Friday, November 30, 2018

6.30am hookipa is mostly flat with occasional waist to chest high clean waves.

Friday 11 30 18 morning call

A SUP foiling and a longboard session for me yesterday. Here's SUP foiler Micah putting it "on the rail" in a photo by Gofoil taken two days ago.

4am significant buoy readings
North shore
1.8ft @ 15s from 328° (NW)

1.9ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)                        
0.6ft @ 16s from 320° (NW)
1.6ft @ 12s from 352° (N)
4.1ft @ 9s from 98° (E)
1.4ft @ 12s from 347° (NNW)
1ft @ 11s from 15° (NNE)
Relatively easy read of the buoys this morning. NW101 has new low long period energy that Hanalei is just starting to feel too. As mentioned in the epic post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines, the travel time from Kauai to Maui at 16s is about 8 hours. That means that those 0.6f 16s (or whatever is left of them after the extra travel) is going to hit Maui around noon. That also mean that in the late afternoon this new energy should start being visible, also considering the lack of other significant swells.

As far as the morning goes, Pauwela reads a 98 degrees windswell, which might completely miss Hookipa, which will then only have minimal energy left from the northerly quadrants and be once again close to flat (it happened just before the recent giant swell).

Here's the shadow line for Waiehu: 80 degrees. Which means that a good part of that easterly energy will be blocked there too, but for sure there will be more than at Hookipa. Relatively short periods like 9s still wrap around land points, but can't do as sharp as a turn as long period ones. Hookipa has a shadow line of 65 degrees and it requires a much sharper bend, which justifies the sentence above.

South shore
0.1ft @ 25s from 191° (SSW)

0.8ft @ 14s from 192° (SSW)
I reported that Barbers reading for the sake of statistics, you don't see 25s often. Only a tenth of a foot though, so impossible to detect in the water. Lanai has almost a foot 14s, that should make for ankle to knee high waves on the Lahaina side.
Wind map at noon.

North Pacific has an articulate fetch in the NW corner. Too bad the low north of us has not generated much just yet. Thanks anyway for the lovely southerly flow.

South Pacific has a small fetch in the Tasman Sea.

Morning sky.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

6.30am hookipa is mostly  chest to head high with very occasional bigger sets. No wind, but not particularly lined up either.

Thursday 11 29 18 morning call

A shortboard session for me yesterday. Below is a two photos sequence of this ridiculously high double grab back flip whatever you call it aerial by Matt Meola.

Didn't land it, but almost.

Earlier Jimmie Hepp shot the windsurfers, the result is this gallery.

4am significant buoy readings
North shore
2.3ft @ 12s from 293° (WNW)

3.5ft @ 12s from 308° (WNW)

3ft @ 13s from 320° (NW)
2.3ft @ 11s from 324° (NW)

4.6ft @ 13s from 319° (NW)
4.3ft @ 8s from 78° (ENE)
3.2ft @ 7s from 72° (ENE)
All buoys still trending down from the giant swell, today it should be mostly head high to occasionally overhead at Hookipa (will report soon) and tomorrow even smaller. Great wind conditions all morning though.
South shore should be flat.
Wind map at noon.
North Pacific has many fetches, but none well oriented towards us. That has been the case the last couple of day and it will reflect in a relatively small day tomorrow. Then the low close to us will send us a swell on Saturday, the size of which depends on how the fetch unfolds. Models agree for an extra large swell Wednesday/Thursday next week.
Nothing from the south.
Morning sky.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

6.30am the bigger waves at hookipa are in the double overhead range. Medium wind and relatively clean faces.

Wednesday 11 28 18 morning call

A SUP foiling and a shortboard session for me yesterday. The Jaws contest was held in windy conditions, nonetheless the spectacle was amazing. Two incomplete waves gave Billy Kemper the win according to the judges. Here's a tow surfing photo from the day before that Kai Lenny posted and this is the comment I wrote:
Scoring so high incomplete barrel rides means rewarding the guy who took off too deep more than the guy that took off in the right spot. For me, you won the contest. Amazing performance, Kai.

4am significant buoy readings
North shore
6.6ft @ 14s from 315° (NW)

7.8ft @ 13s from 316° (NW)

8.7ft @ 14s from 323° (NW)

7.1ft @ 15s from 319° (NW)
5ft @ 13s from 320° (NW)
4.2ft @ 9s from 18° (NNE)

NW swell down from the giant levels of the last couple of days, but still pretty solid at all the buoys. The slow downward trend will continue today, but some strong easterly trades will make conditions very choppy on the north shore

South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, it's gonna be flat for a few days.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific has a couple of small fetches.

