Thursday, November 06, 2014

4am main swell buoy readings:

Maui north shore
8.1ft @ 10s from 346° (NNW)  
   
Waimea bay
5.5ft @ 10s from 332° (NNW)                     
5.2ft @ 11s from 328° (NW)

West lanai
1.2ft @ 14s from 210° (SSW)
1.2ft @ 10s from 298° (WNW)
1.2ft @ 7s from 240° (WSW)
1.2ft @ 11s from 286° (WNW)

Wow! 8f 10s from 346 are going to be interesting to surf this morning!
I believe this pulse of the swell is on the way down, because it peaked at the Waimea buoy last night around 8-9pm, as the graph below clearly shows.
 
 

Still, 8 feet are 8 feet!

Below is the wind map of this morning. Big beautiful captured fetch up there south of the Kurils, we all know that is going to send big waves towards the weekend, but we also know that the wind will be a bit weird, for sure not good for sailing on the north shore.



Maui county @ 2km has not updated their wind forecast, but I'm gonna call a final day of competition at the AWT contest. Maybe not right away at 10.30. Maybe a little later in the day the offshore wind should be able to hug the coastline enough for the head judge to send out the Masters division. I really hope so, because that means more fun in the water for me!

 
Wish me luck and have fun in the sun everyone!

PS. Well, maui count @ 2km just updated their maps, and it looks like we might be running 11 to 2!



Wednesday, November 05, 2014

That wave is head high, but there's a bunch of people sitting further out, so i guess there's bigger sets. Middles bit crowded already and a bit windy too.

11 5 14 morning call

4am main swell buoy readings:

NW
12.6ft @ 10s from 10° (N)

Maui north shore
4.7ft @ 9s from 64° (ENE)
4.6ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)

West lanai
1.6ft @ 13s from 222° (SW)
1.3ft @ 16s from 210° (SSW)
1.3ft @ 10s from 220° (SW)

Thank god the NW buoy is back just in time for the winter. That is a key buoy because it's the first one to be hit by the NW swells. Travelling time varies with the period, here's a article that can help you calculate that. For Maui add 2 to 5 h depending on the period.

The 12.6f 10s from 10 reading doesn't make too much sense to me, so we'll focus on the maui reading. 4.6f 13s means that there will be waves for the PWA finals at the windsurfing contest at Hookipa. The waves will not be as good as the 16s ones that the AWT Amateurs had the luxury to ride yesterday, but they might have a bit more wind.
They only need a couple of hours to complete the double eliminations (men and women) of their extremely time consuming system, and then there should be time for more AWT categories. There's still women, youth, masters and grand masters to run and not all of them will have the chance to compete.

The wind forecast looks pretty bad for the rest of the contest period in fact. There's hope for tomorrow if it's sunny (like it was yesterday) or for the last day (Nov 11), with a wave forecast of 8f 12s. I'll take it.

Here's the wind map for today.
 
 
Notice the big fetch NW of Hawaii and just south of the Kuril islands that will be the swell factory for all next week. Notice also the typhoon in the lower left corner. That will pass just east of Japan and will reinforce that fetch for more massive swell production.

Today I'm up early, so expect a photo from Hookipa at first light.

Have fun in the sun everyone!

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

New nw swell slowly filling in. Clean shoulder high sets.

4am main swell buoy readings:

Waimea bay
2.1ft @ 11s from 319° (NW)
2.1ft @ 15s from 327° (NW)
1.7ft @ 7s from 41° (NE)
0.5ft @ 9s from 37° (NE)

Maui north shore
5.4ft @ 9s from 85° (E)           
2.1ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)
0.9ft @ 16s from 338° (NNW)
0.9ft @ 2s from 81° (E) 

West lanai
1.5ft @ 14s from 202° (SSW)
0.9ft @ 20s from 217° (SW)
0.9ft @ 11s from 196° (SSW)
1.1ft @ 8s from 175° (S)

New NW swell on the rise.
Yesterday it was marginal conditions at Hookipa for the Amateurs division, but it was still fun.
Today the call will be trickier. The wind should be light and too offshore for the whole morning, but there's a chance for it to fill in enough in the afternoon, as the 1pm map below shows.




Next image shows the winds on the North Pacific today.
Upper left corners shows a fetch that will send the NW swell forecasted for Saturday.
Lower left corners shows a very strong typhoon that will pass just east of Japan and place itself just inside the Kuril islands and send more swells.
 
