Sunday, May 26, 2019

Sunday 5 26 19 morning call

The NW swell at Hookipa rose as predicted in the afternoon, here's an example of the max size I could gather from Jimmie Hepp's album.


4am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
2.6ft @ 13s from 292° (WNW)
2.1ft @ 16s from 192° (SSW)

Lanai
2ft @ 17s from 194° (SSW)
1.7ft @ 13s from 198° (SSW)

New long period SSW swell on the rise at 17s, while the old one hangs in there at 13. Nonetheless, the waves are not exactly pumping in the webcam. Remember Pat Caldwell: As with the Mothers Day event, and as is most often the case from the New Zealand source region, highest aim of seas and swell were off to the SE of Hawaii. This places higher error bars on the local surf estimate.

This is a small set at the harbor, judging from they're sitting, there must be bigger sets. Check the webcam yourself before going. BTW, a kind reader sent me an email to inform you that Dumps is open again.


North shore
NW101
6ft @ 11s from 325° (NW)

Hanalei
4.1ft @ 11s from 318° (NW)

Waimea
3.9ft @ 13s from 305° (WNW)

Pauwela
5.4ft @ 9s from 81° (E)
3.1ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)
 
The waves at Hookipa look like head high on the webcam, but I'm sure there's bigger sets here and there. Conditions look allright with light sideoff winds up and down with the squalls. Should stay pretty steady all day, eventually building to yesterday's levels in the afternoon, if the wind will make the local windswell pick up a notch.

Wind map at noon.


The low started producing waves for us like 5 days ago is still hanging in there, greatly slowed down by the occlusion of its fronts. As a result, we get a small NW fetch also today.


South Pacific has a wide, but not particularly intense S fetch.


Morning sky. That's the tail of a front from the low that made the NW wave passing over us.

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Saturday 5 25 19 morning call

The clip below has been on the social media for a couple of days already, but someone might not have seen it yet. It's an incredible barrel at Teahupoo by Matahi Drollet. I like his hashtag comment: felt like I was making love in the dark. To me it looks more like fighting a fire hydrant in the dark.

by Lieberfilms


4am significant buoy readings
South shore
Lanai
2.4ft @ 14s from 194° (SSW)

South swell coming down a bit, while the new long period pulse is not really there yet. Let's see how Pat Caldwell describes the complex fetch evolution:

This final source over the 180-200 degree band had a long, wide fetch 5/17-20 with severe gales growing seas to near 30 feet. Those were weaker winds relative to the Mothers Day swell source near the same area, so this event is expected to be a notch lower locally. As with the Mothers Day event, and as is most often the case from the New Zealand source region, highest aim of seas and swell were off to the SE of Hawaii. This places higher error bars on the local surf estimate.
The PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy registered the rise of this event with 6 feet deep water swell at 15-17s building 5/22 and slowly dropping 5/23-24. These wave periods reflects the severe gale source. The Mothers Day source had winds to storm- force and the dominant period was longer.
Wave Watch III places the onset stage for the new event locally Saturday 5/25 centered from 190 degrees. Inconsistent sets above average are possible 5/25 PM.
The event should be filled in by Sunday 5/26 with a peak late in the day well above average. Slow change is expected with similar surf Monday morning followed by a downward trend into Tuesday from 180-200 degrees. Small surf from this direction should hold into Wednesday.

Below is the collage of the maps of May 18, 19 and 20.


While it seems to be more like a Sunday arrival for this new pulse, there's still wonderful waves in the water from the previous fetches.
Here's a nice set at the harbor, check the webcam yourself before going.


North shore
NW101
6ft @ 12s from 311° (NW)

Hanalei
4.3ft @ 12s from 315° (NW)

Waimea
3.3ft @ 12s from 306° (WNW)

Pauwela
5.2ft @ 9s from 88° (E)
3.9ft @ 6s from 81° (E)
3ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)
 
The start of the NW swell was quite unimpressive yesterday and this morning it looks just a little more filled in on the Mama's cam, but not fully convincing yet. The wind is light and sideoff though, so when the set comes it looks pretty nice. Plenty squalls around the area, conditions might change quickly and often. Probably head high in the morning, a bit bigger in the afternoon with the active windswell adding on top and the upward trend of the other buoys (6ft 12s at the NW).