Decent southerly fetch in the South Pacific.

Morning sky.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Tuesday 11 27 18 morning call

A SUP foiling and a shortboard session for me yesterday. The Jaws contest was on and this is Greg Long in a photo from the water level by John Patao.

The contest was canceled after too many dangerous wipeouts like those two below from this gallery by Jimmie Hepp.

What made those waves so hard to successful catch and ride was not so much the size (well, that too of course), but more the speed at which the waves were traveling. At 20s of period and in open ocean, the waves travel at 31 knots. At 16s they travel at 25 knots. When they start feeling the bottom, they all slow down, so when they're breaking they're slower than that, but there is still a difference in the speed of a breaking wave between 20 and 16 seconds of period. That's why it should be more user friendly today... from that point of view. Unfortunately, the trades will be stronger.

French competitor Justine DuPont sure whishes that decision was taken before her injury occurred. The women's contest was held before the men's, with Keala Kennelly winning on two incomplete rides.

What yesterday really showed is the limits of prone paddling into such big long period waves. As soon as the contest was called off, Kai Lenny instead put up a show with his tow board getting barreled, coming out and...

...throwing aerials. Later on a few skilled wind and kite surfers hit the uncrowded lineup (the WSL circus left) and scored pristine challenging conditions.

Let's see what happens today, the link to watch is this. And while all this was happening, the ladies competing at Honolua scored PERFECT conditions with waves up to three times overhead. I don't have photos of that, but there's plenty highlights on the contest page.

3am significant buoy readings
North shore
13.1ft @ 16s from 318° (NW)

9ft @ 17s from 315° (NW)
5.5ft @ 14s from 314° (NW)
4.7ft @ 10s from 331° (NNW)
4.6ft @ 12s from 317° (NW)
12.7ft @ 15s from 322° (NW)
11.3ft @ 17s from 320° (NW)
6.2ft @ 13s from 324° (NW)
The buoys are all trending down and locally Pauwela (graph below) peaked at around 2pm yesterday (I predicted 4pm, not too bad), but the waves are still going to be extra large (breaking on outer reefs). The problem today will be the trades that are going to be stronger than yesterday. As I type at 5am, it's already blowing 12mph in Kahului and that is not a good sign.
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys, should be flat today.
Wind map at noon. Possible busy day for the lifeguards at Kanaha rescuing wind and kite surfers.
North Pacific shows a complex situation with three rapidly moving fetches. Hard to predict the size for the second half of this week. Easy to predict excellent conditions instead, as there will be light southerly winds Thursday through Saturday.
Nothing in the South Pacific (the fetch in the Tasman Sea is too weak).
Morning sky.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Monday 11 25 18 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Renata for the donation sent via the Paypal button.

A shortboard session for me yesterday. The early morning saw some excellent conditions before the wind picked up enough to ruin the perfection. Here's some photos I took after my session. Looks like Annie.

Pat Fukuda was ripping as usual on his longboard.

Unfortunately both shots I got of him are washed out, but look at that wave.

All the way around.

Kain Daly (I think).

Enjoying the view.

He set up the top turn in the pocket perfectly with this nice bottom turn, but had to give up because of the other surfer in the way.

I caught a giant fly that landed on the head of this semi-bold guy... just kidding, that's my hairy knee. The small black spot is an ant and both were my spiritual teachers for a while.

Here's a couple of gopro shots from my session. I forgot to set the angle to the widest setting.

This is a non particularly impressive wave. Watch it if you got nothing better to do, otherwise skip it.

4am significant buoy readings
North shore
19.4ft @ 19s from 308° (WNW)

9.9ft @ 20s from 317° (NW)
9.8ft @ 15s from 323° (NW)

8.2ft @ 17s from 325° (NW)
4.8ft @ 13s from 320° (NW)
3.8ft @ 22s from 321° (NW)

