW fetch.

Morning sky.

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