Early morning Maalaea looked like this (photo by Jason Hall). Unfortunately, by the time I hit it at around 7am, it was much smaller, but I managed to catch a couple and most importantly to get wet.
After work I went to Lahaina and, even though I'm not a fan of the afternoon sessions over there (the onshore wind was on it), there was definitely more size than the day before (sets were like chest high).
South with a hint of east hits Maalaea better. South with a bit of west hits Lahaina better. Look at the map, look at Kahoolawe and it all makes sense.
Actually, here we go, I'll do that for you.
As you can see, the tight opening that Maalaea has to the east of Kahoolawe is only between 165 and 185. And you can't even consider all of those 20 degrees "unaffected" by the uninhabitated island. Directions close to the edges will still be refracted and diminished by it. The swell of two days ago was from 175, that's why it was getting there so nicely.
Lahaina has a much better "view", as its angle goes from 185 to 232. Yesterday's swell was from around 225 (real Tasman stuff!) and that's why yesterday Lahaina was much bigger than the day before.
I added the above map to the NW buoy to Maui travel time and shadowing angles which you can access through the labels section of this blow for future references.
Significant 5am buoy readings.
4.9ft @ 9s from 66° (ENE)
1.9ft @ 15s from 223° (SW)
Lahaina is without a doubt the place to surf today.
Wind prediction for the day is below.
Wind map shows a large, but not particularly intense windswell fetch and a couple of small insignificant ones N and NW. The orientation of the windswell fetch has been favorable, but the waves haven't gone over 5f and I suspect that the relative intensity of the wind inside the fetch must be the culprit. It should pick up a foot or two more over the weekend as the trades intensify a notch.
South Pacific shows a strong Tasman sea fetch and a weaker SSE one to keep the flatness away.