Monday, January 27, 2020

7am hookipa is head and a half to double and relatively clean with a bit of wind. 
7

Monday 1 27 20 morning call

FishBowlDiaries posted the windsurfing shots of Jaws from two days ago in this album. This is Browsinho in a ballsy aerial off the thick lip.


But, as predicted, there were plenty big waves to play with also yesterday. Hookipa was occasionally double mast, I picked this one from this album by Jimmie Hepp.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
No southerly energy at Barbers, but it might be masked under the NW one. This week might have small waves from the south, as the collection of the maps from Jan 20 to 24 shows below. Checking the Lahaina webcam is the only way to find out without going there.


North shore
NW001
10ft @ 13s from 319° (NW)

Waimea
6.9ft @ 14s from 323° (NW)            
2.7ft @ 13s from 325° (NW)
2.4ft @ 10s from 332° (NNW)

Pauwela
6.9ft @ 15s from 324° (NW)
4.2ft @ 12s from 325° (NW)
 
NW swell holding up nicely. Below is the graph of NW001 and Pauwela, together with the Surfline forecast, which sees the swell slowly declining in the next couple of days. The decline of the size of the breaking waves will be due mostly to the decline in period. As confusing as that may sound, 7ft 15 make for bigger waves than 7ft 14, which is bigger than 7ft 13s and so on. The size is not the only thing that changes, also the power and overall hollowness goes down when the period declines. 
That said, Hookipa will still have plenty size for the experts only (possibly still occasionally up to double overhead), while more protected spots down the coast will be smaller. Great wind (or lack of thereof) all morning till noon.


Wind map at noon
       

     

Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
4:21a  +2.5   3:43p  +1.3  10:53a  +0.6   9:43p   0.0    7:06a   6:15p

NW fetches continue to populate the western Pacific, no complains about that.


Micro fetch down south (too small for anything at all).


Morning sky.


Sunday, January 26, 2020

Sunday 1 26 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Jan for his donation.

As I reported from the beach twice, yesterday morning the waves at Hookipa came up earlier than I expected. Fortunately I managed to squeeze a sesh in before it got too big for my taste. After which, I took some pics: this is Middles.


This is Matt Meola ripping at Lanes. The waves were beautifully peeling down the line and he couldn't find a ramp for his aerials. Here's a quit chat we had when he got out of the water:
"Hey Matt, no ramps for you today?"
"Nah, too soft"
"Does that mean you don't enjoy doing turns anymore?"
"Oh, I like doing turns, but on steeper sections! It was too mushy out there."
I got out of the water because it was getting too big and he found it too soft and mushy... it's all relative I guess, the skill gap is ample.


If some of Jimmie Hepp's subscribers complained about him not being at Hookipa, I take the full blame as I texted him that Hookipa was going to get too big for windsurfing (someone did sail out eventually) and instead sent him to Honolua to shoot the Legends of the Bay contest, which was won by a ripping Ian Gentil. This is my pick of Jimmie's album.
Honolua's shadow line sits at 335, the swell was from around 315, amazing how long period swells wrap around lands.


There was action everywhere, this Zach Schettewi at Jaws. Photo by FishBowlDiaries. They're editing the windsurfing shots, stay tuned tomorrow.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
No southerly energy at Barbers, check the Lahaina webcam. There's some small, kinda useless wrap from the NW swell. That's a good sign for the second day of the contest at the Bay, which today will see all the remaining categories (other than Open Men).


North shore
NW001
11.3ft @ 16s from 314° (NW)

Waimea
13.1ft @ 17s from 319° (NW)

Pauwela
11.1ft @ 17s from 318° (NW)

Below is the graph of NW and Pauwela together with yesterday's Surfline forecast. You can see how the swell picked locally in the mid morning, much earlier than the Surfline forecast and even earlier than my guessed red dotted line. On the NW graph you can notice how it's staying at elevated levels of size, just slowly comind down a second or two in the period. That means another full day of big waves for Maui's north shore. Hookipa too big for the common mortals, seek sheltered/shadowed spots, if you're one of them.


