Thursday 9 24 20 morning call

 North swell did not show up at all all day yesterday. Gp wasn't fazed.

It was a rare mid morning of glass in Lahaina.

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.

South shore
Barbers
1.9ft @ 15s from 194° (SSW)

Lanai
1.6ft @ 15s from 200° (SSW)

Lovely 15s energy at the buoys. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
N
4.8ft @ 15s from 346° (NNW)

Pauwela

3.8ft @ 8s from 81° (E)

3.4ft @ 5s from 70° (ENE)

2.2ft @ 15s from 337° (NNW)

New angular spreading northerly swell SHOULD be on the rise all day. Pat Caldwell diminished his prediction to 5ft 15s, which I think it's still optimistic. While it's true that the N buoy reads almost 5ft 15, the 346 degrees direction (if it's is correct!) suggests that most of that energy is going to miss us to the east. This whole swell is going to miss us to the east, so I only pushed my prediction to 3.5ft 15s (in which case, Hookipa will be overhead). The intensity of an angular spreading is a very hard thing to predict, that's when you use your knowledge created in years of observations of fetches. Mine calls for skepticism which, together with the fact that it feels kinda breezy out of my window already, will likely make me choose to go south again.
Below are the graphs of N and Pauwela together with the Surfline forecast (still calling for 6ft 15s).

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.