Wind map at noon.


The low that generated the current NW swell is still there making waves, this swell is going to be long lasting. Windswell fetch pretty solid too.


South Pacific taking a break.


Morning sky.

Friday, May 24, 2019

Friday 5 24 19 morning call

Yesterday I went for an x-ray and fortunately the ribs are allright. Just muscle damage (yet very painful in certain positions), I got very lucky on that one. Here's a video in which I analyze what happened in that wipeout, in case someone wants to know/learn.


I just found out that you can now embed Instagram videos, so here's an example of a spot where there's a lot of double ups of the first kind. Not two waves overlapping, but a wave that hits the reef with the size, direction, period, amount of water on the reef left by the previous waves, tide, wind, Alpha Centaury aligned with Saturn's 62 moons and so on...
Terrifying is my comment.


5am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
2.6ft @ 15s from 195° (SSW)

Lanai
2.5ft @ 14s from 197° (SSW)

Lovely numbers continue at the buoys (what a couple of weeks these have been!) while a new long period pulse is predicted for the weekend. The webcam doesn't look particularly consistent and it seems a bit smaller than yesterday, but there's still occasional head high sets like this one below.


North shore
NW101
4.7ft @ 13s from 312° (NW)

Hanalei
0.8ft @ 14s from 312° (NW)

Pauwela
4.3ft @ 8s from 88° (E)
3.8ft @ 6s from 87° (E)
 
New moderate NW swell showing solid at the NW buoy.
Below is the collage of the graphs of NW and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast. By applying GP's rule of thumb for the travel time (16h @ 16s +/- 1h per 1s), 14s swells take around 18h to get to Maui and I drew a red dotted line on Pauwela's graph accordingly. That means that, while Surfline only predicts the swell to arrive tomorrow, we should have some sets in the afternoon already today.
 
Below is the collage of the fetches maps of May 21, 22, 23 and 24. If it was already there Tuesday early morning, it's no surprise that it will start showing up this afternoon.
 
Wind map at noon shows easterly trades getting amplified into the 25 to 30 knots range. Windguru's 10 days table says 15, but that's the wind speed offshore. That, in fact, is the output of the GFS model which has a resolution of 27km, which does not do very well to calculate the increase in the speed due to the local mountains. The NAM 3km model at the bottom of the page does a better job. But the best model around at the moment is, in my opinion, the WRF-ARW 2km one of which I report the noon map every day. The one used by the page Maui County @2km was the best I've ever found, but that one's been dead for over two years now. 
 
North Pacific's low that generated this weekend's NW swell has moved away a bit, but still has a fetch oriented towards us. 
 
South Pacific has a fetch oriented towards the America's out of which we might get a bit angular spreading.
 
Morning sky.

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Thursday 5 23 19 morning call

No photos from yesterday (hard to take them when you can't even leave your house), but here's a head high set at empty Breakwall from the Lahaina webcam, this morning around 6.30am. It's obviously not always like that, you need to check the webcam yourself to see the consistency, the average size, the local wind and the local crowd.



5am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
2.5ft @ 15s from 191° (SSW)

Lanai
2.7ft @ 15s from 200° (SSW)

It's been an extremely good start of the south swell season, imo. Already two big swells and above average size waves for many days of the last two weeks. Here's how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the sources. Below you find the collage of the fetches maps of May 15, 16 and 17, which should help greatly follow his wordy and worthy description.
The SW Pacific S to E of New Zealand entered an active cyclonic mode 5/14 and held into 5/20. This placed sources over the 185-200 degree band relative to Hawaii. There were a series of fetches within this southern hemispheric source region that will make for overlapping events locally, keeping surf consistent through the period centered near 190 degrees.
The PacIOOS/CDIP Barbers Pt, Oahu and Lanai buoys 5/22 in the morning show the surf has remained steady for over 36 hours with a slight downward trend in the dominant wave period from 17 to 14 seconds. It also shows the start of a new event with a rise in the 17s band.