Wind map at noon
       



Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
3:55a  +2.6   3:06p  +1.3  10:27a  +0.6   9:12p  -0.2    7:06a   6:14p

North Pacific has another long NW fetch. Next swell is predicted by Surfline to peak at 9ft 15s from 309, but there will be no shortage of waves in the meantime.


Nothing from the south.


Morning sky.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

8.40am the new swell is picking up faster than I thought. There's already occasional double overhead sets. Light trades. 
7 if you want handle. 
7am hookipa is head and a half plus with a bit of texture and not the cleanest breaking pattern. 
6.5

Saturday 1 25 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Jeff for his donation.

This is Billy Kemper's incredible barrel at Jaws two days ago. A ride that will earn him some price money of some sort, for sure.


Hookipa had good size waves during the day yesterday, this is my pick of Jimmie Hepp's album.


I took this one at sunset. Conditions weren't particularly clean because of the light onshore that picked up in the afternoon.



4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
No southerly energy at Barbers, check the Lahaina webcam.

North shore
NW001
14.3ft @ 17s from 324° (NW)
4.3ft @ 10s from 326° (NW)

Waimea
5.5ft @ 12s from 320° (NW)
2.7ft @ 20s from 313° (NW)

Pauwela
4.9ft @ 13s from 323° (NW)            
2.6ft @ 9s from 346° (NNW)
2.3ft @ 11s from 329° (NW)
1.1ft @ 22s from 311° (NW)

New long period XL swell on the rise all day today, while the previous one is on the decline with still almost 5ft 13s at 4am. Plenty waves on offer, Hookipa will be surfable in the morning (still overhead) and possibly getting too big (and windy) to surf in the afternoon, but might epic windsurfing for the pros. Let's see how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the fetch:

Another winter-caliber low pressure formed east of the Kuril Islands 1/20 and deepened to storm- to hurricane-force winds well west of the Date Line 1/21-22. The system occluded 1/22 as it stalled near the Date Line. A long, wide fetch from Asia to within 1200 nm of Hawaii set up 1/22-23 centered within 310-320 degrees. Gales also covered the 290-310 and 320-330 degree bands. The result will be another round with a wide swell directional swath arriving in Hawaii. The low centered weakened and moved westward near 50N west of the Date Line 1/24.

JASON satellite 1/23 showed seas within 22-27' about 1000 nm away from Hawaii. The ASCAT satellite showed a wide fetch of near gales to low end gales 1/22-23 with 30-40N from the Date Line east to north of Hawaii, that should add ample short- to moderate period surf over the weekend.
The end result is going to be a wide wave period band, or broad- banded spectral energy for the upcoming event 1/25, with active waves in the 12-20s bands arriving simultaneously. In addition to the wide directional spread, should make for less regular breaking patterns.

Below is the collage of the maps of Jan 21, 22, 23 and 24.


These are the graphs of NW001 and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast, which, once again, seems to be a bit late. The best waves at the Legend of the Bay contest will be in the late afternoon, just in time for the open men final. The morning should be fairly small, with mostly the leftover of the previous swell.


Wind map at noon. It will get windier after that and this marks the end of those fabulous 4 days of light wind we just had. Jan 23 best day of the year so far without a doubt.
             

Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
3:27a  +2.7   2:29p  +1.3  10:01a  +0.6   8:39p  -0.4    7:06a   6:14p


North Pacific has a new WNW fetch. 8.7ft 15s from 311 predicted by Surfline on Wednesday night.


Tino's remnants not offering much anymore.


Morning sky.

Friday, January 24, 2020

Friday 1 24 20 morning call

Yesterday didn't disappoint one bit: gorgeous big glassy sunny waves all day everywhere. John Patao took photos of Jaws.


