Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Wednesday 1 22 20 morning call

Another day of intense action (that's the reason for the late call... my body needed extra rest). Surfing at Hookipa was pretty damn good, this is Connor Baxter.


But I had even more fun SUP foiling at kite beach. This is Dave Kalama in a photo by Tomoko.


6am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
1ft @ 16s from 211° (SW)

I went and checked the fetch maps from last week to see if there was something that would justify that 1ft 16s at Barbers, but I didn't find anything. As a matter of fact, the Lahaina webcam shows very little. Check it out yourself.

North shore
NW001
6.7ft @ 19s from 287° (WNW)

Waimea
2.3ft @ 10s from 343° (NNW)
2.2ft @ 11s from 339° (NNW)
1.7ft @ 22s from 307° (WNW)

Pauwela
3.9ft @ 9s from 59° (ENE)
3.1ft @ 11s from 347° (NNW)
0.8ft @ 5s from 79° (ENE)
0.7ft @ 22s from 324° (NW)
 
New XL NW swell on the rise today, let's see how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the fetch:
The pendulum has swung in the weather pattern for the north Pacific. The first weeks of January were dominated by ridges of high pressure resulting in above average trades and trade windswell and below average long-period WNW to N swell. The jet stream began readjusting late last week into this week with an overall southward shift of more zonal to troughing-type patterns. This should lead to a series of winter-caliber surf episodes in Hawaii over the next week.

A severe-gale to storm-force system tracked east from NE of Japan 1/17 to a position NNW of Hawaii mid 1/21, holding steady near 40N. It is unusual since most systems of such strength are associated with an occluded low pressure system, that tends to slow or stall in track.
The pattern of 1/17-21 should result in a wide swell directional spread due high seas generated from great circle rays from 290-340 degrees. The dominant direction should be within 305-320 degrees through its life cycle locally. This direction had the longest captured fetch.
The system was closest to Hawaii 1/20-21 with severe gales about 1000 nm away. JASON altimeter measured seas to 32' in this area, with those highest seas aimed slightly NE of Hawaii. Models show the system moving east of the Hawaii swell window as it weakens 1/22.

Wave Watch III gives the onset of the long-period phase overnight Tuesday night. The wave model has consistently been early for long-period events on the order of 6 hours. This adjustment places the rise in surf Wednesday morning from 290-330 degrees, with heights climbing above average mid day. After sundown, heights should ramp up into extra large levels, meaning high enough for breakers on outer reefs. The peak of the swell is expected pre- dawn, coinciding with the spring high tide. This should give above average wave overwash centered on the high tide.
Heights are expected to remain extra-large through Thursday with a slow downward trend from 290-340 degrees. Heights should continue above average on Friday from the same wide swath. A new event is due overnight Friday.
 
Below is the collage of the maps of Jan 18, 19 20 and 21. I put an arrow to indicate the fetch.

Below are the graphs of the NW and Pauwela buoys, together with the Surfline forecast. It's interesting that Caldwell says that the WW3 model has been early of about 6 hours, because instead I noticed that the Surfline forecast (mostly based, like any other forecast, on the WW3 model) has been late instead. Based on the NW graph, in fact, I drew a red dotted line on Pauwela to show how I think the swell will pick up in Maui. That's a good 12 hour earlier than the Surfline forecast.
As a consequence, the morning should see small size waves (3ft 11s leftover from the NNW swell of the last couple of days) and the new very long period sets should start being noticeable only in the afternoon, with some significant size only at sunset.


The WQS contest at Sunset Beach is on this morning (legendary Derek Ho in the first heat!). Unfortunately, to watch it live, it now requires to download some software and I haven't been able to make it work so far. Good, I'll go surfing instead.

Wind map at noon
       



Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
1:57a  +2.6  12:25p  +1.2   8:42a  +0.8   6:55p  -0.4    7:07a   6:12p

Next XL NW swell is being created by the strong NW fetch below. 14ft 16s predicted by Surfline on Satruday.


South Pacific has a weak S fetch. Too weak to do anything for us.


Morning sky.


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