 
In other words, next week will have big waves every day.
Surfline forecast below confirms that. Unfortunately winds will be bad for the north shore, but that's when the challenge to find a spot with good conditions becomes fun.
 

Have fun in the sun everyone!

Monday, November 03, 2014

Waves are very small. I hope they won't run the contest today.

11 3 14 morning call

4am main swell buoy readings:

Maui north shore
6.9ft @ 9s from 75° (ENE)
2.4ft @ 3s from 76° (ENE)

West lanai
1.4ft @ 13s from 185° (S)
1.2ft @ 16s from 197° (SSW)
1.1ft @ 6s from 165° (SSE)
 
1.1ft @ 8s from 182° (S)

North swell is gone, we're left with windswell only. Direction is 75, which is pretty much parallel to Maui's north shore. 7f 9s is good size, but it's on its way down. So Hookipa will have occasional wrappers, but overall a small day well under the average for the season.

Strong sideoff wind all day, as the 11am map shows.





Up at the contest, the PWA has almost finished the double eliminations of both men and women. Their format is ancient and annoying. It takes forever to complete and at the end there's only 2 people at the time in the water.

I don't think they'll finish today (waves too small) and the AWT head judge will run the amateurs category in a brilliant new format. Everybody starts in round one and then:
 
  • Winner advances to 5th Round
  • 2nd advanced to 4th Round
  • 3rd advances to 3rd Round
  • 4th advances to 2nd Round
 
Like that he's gonna save a lot of time and everybody will still have a second chance.

So it's gonna be strong and gusty wind with pure windswell. That's exactly the opposite of my favorite conditions and it's a day in which I would not windsurf, if I didn't have to.
But I will and hope it will be fun no matter what.

Here's my heat:


I confess that I'd be bummed if the guy n.4 will not show up with a board with glass on fins...

Have fun in the sun everyone!

 

Sunday, November 02, 2014

Not too windy yet at 7.30, not too many people out, that looks kinda fun actually...

11 2 14 morning call

5am main swell buoy readings:

Maui north shore
6.5ft @ 9s from 67° (ENE)
3.9ft @ 11s from 2° (N)

West lanai
1.9ft @ 13s from 199° (SSW)
1.8ft @ 7s from 165° (SSE)
1.6ft @ 9s from 165° (SSE)
0.8ft @ 18s from 199° (SSW)

Everything went as predicted at the Aloha Classic so far. They're still running the PWA double elimination and, as the buoy clearly shows, today there's still waves on offer even though smaller than the past few days.

The rest of the week instead, all of a sudden, doesn't look as good anymore for the remaining of the AWT categories.
The map below is forecasted to happen on Tuesday the 4th and you can see how the trade winds will be shut down by that small low that will form north of the islands.
 

After that, if I look at the GFS maps for the rest of the week, I don't see anything good from the wind point of view. It might as well end up as a great PWA and AWT pro contest, but a poor one for the other categories. And there might be people wondering why the AWT has given the best days to the PWA.

Wave wise, this is definitely not the kind of El Nino conditions every surfer was hoping for, but we're only at the start of the winter, so things can change.

Have fun in the sun everyone.
Gonna be a bit challenging in the early morning, since there's some clouds over Maui, but the sun can shine inside your soul without having to necessarily be out in the sky.
Yeah whatever, go get them!

Saturday, November 01, 2014

11 1 14 morning call

4am main swell buoy readings:

Maui north shore
8ft @ 8s from 48° (NE)
5.9ft @ 12s from 356° (N)
0.6ft @ 3s from 74° (ENE)

West lanai
1.8ft @ 8s from 173° (S)
1.7ft @ 14s from 210° (SSW)
0.9ft @ 6s from 351° (N)
0.8ft @ 12s from 238° (WSW)

8 at 8 and 6 at 12, there's a lot of waves on the north shore.
The trick will be to pick a spot that will filter some of that energy and provide some clean rides.
The west side and Honolua bay are the easiest calls, but there's room for some creativity.
 
Great action yesterday at the Aloha Classic with the start of the PWA contest. They're two heats short of the final of the single elimination, so plenty more action since it's going to be windy again.
Below is the weather map that clearly shows that.
Have fun in the sun everyone!