And he also took this one in his neighborhood. That's what the common mortals had to deal with on the north shore.


Unless they chose to surf inside the harbor, which looks pristine too in this photo by Tom Jewell.


The HSA Legends of the Bay contest has been called for this weekend: Open Men on Saturday and the categories below on Sunday. Heat draw here.


6am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Nothing at Barbers, check the Lahaina webcam (there's almost nothing).

North shore
NW001
6.3ft @ 13s from 320° (NW)
4.5ft @ 10s from 326° (NW)
3.5ft @ 7s from 293° (WNW)

Waimea
5.1ft @ 13s from 308° (WNW)
3.1ft @ 10s from 319° (NW)

Pauwela
6ft @ 14s from 319° (NW)
4.4ft @ 11s from 327° (NW)
 
Below are the graphs of NW and Pauwela. The XL swell has peaked yesterday mid day and today will continue to slowly decline. With 6ft 14s to start with, there will still be plenty waves to play with, with a much more manageable size. Hookipa should still be double over head at least. No wind until around 11am when a light onshore breeze is predicted to pick up.
 
Wind map at noon
       
     

Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
2:58a  +2.7   1:51p  +1.3   9:35a  +0.7   8:06p  -0.4    7:06a   6:13p

Yesterday's very long fetch (weekend swell) is much less impressive today. Surfline has the swell peaking Sunday morning at almost 14ft 16s from 315, but if it trend of late prediction is going to continue, that might happen Saturday evening instead. We'll know more tomorrow, of course.


The cyclone Tino continues to offer a fetch.Caldwell calls for a small swell Dec 26-30.


Morning sky.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Thursday 1 23 20 morning call

Hookipa had moments of nineness yesterday morning. This is Tanner Hendrickson who is seeded in round three of the Sunset Beach contest (together with Cody Young, who was out too). Cody's brother Levi did great in Oahu winning two heats, but the sensation of the day was Jackson Bunch's 9.5 ride, which you can admire on this page. I think they didn't give him a 10 because he could have got barreled earlier, but the drop was ridiculously difficult. No contest today, it's too big.

This is Hookipa at sunset: extremely clean, double overhead long period lines.



4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Only NW wrap at Barbers, we have to check the Lahaina webcam to see what's in the water. It seems that there could be the occasional wrap, like in the picture below.


North shore
NW001
10.9ft @ 15s from 290° (WNW)

Waimea
12.1ft @ 17s from 316° (NW)

Pauwela
10.6ft @ 17s from 319° (NW)

The XL NW swell is in full swing. Below are the graphs of NW and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast, which was, as noted yesterday, about 12 hours late and a little too big (up to 15ft, while it might only reach 12ft). Doesn't change much for the common mortals, waves will be too big almost everywhere on the north shore (even though I saw some surfers on the Kahana webcam), other than extremely protected spots like the harbor. The west side will be the call, if you're looking for more manageable sizes.


Many international surfers are on the island: big wave Peruvian Surfer Miguel Tudela was at Hi-Tech yesterday buying cartridges for his inflatable vests, Yuri Soledade bought some padding for his ski and Kelly Slater was spotted at the airport. It's going to be a fantastic day of big waves, sunshine and no wind all day. Jaws will probably be the center of the media attention and might easily be pretty crowded.

Wind map at noon
       

     

Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
2:28a  +2.7   1:10p  +1.2   9:09a  +0.8   7:31p  -0.5    7:06a   6:12p

North Pacific has a massive NW fetch that pretty much takes all the ocean NW of us (14ft 16s predicted by Surfline on Sunday).


South Pacific has a strong fetch oriented towards Central America. Only a small portion is oriented towards us, we might get a bit of angular spreading.


Morning sky.

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Wednesday 1 22 20 morning call

Another day of intense action (that's the reason for the late call... my body needed extra rest). Surfing at Hookipa was pretty damn good, this is Connor Baxter.