The new event was from a narrow fetch parallel to New Zealand 5/15. Seas grew over 30 feet along the narrow ribbon. As the fetch area shifted away from New Zealand, the fetch width increased as the wind speed decreased.
The event should slowly build to a peak late Thursday from 190-200 degrees. Additional long period swell is expected to overlap locally 5/23-25 out of 180-190 degrees from a separate fetch near the low center further SE of New Zealand 5/15-17. Near gale winds behind a front nosed well into the subtropics 5/17 and should keep shorter-period surf near the average locally into Saturday 5/28 as a new long period event arrives. 
 


Pauwela
3.8ft @ 6s from 86° (E)
3.5ft @ 8s from 90° (E)
 
Pure small windswell at the local buoy (so Hookipa flat to tiny), but the NW fetch we've observed in the last couple of days will provide the north shore with a moderate size swell over the weekend.

Wind map at noon.


North Pacific has a small NW and the windswell fetch.


South Pacific has a small S fetch and a bigger/stronger other one that is oriented towards the Americas, but we should get some angular spreading out of it.


Morning sky.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Wednesday 5 22 19 morning call

I'm on the injured list again, as yesterday I hit the reef pretty hard with my lower back. Fortunately it should only be a big bruise, no ribs or kidneys involved. No idea of how long it will take to heal. It will take what it will take and whatever it will take, I'll be perfectly fine with it.

I might take a break from the calls though, this morning I don't really feel like it.
All I can say is that Lanai is reading 3.1ft @ 15s from 191° (SSW) at 3am and the Lahaina webcam is showing some awesome waves so.... go get them!

Just for completeness of the online archive (one way of seeing this blog), here are the fetches maps.
North Pacific has a nice NW fetch.


South Pacific showing signs of slowing down a bit with just a small S fetch.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Tuesday 5 21 19 morning call

Yesterday the waves were knee to waist high on the Lahaina side, so I decided to test a prone foil board I'm borrowing. My experience with the prone foiling so far is something like 10-15 sessions on a fairly easy 7 footer. After that, I bought a 4 feet one and that was a brutal failure. This one is 5.2 and has many established foil board features (beveled rails and tail and heavy double concave starting from the very nose) and I wisely decided to get used to the popup on such a short board with a regular surf session. This time I was able to catch waves and go to the open face, which was impossible on the 4 footer. Even though for surfing it obviously sucked, I immediately knew this was a good foil board.


This is the first setup I tried: Kai front, IWA tail. Worked pretty good, then I changed to a reduced size IWA tail for more speed, but I didn't like the less lift. Overall, a fairly fun session, but my brain still compares it to SUP foiling which I greatly prefer for these two mean reasons:
- you catch more waves, as you paddle back out much faster
- you can use footstraps without having to uncomfortably lay with your chest on the front one. I'm seeing more and more proners using footstraps these days, sign that they are acknowledging the superior feeling of being so tightly connected to the board. Coming from strapped SUP foiling (and from strapped SUP surfing before that: strapped SUP surfing anyone? ), I knew about it already and put footstraps on my first 7.0 board right away. They were great, but, even if you are able to pop up and slide the front foot in right away, you still lose some time to find the back one. When you SUP, you catch the wave already with your feet in the straps and you can start foiling the wave much earlier.
You can read more about it in the post Foiling: SUP or prone?

