Thursday, December 31, 2020

Thursday 12 31 20 morning call 12pm update

When this morning I posted the Waimea reading, I completely overlooked a secondary reading of 1.6ft @ 22s.

Fortunately, I left the page open, so I saw it when I got back home after a bike ride. At 10am Waimea is now reading 5ft 20s, so no doubt that the new swell will be visible in Maui in the afternoon, gonna come up fast and furious! Lots of overlapping energy in the water and plenty wind though, I don't think it's going to be particularly good anywhere on the north shore, other than the harbor. 

With the NW101 buoy now reading almost 15ft 17s from 336, Honolua Bay will be the place to be at sunset today and all day tomorrow (if you can handle size and crowd).

10am

Hookipa has a mix of sizes from head high to double overhead plus. Plenty wind and a few talented surfers that still manage to make it look good. But it's not. 
3.5

Thursday 12 31 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Ely for the donation.

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

No shots from yesterday, here's a trippy one by Ben Thouard.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, the Lahaina webcam is down, but there shouldn't be anything.

North shore
NW101
12.9ft @ 17s from 334° (NNW)

Waimea
7.6ft @ 15s from 315° (NW)

NW buoys are going up again, Pat Caldwell explains why in his last piece of Meteo Poetry on the NOAA website before retiring.

The next offspring in this extra-tropical cyclone family formed near 35N, 160E 12/28, raced ENE and reached the Date Line early Tuesday with hurricane-force winds. The track then turned more NE as it continued to deepen to 960 mb, reaching near 42N, 168W early Wednesday. The reduction in surf potential due to the fast track was well offset by the extreme winds acting upon existing high swell over the 310-330 degree band. Largest seas to 40 feet 12/30 are aimed NE of Hawaii, though 12/30 morning JASON satellite registered seas of 32-36 feet with a more direct aim at Hawaii in an area about 1000 nm away. Given the wave travel decay rule of thumb of half of the height reduced for each 1000 nm travel, that places deep water swell off Oahu late Thursday of long periods of 15-19 seconds, that would manifest at the peak of the event to giant levels, defined by the common larger, though less frequent, sets surpassing 40 feet on outer reefs in zones of high refraction. With a close source, events typically rise and fall faster, with the extreme heights likely centered overnight Thursday as the New Year rings in. It should be from 310-340 degrees, though dominant near 325-330 degrees. Heights should slowly settle down Friday though remain extra-large through the day. Heights should fall sharply Saturday to levels below the seasonal average by the afternoon from 310-360 degrees. Remnant shorter-period surf is expected for Sunday morning as a new event slowly fills in.

Below are the maps of Dec 29 through 31 that will help follow the above description. The low he describes is indicated by a red arrow.


Below are the graphs of NW101 and Waimea together with the Surfline forecast. I circled in red the new rise at the first and drew a red dotted line to indicate when the same rise should happen in Maui: in the second half of the afternoon. I doubt it will be particularly visible (maybe at sunset), as the waves on the north shore are going to be big all day anyway. If you follow the trajectory of the low above, you'll see that this swell will also have a relatively quickly changing direction starting from NW to NNW and then to N. At one point (sometimes tomorrow), Honolua will have no shadow from Molokai and be pumping with the straight offshore easterly trades. Hookipa might be surfable by few this morning, before possibly being off limits again tomorrow.

Meanwhile on Oahu, one solitary courageous soul is out at at maxed out Pipeline.


Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Wednesday 12 30 20 morning call

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

Epic show at Hookipa, this photo is by Jimmie Hepp, who posted this album.


These are the photos that I took with my compact camera, starting with Annie.


Air 1 goes to rescue 5 divers in distress. Unfortunately, two of them didn't make it.


Kai Lenny rode a Jaws gunny board like a shortboard.

Ian Walsh borrowing Kai's board.

First sailor out.

Ricardo Campello rode an old school PU custom Naish from back in the days that measured 8 feet 10 inches. It took him a couple of waves to get adjusted, but soon he was ripping as usual. Couple of big aerials, which unfortunately didn't have good light, so here's a small one that shows the massive (for nowadays terms) length of the board.


4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW101
12.1ft @ 16s from 330° (NW)

Waimea
10.4ft @ 15s from 321° (NW)

NW swell still rising at the buoys (graphs below), today the waves will be pumping again on the north shore with Hookipa too big for 99% of the surfers (tempted to write 100%, but you never know with the crazy talented top Maui surfers). Most big wave surfers will probably be at Jaws this morning.


Meanwhile, on Oahu, also Pipeline is too big for 99% of the surfers (there's a few guys out, but they're just trying to survive).

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Tuesday, December 29, 2020

10am

Hookipa already has double overhead sets and it's only going to get bigger. Easterly trades are filling in. 
7 if you can handle 

Tuesday 12 29 20 morning call

Thanks to blog readers Michelle, Greg, Alex and Jaecey for the donations.

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

This pretty radical shot was tagged to Talis-Rain Tonkin. Jumping off the water with a foil on such a big wave (likely in Mauritius) is a very risky move.


