Saturday, June 27, 2020

Saturday 6 27 20 morning call

The out of season NW swell provided the windsurfers at Hookipa  with some delightful overhead waves yesterday.

Pavils saw some action too. Classic mayhem over there.

3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
1.4ft @ 14s from 193° (SSW)            

1.3ft @ 13s from 191° (SSW)           
1.2ft @ 18s from 195° (SSW)

A couple of above average swells are predicted  for the next 4-5 days. Here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetches:

An active austral, midlatitude cyclonic pattern set up S to SE of New Zealand 6/19 with the overall pattern shifting east through 6/26. A series of low pressure systems should deliver a long-lived spell of overlapping SSW to S events in Hawaii starting Saturday 6/27.
The first in the series was in the common location S to SE of New Zealand 6/19-20. It had a wide, long fetch of severe gales with seas 25-30 feet within 55-65S aimed at the Americas. This hot spot for Hawaii surf has been active off and on over the last 4 weeks.

NOAA southern buoys 6/26 midday are showing an increase in the 16-18 second band. The onset stage is expected locally late Friday into mid Saturday with inconsistent sets trending up toward the average by Saturday dawn. The event should be filled in Saturday PM with a more consistent pace of sets. The onset stage of a new, even longer-wave period event is due Saturday PM.

The second fetch pattern in the series S to SE of New Zealand was just behind the aforementioned system 6/20-22. The low centered dropped to 949 mb 6/21. Winds behind a front had more NE aim, closer to Hawaii, than the first system. Severe gales to storm-force winds grew a wide area of seas within 30-40 feet, that were validated by the JASON altimeter 6/21. As the fetch approached the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window south of French Polynesia 6/22, even more direct aim was point at Hawaii, though winds had subsided to middle gales. The pattern weakened sharply 6/23.

Below are the maps of June 20, 21, 22 and 23 that will help follow. The fetch is circled in blue because, as uncle Pat pointed out,  it wasn't aimed directly at Hawaii. Close enough though, to get ample angular spreading energy.

As usual, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Yesterday at sunset Lanai was reading 1ft 20s and the harbor had occasional head high sets.

Here's an empty 5.15am beauty. I'm calling 10-15 people by 6am.

North shore
2.9ft @ 11s from 313° (NW)            

3.5ft @ 11s from 328° (NW)

2.8ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)            

2.9ft @ 13s from 319° (NW)          
2.9ft @ 8s from 97° (E)          
2.1ft @ 6s from 66° (ENE)

Out of season NW swell peaked yesterday afternoon, but there should still be waves at Hookipa (possibly up to head high or even plus) this morning with a decline trend for the rest of the day. Below is Pauwela's graph.

Wind map at noon
(the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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