Thursday, October 07, 2021

Thursday 10 7 21 morning call

Hookipa yesterday afternoon. Photo by Jimmie Hepp, the album wasn't uploaded yet, check on his page.


6am Surfline significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
0.4ft @ 22s from 198° (SSW)

That sliver of 22s energy at Barbers is the first very small (most likely still undetectable) sign of a large south swell that will start hitting tomorrow. Below are the maps of Sept 30 through Oct 5 that show the evolution of the large fetch.



Below is the graph of the Samoa buoy on the 6th. I put a red arrow to indicate that the swell started to peak in the afternoon of the 5th and it stayed at around 6ft locally for a whole day.

The post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines

shows that at 16s it takes about 3.7 days for a swell to get here, so we can expect this swell to start peaking around Saturday morning. Meanwhile, Pat Caldwell informed us that the factor is about 2/3 for decay from AS to Barber’s Point buoy (~9 AS lead to ~6 BP). If that is correct, we should see about 4ft 16s locally. Surfine is line with that, indicating a peak of 3.5ft 17s.

For today, as usual, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.




North shore
NW101
2.4ft @ 13s from 296° (WNW)

Hanalei
2.6ft @ 14s from 301° (WNW)

Waimea
1.7ft @ 14s from 301° (WNW)

Kaneohe Bay
4.1ft @ 8s from 54° (ENE)

WNW swell declining quickly at the upstream buoys and should disappear from our waters during the day. After that, it's going to be mostly windswell for quite a few days. Home guess for Hookipa is waist to chest high.

Forecast of Pauwela from this PACIOOS page.



Wind map at noon. The other ones can be found here (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map
(circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: possibly over the ice sheet) from Windy.
North Pacific
(about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific
(about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


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