Pretty much the main advantage of prone foiling versus SUP foiling for me remains the smaller and lighter board, but it's completely shadowed by the slow paddling. Since I used the same board for surfing and foiling in the same day, I can state that the paddling speed with a foil underneath is pretty much half of the speed without the foil. Comparing it is a mistake, as they are two different things, but the brain does that comparison automatically. Am I ever going to get used to it? Time will tell. One thing for sure, when the waves are good, I'm gonna surf.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
2.3ft @ 15s from 187° (S)

Lanai
2.8ft @ 15s from 191° (SSW)

Great numbers at the buoys today. As I suspected yesterday, the temporary dip in the energy was due to the source fetch crossing over New Zealand and now we're getting the energy generated on the east side of it. Pat Caldwell seems to confirm my observations:
The Tasman low pressure 5/11 raced SE across New Zealand reaching 60S to the south of French Polynesia with hurricane-force winds by 5/13. Severe gales aimed at Hawaii 5/12-13 over the 180-200 degree band, though limited in duration due to the fast track away and southerly component of the track relative to the Hawaii great circle band. This source could be enough to keep average surf on Tuesday 5/21 from 180-200 degrees with remnant Tasman holding on.

Numbers like that should ensure head high sets, but because of what Caldwell says, I would still strongly recommend to check the webcam before going. Check the webcam no matter what I, Caldwell, the buoys or anybody say. My guess is that at least half of the south shore goers don't check it before going and they get bad surprises like: "oh, it's smaller than I (or GP) thought!".
Another tip to avoid bad surprises is to google map your itinerary and find out if there's traffic.
45 minutes to Lahaina? Great, I'm listening to Siddharta.


North shore
Pauwela
3.3ft @ 8s from 93° (E)            
2.8ft @ 6s from 85° (E)
 
That small easterly windswell shouldn't make it to Hookipa, which I call flat from home, but there will be some small waves on the east facing shores with favorable lack of wind till 10ish everywhere.

Wind map at noon.

Hey, a NW fetch in the North Pacific!


South Pacific has a small fetch associated with a low well east of New Zealand and another POSSIBLE long one by the ice sheet of the South Pole. Those ones are extremely questionable, as the great circle rays map doesn't get down there, so we don't know if it's really oriented towards us. Probably not, we'll find out in a week.


Morning sky.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Monday 5 20 19 morning call

No photos from yesterday, this is an amazing display of unique style surfing by Maui's Clay Marzo. It looks like the embedded version has a problem (not sure if temporary), but you can always click on the link to get to it. His ability of reading the wave down the line and adapting to it without unnecessary movements is incredible.

Jesus Stance from Kamala Maither on Vimeo.

4-5am significant buoy readings
Barbers
1.6ft @ 16s from 205° (SSW)

Lanai
1.9ft @ 16s from 201° (SSW)

Tasman Sea energy down to 16s today and the webcam shows smaller waves than yesterday. There's still occasional chest high sets, like the one below, but don't forget that the harbor's size is always the biggest, in town and not. As usual, check the webcam before going.


I think the energy in the water is reflecting the time when, around a week ago, the fetch went over New Zealand (check yesterday's fetch maps collage). To see if the directions reflect that too (and they do), this morning I used Google Maps to draw some very remote shadow lines. The resulting map is below and I added it also to the usual Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines post.



North shore
Waimea
1.2ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)

Pauwela
3.6ft @ 6s from 68° (ENE)
3.1ft @ 8s from 69° (ENE)

NW energy pretty much already gone at the buoys, I expect Hookipa to be flat to tiny and stay like that for quite a few days.

Wind map at noon.


Nothing in the North Pacific.


South Pacific has a big fetch oriented towards the Americas (blue circle) with a small portion oriented towards us (red circle). We should still get angular spreading energy from the first one.


Morning sky.


