Sunday, July 26, 2020

Sunday 7 26 20 morning call

Yesterday evening's hurricane preparation: a third peg. It worked, still there this morning!

This is the latest satellite pic (6:38am as I post).

Latest cone prediction.

I did quite a beginner mistake yesterday when I based my "epic surf" prediction on the maps. I forgot that the model at link n.-2 is much more reliable. Those ones show 3pm like the time when the winds will start clocking from the south and potentially cleaning up the otherwise extremely stormy surf. Still a prediction with a high degree of uncertainty.
--PS. Sorry, I erroneously posted the 2pm map earlier, this is the 3pm one. Corrected at 9.40am.--

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
1.6ft @ 13s from 184° (S)

That would have been a fun small waves day, but the northerly wind wrapping down the Lahaina coast will make for poor conditions. Looks like it even moved the webcam a bit.

North shore
7.3ft @ 13s from 97° (E)      
6ft @ 8s from 73° (ENE)
Pauwela getting much more 13s E energy than I thought. 13s wrap more than a windswell, so Hookipa will definitely have waves, but much bigger on the eastern exposures. Very stormy and dangerous though.           

Wind map at noon
(the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.

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