James Dawson sent me some Makena shorebreak shots from yesterday. That particular place has a life of his own, of which I have pretty much no knowledge at all.
6am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
Barbers
1.7ft @ 12s from 213° (SW)
Lanai
1.4ft @ 10s from 192° (SSW)
Tiny numbers at the buoys equal tiny waves on the webcam. Check it out yourself before going.
North shore
NW101
3.2ft @ 11s from 299° (WNW)
Waimea
1.3ft @ 11s from 319° (NW)
0.9ft @ 13s from 334° (NNW)
Pauwela
4.5ft @ 9s from 62° (ENE)
1.9ft @ 11s from 338° (NNW)
Bit of a westerly energy showing up at the NW buoy, that should increase throughout the day locally and add to the 4.5ft 9s of windswell. Hookipa should be around head high in the morning, possibly overhead in the afternoon.
Let's see how Pat Caldwell described yesterday the source of this small pulse and the one of tomorrow's bigger one:
A compact gale tracked east 10/19 from near Hokkaido, Japan. The small fetch area over the 305-310 degree band could add tiny to small breakers locally on Thursday. The WNW component should be short-lived.
The same low weakened to near gales as it reached the Date Line 10/21. It then raced NE as it strengthened into 10/22. Strong breezes to near gales behind a front reached to about 1000 nm away 10/22. Surf from this source out of 315-345 is modelled to build Thursday PM at levels below the October average.
A low pressure formed 10/23 along the aforementioned front NNW to N of Hawaii near 35N, 160W. ASCAT readings 10/23 AM show strong to near gale breezes. Models show the wind speeds increasing to gales Thursday with highest aim just west of Hawaii. It is expected to weaken sharply Friday.
Proximity to the angular spreading should bring surf above the October average on Friday, peaking Friday evening into the night from 330-360 degrees, then holding above average Saturday with a downward trend. It is expected to fade by Sunday.
Below is the collage of the maps of Oct 20 to 23 that will help follow. According to Surfline, the biggest energy of the next three days should happen Saturday with 6ft 11s from 328.
Wind map at noon.
North Pacific shows the low that will generate the first winter caliber swell of the season starting to deepen and the windswell fetch.
South Pacific has a narrow fetch E of New Zealand.
Morning sky.
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