7.2ft @ 17s from 325° (NW)
5.8ft @ 14s from 322° (NW)
3.6ft @ 11s from 3° (N)
2.5ft @ 22s from 330° (NW)
Almost 20f at 19s at the NW000 buoy, that doesn't happen often... this swell really is giant. Below is the collage of the report buoys graphs, together with the Surfline forecast. The NW000 buoy seems to have peaked around 3am at around 19-20f 18-19s. IF that is true (could go even higher in the next few hours), by applying GP's rule of thumb, 19s take 13 hours to get here, so we should expect the same to happen in Maui around 4pm. That is reflected on the red dotted line I drew on Pauwela's graph, prolonging the 22s light green line that has just appeared on it. Notice how this swell had a first pulse at 14s (the one I surfed in the early morning), then a 17s one and now the big 20s stuff. That reflects the complex interaction between the fetches that have built seas upon existing seas.
The Jaws contest's men heat draw is below (taken from this page). The toughest heat of Round 1 seems to be n.4, imo. The official call will be made at 7am. With a much stronger wind forecast for tomorrow, I think they'll try to finish today. They need to run 8 heats and 2 finals. If the heats will be 45 minutes and the finals 1 hour each, they need 8 full hours. That means they have to start at 9am to finish at 5pm. If the qualifying heats are going to be longer, they need even more time. Are the waves going to be big enough in the early morning? We'll find out. The other option is that they wait for the afternoon to start and finish the event tomorrow morning, with a stronger wind (and a higher production cost).
Many are wondering if they allow to go down and watch from the cliff. Here's what I heard: The usual acces (the one in front of Peahi Rd) is in such bad shape that not even a 4x4 could make it. So they're using the access on Oili Rd and that one will be blocked (need a press pass). So maybe it will be possible to just walk down the usual access, but if it's in that bad of a shape and with the rain that is gracing the north shore as I type, even that might be challenging (and very muddy). I recommend to stay home and watch it online. That's what I'm going to do, after having found a spot for a early morning sesh of some sort, as usual. And let's not forget the contest at Honolua and the one at Sunset Beach (this last one will be too big, imo).
South shore
1.2ft @ 11s from 212° (SW)
Lanai still feels a sliver of SW energy. Yesterday I heard it was knee high on the Lahaina side, probably flat to calf high today.
The big gyre still has a large fetch oriented towards, but the winds are relatively weak. The strong stuff in now oriented towards the US west coast. The new low forming off Japan will be responsible for the next NW swell.
South Pacific has a small S fetch (the one in the Tasman Sea will get blocked).

Morning sky.

Sunday, November 25, 2018

6.30am the bigger waves at hookipa are already in the double overhead range. Here's a set that closed out the channel between middles and pavilions. But there's also lulls and smaller sets with very clean faces.

Sunday 11 25 18 morning call

A longboard and a windfoiling session for me yesterday. The waves were very unusually small for the season all day at Hookipa, consequence of that "well deserved break" that the North Pacific took in the last couple of days. Not only it was well deserved (plenty NNW swells in November), but also necessary and very temporary. As we know, in fact, starting today we're going to have an extended period of big waves.

At sunset there were some small and very inconsistent NW lines at Hookipa. This is one of the biggest waves I saw at the point.

Flat and yet crowded. I think Pavillions deserves the title of most crowded spot of the island (and the one of GP's least favorite).

4am significant buoy readings
North shore
6.3ft @ 14s from 305° (WNW)
5.7ft @ 17s from 315° (NW)
7.3ft @ 14s from 300° (WNW)
5.5ft @ 15s from 315° (NW)
4.7ft @ 14s from 317° (NW)
2.7ft @ 9s from 96° (E)
1.6ft @ 6s from 82° (E)
Wonderful readings at the buoys. With no wind in the morning, this is going to be an excellent day of surfing on the north shore of Maui. Notice:
- the original dominant direction of the swell is around 300. At this moderate size, I don't think Honolua will have much, the girl's contest might have to wait (while the Sunset Beach one will be on for sure). Also the energy down towards Kahului will be minor. It's a day for the Hookipa's lefts.
- the NW buoy is already sensing a considerable amount of 17s energy.
- Pauwela has minimal windswell and from a direction that won't affect Hookipa at all. For a change, expect and excellent number in the early morning beach report.
Below is the graph of the four reported buoys. This first pulse peaked around 8f 14s at 4pm at the NW one. Applying GP's rule of thumb for the travelling time (16h @ 16s +/- 1h per 1s), the travel time of a 14s swell is 18h. So we can expect the swell to peak around 10am in Maui and stay elevated all day, before increasing to giant levels tomorrow. With much more favorable winds compared to the day after, I think they'll try to run the Peahi contest all day Monday. If so, Jaws windsurfers, your day is Tuesday.
South shore
2.2ft @ 14s from 196° (SSW)
Lanai shows some energy and I saw some waves at Ala Moana yesterday evening, so I think it's not going to be flat again on the Lahaina side.
Wind map at noon calls for epic slog and surf wavesailing conditions. I might be late at work...
The massive gyre in the North Pacific keeps spinning. The map on the right highlights the winds that are directly aimed at us.
Here's the isoboars at 6am. The whole North Pacific is been stirred.
South Pacific has a weak S fetch.
Morning sky.