Thursday, July 11, 2019

Thursday 7 11 19 morning call

Another fun day of surfing on the west side for me yesterday. Sorry, I can't help it, I'm just in love with the surfing conditions over there, no matter the size. I shot another Kai Penny video and slapped it together in record time last night.

3am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
1.9ft @ 10s from 173° (S)
1.6ft @ 11s from 180° (S)
2.6ft @ 11s from 173° (S)                        
1.2ft @ 15s from 198° (SSW)
Last weekend's south swell now down to 11s, but there's new small long period energy in the water (I even saw intermittent 20s here and there). Not next weekend's forerunners just yet, let's see how Pat Caldwell describes what happened.
Another series of extra-tropical cyclones SE of New Zealand 7/4-9 is expected to bring surf back up above average locally leading into the weekend.
The first two sources have lower odds and unfolded at the same time 7/4-5. One was a compact gale east of New Zealand. This source alone was too small in size to expect surf beyond average locally.
The second source was much broader. It was south of French Polynesia 7/4-5 with an large area of seas over 30 feet aimed at the Americas within 55-60S. The aim was close enough to expect surf locally. The near miss makes for greater error bars on the local surf estimates.
The onset stage is due Thursday PM and it should be filled in late Friday near sundown from 180-190 degrees. It should peak in the wee hours Saturday morning above average then slowly trend down as a new larger event fills in.

Below is the collage of the maps of July 4 and 5. I numbered the two sources he mentions for your convenience. At the time, not having the isobars on the great circle maps anymore, I wasn't sure if the fetch n.2 was oriented towards us enough and I circled it in yellow (with a question mark) on the 4th. It looked better on the 5th, so I circled it in blue (color I use for a fetch with no direct aim, but with angular spreading potential).

Let's now have a look at the Samoa buoy graph below. On the left of it (Tuesday) I circled in black and highlighted in yellow the first swell described by uncle Pat. It reached a solid 5ft 15s, so we should definitely expect some energy out of it later today and tomorrow.
On the right of it, I circled in red and highlighted in yellow the impressive graph of the next bigger swell (I'll post the fetches later this week). It seems to have peaked at around 8ft 18s at 7pm yesterday. From the post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines, we learn that it takes a little more than 3 days at that period to get here, so that swell should peak Saturday night, despite both Pat Caldwell and the WW3 model calling for a late Sunday peak. We'll see.

I don't check the Samoa buoy very often (although I should), but 8ft 18s is a big number. I think this might end up being the biggest swell of this amazing summer so far. The more interesting question (other than when it peaks) is: how big is it going to be by the time it gets to our local buoys? I confess I don't really know, but I remind you guys that one of the biggest south swells I've ever seen was 4ft 20s at Lanai, and this one has potential to be just like that. In which case, we'll have quadruple overhead at La Perouse, triple at Dumps, double at Maalaea and all closed out from Ukumehame to Lahaina.

Of course, to check the size of today's waves, just check the Lahaina webcam. Should be a small start but increasing in the afternoon.

North Shore

3ft @ 13s from 316° (NW

Small kine waves at hookipa

Wind map at noon is older than usual (model didn't update), but still better than nothing.

Nothing in the North Pacific.

Nothing in the South Pacific.

Morning sky.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanx for inviting us to join Kai Pennys adventures.
This is great,