Friday, May 15, 2020

Friday 5 15 20 morning call

Hookipa was a 9 in the early morning (sorry, no beach report, but I didn't drive there, I paddled there and I'm not a fan of carrying a cell phone in the water). Perfectly peeling 12-13s glassy head high plus waves. This is Annie Reickert, photo by Erik Aeder.

This is a list of Beach Parks that will re-open tomorrow (with a few more starting with W that didn't make the page). Kanaha is not there.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
2ft @ 17s from 189° (S)

1.8ft @ 17s from 188° (S)

Good numbers at the buoys and good waves in the water. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
2.1ft @ 17s from 332° (NNW)

1ft @ 18s from 322° (NW)

0.9ft @ 16s from 260° (W)

2.7ft @ 11s from 323° (NW)
2.4ft @ 7s from 83° (E)

New long period NW swell on the rise all day, here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetch (posted on Wednesday):
A new low pressure cell formed east of the Kuril Islands 5/11 and tracked east along 45N. A captured fetch was set up over the 320-330 degree band with the head of the fetch reaching the Date Line 5/12. Seas grew near 25 feet as validated 5/12 overnight by the JASON altimeter. The center of the low took a turn to the ESE 5/13, lengthening the captured fetch. Models show a slow weakening of winds as the head of the fetch reaches the closest position to Hawaii within 700 nm on Thursday. The system is modelled to shift NE and weaken east of the Hawaii swell window late 5/14 into 5/15.

The long captured fetch and proximity of the closest gales ensures winter-caliber surf for Hawaii. The event should rapidly climb on Friday with heights above the May average by mid-morning from 320-330 degrees. Heights should reach well above average Friday PM, peak in the wee hours Saturday, then remain elevated with a slow downward trend into Sunday from 320-340 degrees. It should fall to near the May average by Monday 5/18 and fade out by Tuesday.

Below are the maps of May 11 through 14 which will help follow.

17s swells take 15h from the NW buoy to us, so the equivalent of those 2ft will be here at 7pm. Also, 18s take 7 hours from Hanalei to here, so the equivalent of that 1ft will be here at 11am (all these travel times are in the post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines). So we can expect nothing at all in the early morning and slow gradual rise all afternoon with possibly sizey sets at sunset, but the real big stuff will only happen tomorrow. Meanhwile, 2.7ft 11s at Pauwela will make for smaller than yesterday, but still not flat and very clean Hookipa again.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

North Pacific fetches map (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner):

South Pacific fetches map (about 7 days travel time from east of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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