But I had even more fun SUP foiling at kite beach. This is Dave Kalama in a photo by Tomoko.


6am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
1ft @ 16s from 211° (SW)

I went and checked the fetch maps from last week to see if there was something that would justify that 1ft 16s at Barbers, but I didn't find anything. As a matter of fact, the Lahaina webcam shows very little. Check it out yourself.

North shore
NW001
6.7ft @ 19s from 287° (WNW)

Waimea
2.3ft @ 10s from 343° (NNW)
2.2ft @ 11s from 339° (NNW)
1.7ft @ 22s from 307° (WNW)

Pauwela
3.9ft @ 9s from 59° (ENE)
3.1ft @ 11s from 347° (NNW)
0.8ft @ 5s from 79° (ENE)
0.7ft @ 22s from 324° (NW)
 
New XL NW swell on the rise today, let's see how Pat Caldwell describes the evolution of the fetch:
The pendulum has swung in the weather pattern for the north Pacific. The first weeks of January were dominated by ridges of high pressure resulting in above average trades and trade windswell and below average long-period WNW to N swell. The jet stream began readjusting late last week into this week with an overall southward shift of more zonal to troughing-type patterns. This should lead to a series of winter-caliber surf episodes in Hawaii over the next week.

A severe-gale to storm-force system tracked east from NE of Japan 1/17 to a position NNW of Hawaii mid 1/21, holding steady near 40N. It is unusual since most systems of such strength are associated with an occluded low pressure system, that tends to slow or stall in track.
The pattern of 1/17-21 should result in a wide swell directional spread due high seas generated from great circle rays from 290-340 degrees. The dominant direction should be within 305-320 degrees through its life cycle locally. This direction had the longest captured fetch.
The system was closest to Hawaii 1/20-21 with severe gales about 1000 nm away. JASON altimeter measured seas to 32' in this area, with those highest seas aimed slightly NE of Hawaii. Models show the system moving east of the Hawaii swell window as it weakens 1/22.

Wave Watch III gives the onset of the long-period phase overnight Tuesday night. The wave model has consistently been early for long-period events on the order of 6 hours. This adjustment places the rise in surf Wednesday morning from 290-330 degrees, with heights climbing above average mid day. After sundown, heights should ramp up into extra large levels, meaning high enough for breakers on outer reefs. The peak of the swell is expected pre- dawn, coinciding with the spring high tide. This should give above average wave overwash centered on the high tide.
Heights are expected to remain extra-large through Thursday with a slow downward trend from 290-340 degrees. Heights should continue above average on Friday from the same wide swath. A new event is due overnight Friday.
 
Below is the collage of the maps of Jan 18, 19 20 and 21. I put an arrow to indicate the fetch.

Below are the graphs of the NW and Pauwela buoys, together with the Surfline forecast. It's interesting that Caldwell says that the WW3 model has been early of about 6 hours, because instead I noticed that the Surfline forecast (mostly based, like any other forecast, on the WW3 model) has been late instead. Based on the NW graph, in fact, I drew a red dotted line on Pauwela to show how I think the swell will pick up in Maui. That's a good 12 hour earlier than the Surfline forecast.
As a consequence, the morning should see small size waves (3ft 11s leftover from the NNW swell of the last couple of days) and the new very long period sets should start being noticeable only in the afternoon, with some significant size only at sunset.


The WQS contest at Sunset Beach is on this morning (legendary Derek Ho in the first heat!). Unfortunately, to watch it live, it now requires to download some software and I haven't been able to make it work so far. Good, I'll go surfing instead.

Wind map at noon
       



Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
1:57a  +2.6  12:25p  +1.2   8:42a  +0.8   6:55p  -0.4    7:07a   6:12p

Next XL NW swell is being created by the strong NW fetch below. 14ft 16s predicted by Surfline on Satruday.


South Pacific has a weak S fetch. Too weak to do anything for us.


Morning sky.