Saturday, October 03, 2020

Saturday 10 3 20 morning call

Another great day of surfing yesterday. 

3am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy registered by the buoys. But there's NW energy in the water, so that might override any possible low southerly energy. Pat Caldwell mentions that there could be something:

Gales entered the southern Tasman Sea 9/26 with the fetch pushing
north to the subtropics into 9/27.  The onset stage is due locally
late Saturday 10/3 with the event filled in late Sunday 10/4 from
208-220 degrees. It should peak 10/5 as a larger event builds.

The larger event he mentioned was generated by the same fetch once if moved east of New Zealand, we'll analyze that in a couple of days. Below are the maps of Sept 25, 26 and 27, which show the Tasman Sea fetch. For sure Fiji got some big waves, but check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency, to see if and how that energy made it here.

There's definitely somewthing. I wonder if that's also some N wrap...

North shore
6.9ft @ 13s from 346° (NNW)

7.4ft @ 13s from 355° (N)


4.8ft @ 12s from 336° (NNW)
3.5ft @ 10s from 335° (NNW)


6.8ft @ 13s from 354° (N)
5.6ft @ 11s from 332° (NNW)

These series of NW to N pulses has followed a complex patterns of lows (read Pat Caldwell if interested), some aiming more to our east, some more to our west. I believe that's the reason why yesterday afternoon the swell did not pick up locally as I suggested. Today both the NW buoys and the N one show elevated numbers, so we can be guaranteed that that energy will hit us. As a matter of fact, Pauwela is showing almost 7ft 13s (plus more energy at 11s), and it should stay fairly steady all day, before starting to decline during the night. Below are the graphs of NW001 and Pauwela, together with the Surfline forecast. Hookipa will have waves in the double overhead range with clean wind conditions in the early morning.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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