The FUJIWARA effect

Here. Let's learn something (and smile for the good news...) from uncle Pat Caldwell's forecast...

Into the long range, the jet stream chart today shows a sharply meridional, or south to north, long wave pattern with a ridge (poleward loop) over the Tasman sea and a trough (equatorward loop) filling a 3000 nm wide area east of new zealand. This type of pattern is associated with the largest southerly surf received in Hawaii. A storm from the subtropics was pulled into the trough today, with low pressure deepening rapidly with 50 knot winds centered at about 35°S or 3000 nm due south of Hawaii. With the abundant tropical moisture, this storm is shown to feed the very broad occluded low pressure system that tracked east below new zealand and is now due south of Hawaii about 4500 nm. The subtropical source low is show to do a fujiwara effect, or pulled into the mother low as it wraps around toward the south. The effect should result in a unusually deep low pressure of 936 mb by Thursday morning. Hurricane-force winds should result over a relatively compact area in the 175-180 degree band, but a broad, 1500 nm wide and 1000 nm long fetch of 30-40 knot winds should set up between this low and new zealand in the 175-200 degree band. Meanwhile, another shortwave travelling along the jet track is modelled to enhance a storm just east of new zealand late Wednesday into Friday, setting up another fetch of 40-50 knot winds in the 190-200 degree band. The net result should be an extended period of high to extra-large surf locally, with peaks next Tuesday and again next Thursday and Friday. Models suggest a relaxation to normal or below normal surf locally for the week starting 8/7.

I better book some massages in advance...