Showing posts with label south swells info. Show all posts
Showing posts with label south swells info. Show all posts

Friday, December 12, 2014

12 12 14 morning call

4am main swell buoy readings:

Maui north shore (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's north shore)
    7.7ft @ 13s from 328° (NW)
2.9ft @ 7s from 29° (NNE)
4.0ft @ 10s from 358° (N)

West lanai Maui north shore (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's south shore)
3.2ft @ 13s from 290° (WNW)
2.2ft @ 10s from 222° (SW)
0.2ft @ 4s from 179° (S)
Well 7.7f 13s would be a hell of a swell in other times, but after the run of big surf we had feels like a leftover. Instead it would be still very enjoyable if the fetch of trade winds we had for the last couple of days didn't add those two secondary 10s and 7s swells you can read on the maui buoy above.
Mixed swells are better than no swells, so let's not bitch about it, also because things are going to get much worse... you guessed it, the trades are coming back.
But not quite just yet.

The wind map below shows:
1) a new fetch of a new storm that will provide us with a new swell sometimes next week
2) the fetch that originated the swell that's gonna hit tomorrow. Remember, that one started very west (so Maui will get shadowed), but then it moved across the ocean and now is making waves that will get to us without any obstacles
 
3) the fetch of the current trade winds episode. You can see that we are right at the end of the fetch and because of that I don't think that today it will be strong enough for windsurfing. Maybe kitesurfing.

   
 
 
The thing I like about today's wind is that is supposed to start very easterly. That means that Hookipa might get some early morning wind, but down the coast could be fairly calm.
At least that's what the MC @ 2km map shows at 9am.

 
 
Unfortunately both the Hookipa and Kanaha wind sensors are reading 11mph at 6.20am, so that blue area might just be a delusion.
Here's the things with forecasts: sometimes they are correct and help us scoring sessions, sometimes they're not and reality might be different.
But it's also possible that it might glass off later in the morning, before getting the afternoon flow. I've seen it doing it.

One more thing. Here's the graph of the Samoa buoy on surfline:
 




Where's the Samoa buoy?
Well it seems to be pretty much half way between the area where most south swells are originated for us (highlighted in yellow below) and Hawaii.
I haven't quite used this buoy much, but I'm guessing that it's going to take an average of 3-4 days (depending on the period, of course) for swells to get here.
We'll monitor it and compare the graphs when the south swell arrives at the Lanai buoy, so we'll also see how much size it lost. My guess is that is going to be a 2-3 feet.


 
Time to go surf!
Have fun in the sun everyone!

Monday, December 08, 2014

12 8 14 morning call

5am main swell buoy readings:

Waimea
6.8ft @ 14s from 334° (NNW)
4.1ft @ 11s from 331° (NNW)
2.5ft @ 9s from 340° (NNW)
1.5ft @ 25s from 324° (NW)

Maui north shore (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's north shore)
    9.3ft @ 13s from 337° (NNW)
1.3ft @ 25s from 327° (NW)

West lanai Maui north shore (indicative of what's in the water on Maui's south shore)
    2.1ft @ 14s from 296° (WNW)
1.1ft @ 6s from 202° (SSW)
1.7ft @ 9s from 226° (SW)
 
Well big day it was yesterday and way bigger it's gonna be tomorrow. Surfline is calling for 10f 16s and those extra couple of seconds will make a big difference. One day I'll try to explain what  difference the period of a wave does, because I notice that most of the surfers don't really have a clue about it.
But let's focus on today which might be a fantastic day as well (or better a-swell).
The Waimea buoy went down to 7f at 5am and is showing a decreasing trend, the Maui one is still showing 9f, but we know that that should go down too. My guess is that by 7am, it will be something like 7.5f 13s. It is extremely important to know if a swell is increasing or decreasing, specially when it's at a level that might be borderline for someone's skills.
For example, 7f 13s is borderline for me at Hookipa, but knowing that is coming down  in size (not as many cleanup sets anymore) might make me decide to chance it.
Visual observation, as usual, will be key.

Below is the wind map for today. I circled a massive fetch that will send a massive swell on Wed-Thu (13f, 15s from 328).
I also indicated with an arrow the lovely wind direction the early morning will see. That SE flow means glassy to light offshore at Hookipa all morning, even though Maui county @ 2km shows a patch of light onshore in the afternoon. It's gonna another stunningly sunny day, so that is most likely a land breeze.


Below is the worldwide view and on this one I circled also the fetch down below. That is a tight little fetch, which is actually a tad closer than the classic fetches that send us the south swells in summer time.
The pic gives a nice visual idea how how much more distance the south swells need to cover before they get to our shores. I also indicated the approximate number of days the waves at the heads and tails of the fetches will take to get here.
You can understand that south swells tend to have a lot less energy (size and consistency) than the winter ones.

 
So another great of surfing in Maui today. Pick your spot based on your skills and preferences and have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. For the passionate SUPers, below is the flyer of a Maui made movie starring a bunch of the Maui rippers. Thursday at the MACC.