Tuesday 9 22 20 morning call

Lots of of hype on the upcoming northerly swell. Eddie Ogata is hoping to be doing what he's doing in this great shot by John Patao (how's the background?!). Read the discussion below to see what I think about that.

Btw, you guys probably noticed some changes in the posts (pictures don't enlarge as much as before when clicked, lots of more blank spaces and random weird fonts). Blogger has changed its interface and it's a bit of a nightmare for me. It takes many more clicks (hence time) for me to post the morning call. 

4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers

1.6ft @ 16s from 202° (SSW)

1.3ft @ 14s from 194° (SSW)

Lanai
1.8ft @ 14s from 186° (S)

Still nice numbers at the buoys, it's been a good run of waves on the south shore. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency. Unfortunately, the high tide seems to be imposing a bit of a tax.

North shore
Pauwela
3.7ft @ 8s from 60° (ENE)

Tiny waves at hookipa and eastern exposures.

People have been asking me: "so, first swell of the winter season on Wednesday?". My answer: "no, second swell of the season MAYBE on Thursday!".

First swell was on Sept 10, people forget easily. Tell you what, for what I've seen on the fetches so far, there's still nothing to get particularly excited about... unless you live in California! Let's see if Pat Caldwell illuminates us as usual:

The low pressure has broadened on Monday 9/21 in the Gulf of Alaska.
So far, the peak winds have been mostly mid gales and the direction
more zonal, or west to east, aimed at targets NE of Hawaii. Models
show over the next 36 hours from midday Monday 9/21 the fetch aiming
more SE with the head of the fetch dipping just south of 40N as
speeds hold in the gale bracket. The long, wide fetch of near 25 feet
seas aimed at targets NE of Hawaii is close enough for angular
spreading to bring surf above September average for north shores.

The more N direction, of 350-010 degrees, is due Wednesday PM before
sundown. Heights should build rapidly, well above average Wednesday
night. The event should be long-lived, with a peak on Thursday near
the Sept-May average. It should slowly drop Friday into Saturday,
reaching the September average by late Saturday from the same
direction.

Below is the collage of the maps of Sept 20, 21 and 22. As you can see, the fetch directly oriented towards us was always slim, we're relying heavily on the angular spreading for this one. Nonetheless, both uncle Pat and Surfline call for 6ft 15s on Thursday, so hopefully the WW3 model has it right. I'm way more skeptical, for sure it's not going to be a particularly consistent swell. Plus, it's going to be pretty windy, the windsurfers will enjoy it more than the surfers.

Wind map at noon (the other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.