7am significant buoy readings and discussion
.
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW001
9.7ft @ 16s from 322° (NW)

Waimea
5.8ft @ 18s from 322° (NW)

New very long period XL swell will be on the rise all day.Here's how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
A low-pressure cell bombed, meaning rapid deepening of the central pressure, 12/25-26 in the NW Pacific to near 940 mb near 50N, 170E. This established a parent Aleutian low pressure pattern covering a massive area filling the breadth of the western to central north Pacific. Hurricane-force winds favored the area closest to the low center with a long fetch over the 310-325 degree band. Gales to severe gales defined another long, wide, coinciding fetch over the 295-310 degree band. The former fetch had higher seas to near 50 feet as validated by the JASON satellite early Sunday while the latter, more WNW, fetch grew seas within 25-35 feet. The center of the parent low shifted ENE late Saturday into Sunday as highest seas began aiming more NE of Hawaii.

The extreme burst from 12/26 to early 12/27 associated with the former fetch allowed wave periods to reach well above 20 seconds in an area about 1800 nm away late Saturday. The 25 second wave energy can travel 900 nm a day. That matches the NOAA NW Hawaii Monday morning 12/28 buoy readings showing tickles to 26 second and more solid energy rising within 20-25 seconds. These forerunners race well ahead of the main swath of high swell, and should equate to a gradual rise 12/28 PM on Oahu. The rise should continue into Tuesday as breakers reach extra-large heights, meaning high enough to trigger outer reefs. The longer-period swell from 310-325 should dominate the breakers, with the 295-310 energy piggy-backing on by the afternoon
.

Below are the maps of Dec 26 through 28 which will help follow the above description.

Below are the graphs of NW001 and Waimea, together with the Surfline forecast. As you can see, the swell should be rising all day, with Hookipa at very manageable levels to start the day with, but most likely not surfable by most common mortals by sunset. 

The wind is calm in the morning, but predicted to pick up strong from the E later in the day. The usual wind maps are not available and that, together with the missing great circle rays fetch maps, the lack of any working webcams on the north shore and the imminent farewell of Mr. Caldwell, makes my task much more difficult. Nonetheless I'm not planning on quitting too (even though I do think about it sometimes) thanks to the love and support that you guys consistently show for this blog.

Meanwhile, at 8.45am Pipeline is rapidly becoming too big. A couple of big sets like this caught everybody inside. That must be not particularly fun.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
N/A

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Monday, December 28, 2020

9am

Hookipa has peaky head to head and a third high waves. No wind yet, but a bit sloppy nonetheless. 
5

Monday 12 28 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Don for the donation.

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

Tanner Hendrickson nailed this beautiful closeout re-entry at a particularly rough and unruly Pavils yesterday. 


Made with old footage, this video of the series "Life of Kai" was posted a couple of days ago.


6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
1.4ft @ 11s from 182° (S)

Minimal southerly energy at Lanai, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.



North shore
NW101
3.1ft @ 12s from 318° (NW)

Waimea
3.1ft @ 14s from 331° (NNW)

Mokapu
5.9ft @ 9s from 62° (ENE)

Small NW energy still in the water, but the dominant energy will still be the short period ENE one.
Home guess for Hookipa is challenging, head to overhead, kinda soft and peaky but no wind to start with.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Sunday, December 27, 2020

Sunday 12 27 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Oshri for the donation.

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

No photo of the day, Facebook proposed me a memory from 2013 which I captured:
Between paddle and footstrap, I'm applying a pressure on that rail, that I would not be able to apply on a regular surfboard.
That is beautifully compensated by the fact that the rails of a regual surfboard are way thinner and need way less pressure to be buried in the water.
Doesn't matter what you got under your feet. As long as you can put it on the rail
.

I didn't know yet, but that can be applied to foils too.


I'll take that back, I found this photo by Dan Taylor of yesterday's victory at sea conditions.

Good time to be injured: the wind forecast for the next 10 days is pretty intense.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
2.1ft @ 12s from 190° (S)

Slivers of southerly energy left at the buoy, check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
Waimea

7.6ft @ 10s from 38° (NE)
3.7ft @ 13s from 336° (NNW)

Mokapu
9.1ft @ 9s from 42° (NE)

NW energy trickling down at Waimea, but the raging NE windswell will be the dominant energy in the water. Together with the strong wind, that'll make for very rough conditions. Hookipa will be head and a half and more, but very disorganized. Probably a mark between 1
and 2.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.


Saturday, December 26, 2020

8.45am

Hookipa is head and a half and poor shape due to the short period ne energy mixed up with the leftover nw.
4

Saturday 12 26 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Javier for the donation.

As usual, I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2020 season of the MSR blog.

This is the video I filmed on the 24th. Not the video I wanted to film, but...

These are from yesterday morning at Hookipa.

Kai Lenny taking off goofy stance on one of his Jaws boards and still looking very good.


My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the afternoon action.

6am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
3.5ft @ 13s from 216° (SW)

Out of season southerly energy still at Lanai. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.



North shore
NW101
5.4ft @ 13s from 353° (N)

Waimea


5.3ft @ 8s from 19° (NNE)
4.6ft @ 13s from 319° (NW)
3.4ft @ 11s from 328° (NW)
2.1ft @ 16s from 324° (NW)

Mokapu
7.3ft @ 8s from 34° (NE)

NW energy tapering down while short period NE energy is on the way up. Tomorrow should reach pretty high levels (check the fetch on today's map). Hookipa size guess from home is head to possibly head and a half. Good wind conditions to start with, gonna get really windy in the afternoon.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).



Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):



South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):



Morning sky.