Sunday, May 19, 2019

Sunday 5 19 19 morning call

This photos shows one of the spot that I found working the best with yesterday's southerly energy. It mostly was a knee to waist high day, with occasional long period bigger sets up to shoulder high. A little bigger at the harbor, but that's always the case thanks to the amplifying effect of the deep water boat channel.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
2.7ft @ 10s from 205° (SSW)                        
1.2ft @ 15s from 208° (SSW)

Lanai
2.4ft @ 8s from 173° (S)
1.5ft @ 11s from 208° (SSW)
1.5ft @ 18s from 218° (SW)

1.5ft 18s at Lanai is a wonderful number which hopefully will produce more fun size waves to ride today, but don't forget that the source of this swell was in the Tasman Sea, so it's intrinsically inconsistent. Below is the collage of the maps of May 11, 12 and 13 to illustrate the point.
There's still 1.5ft 11s leftovers of the incredibly resilient south swell that blessed us for the whole last week and I don't know where the 8s energy comes from, I only hope (and think) it won't bother too much the lineups. Check the webcam before going.


North shore
NW101
3.4ft @ 10s from 325° (NW)

Hanalei
3ft @ 11s from 313° (NW)

Waimea
2.6ft @ 11s from 312° (NW)

Pauwela
4ft @ 7s from 48° (NE)
2.8ft @ 11s from 329° (NW)

New NW swell arrived at all the buoys (the NW swell registered a max of 4.5ft 10s yesterday), so there will be NW waves at Hookipa all day in addition to the NE windswell. Nothing to be particularly excited about, the windsurfers will enjoy them more than the surfers I think. Should be around head high.

Wind map at noon.


North Pacific still not producing much.


South Pacific in full swing instead. Unfortunately the strongest fetch (blue circle) is oriented towards the Americas, but we'll get some angular spreading.


Morning sky.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Saturday 5 18 19 morning call

This is Cloudbreak on May 14th as posted by Tavarua Island Resort. The reason I post it (other than its intrinsic beauty) is because some of the waves we're going to surf today are the leftover energy that made it through the many islands on the way. Don't get too excited, as Tasman Sea swells are inconsistent in nature.


This has nothing to do with the waves, but I found it on fabebook and thought about sharing. It's the plan for a proper Paia bypass to get rid of the line at the traffic light, which everybody who lives past Paia seems to hate so much.

For me, it represent an opportunity of practicing the acceptance of reality. A fairly easy one actually, as it's wonderful to be able to admire the extremely tall palm trees by the baskeball court gracefully waving their branches in the wind.

Before moving to Maui in 2001, I've lived in Rome for 11 years and I've experienced what being stuck for hours on the Grande Raccordo Anulare surrounded by cement and polluted air means. As far as traffic lines go, the Paia one is my favorite in the whole world. I'm almost afraid to lose it and I'll make sure I'll celebrate it even more each time I'll be "stuck" in it in the future.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore
Barbers
1.6ft @ 12s from 185° (S)
0.8ft @ 20s from 208° (SSW)

Lanai
2.2ft @ 13s from 173° (S)
0.8ft @ 20s from 214° (SW)

South swell on the steady decline (it lasted pretty much a whole week), but still hanging in there with 2.2ft 13s. Fortunately, the new long period SSW one is right on its heels, but, as I say at the beginning, those ones are even more inconsistent than the S ones. Check the webcam before going. You probably noticed that I'm not reporting from there anymore... because there's no more need, there's the camera.

North shore
NW001
3.9ft @ 11s from 315° (NW)

Pauwela
3.4ft @ 7s from 59° (ENE)

Here's a common mistake I've seen many times: if you only look at the table of Pat Caldwell, you would see 3ft 11s from the NNW predicted for today. But if you read what he says, you'll see that swell is only predicted to pick up in the PM. And that's for Oahu, which means that for Maui it will pick up most likely during the night. In other words, this swell is for tomorrow for us. Maybe something at sunset. For today (just like for the last two days), that small 7s energy will make for waves that will actually break and generate some white water (so it's not technically flat), but that's about it. Very weak and barely surfable with a longboard.

North Pacific has two lows, but not fetches for us.


South Pacific has three fetches, the one I like the most is the SE of New Zealand.


Morning sky.