Monday, April 13, 2015

4 13 15 morning call

The south shore of Maui is perfect for learning (and teaching!) how to surf and for family surf.
I spent there the morning and it was lovely.

Then more work and at sunset I had the pleasure to share some waves with kite phenom Ayrton Cozzolino. Here's the brief dialogue we had (in Italian).
"Ue' Cozzoli', you really rip on that thing!"
"How come you don't do the world tour?"
"Yeah yeah, I'm gonna do it!"

Keep an eye on this guy is all I can say.

4.6ft @ 7s from 46° (NE)
3ft @ 11s from 325° (NW)
2.2ft @ 5s from 48° (NE)
3.2ft @ 8s from 27° (NNE)
1.5ft @ 6s from 212° (SW)
1.5ft @ 13s from 335° (NNW)

4.3ft @ 8s from 55° (ENE)
2.2ft @ 5s from 58° (ENE)
1.5ft @ 13s from 349° (NNW)

1.3ft @ 6s from 174° (S)           
1.1ft @ 9s from 177° (S)
1.1ft @ 14s from 191° (SSW)
0.9ft @ 11s from 184° (S)

The reading I like the most of all of the above is the 3f 11s from 325 at the NW buoy. That means that Maui's north shore is not going to be flat while we wait for the big Wednesday swell.
BTW, I hate to create some expectations, but the sunset sailing session on that day has potential to be totally epic. I'll get a cortisone shot this morning for my trigger finger. I can't miss out on that.
That's another thing forecasts are good for: scheduling body maintenance activities... Once I canceled a surgery (to another trigger finger) because of a south swell. And it was a blessings, because that one went magically away and I didn't need surgery anymore.

Wind map looks very exciting today. The fetch NW of us is pumping some serious winds, while the one down under is now in that transition phase in which it gets over New Zealand. Not much waves generated in this particular day, but you'll see how beautiful that will look tomorrow.
Next week is gonna be killer on the south shore and since I'm going on a surf trip right after that, I can't ask for more. Still selecting the boards to take with me...


Now, since I'm a little early for my 6.30am business meeting at Hookipa (love my job), I'm gonna spend a few minutes to explain something.
Question: who checks the wave forecast on windguru?
Answer: windsurfers and kitesurfers. It makes sense, because they would check it for the wind and there it is, the wave forecast is conveniently embedded in the wind forecast. Too bad it's only ONE swell that is indicated at the time. Precisely, the one that has the highest number in the height column.
I hope that most of you guys know that there always are multiple swells in the water. Check the buoy readings every day and you'll see what I mean.
I also hope that most of you guys know that 6f 10s swell will generate waves that are a lot smaller than a 6f 20s swell. Just in case, that is explained in this post, that I labeled under "wave period".

So, dear wind-kitesurfer geniuses (sorry, I did hear someone saying the following), do you really think that all of a sudden the waves are going to change from 6f 10s from 59 at 8am on Wednesday to a whooping 7f  20s from 323 at 11am???
Of course the two swells are going to overlap instead. But the overlap is not shown since only the biggest number of feet swell is shown.
Windguru tries to do a slightly better job with their second table (below the wind one) in which they report the first TWO swells, but it's so hard to read that I don't even try. I like charts Surfline style. You can see when each swells rises and drops, directions, periods, everything you need to know.

Oh and btw, I don't know where they get their info from, but 7f 20s at 11am on Wednesday, it's WAY overestimated. At 7f 20s my guess is that Jaws would be 50f+ faces. I'm ready to bet my balls that the 20s readings on Wednesday will be a lot less than 7f. I'll hang them at Hookipa if they are.

So, not only they are badly and deceivingly presented, but they are also overestimated. In other words, my suggestion is: don't check windguru for the wave forecast.
Do check it for the wind, because the presentation of the GFS model forecast for 10 days is very easy to read and if you're intrepid enough to scroll down to the bottom of the page, you can see what two other models predict for the next 48h.

So do that if you want to know what the wind is going to do today, 'cause I don't want to be late.
Photo report coming up soon!


Rik said...

I agree that the windguru wavemodels aren't very good but I get the feeling that in Europe it's a lot better and more accurate, but hey that could just be me... The surfline style charts often confuse me. What do you think about the forecasts? I use them all the time for Europe but now that I'm here in Maui I'm not sure if it is as good here as it is in Europe.

Anonymous said...

GP answering from an anonymous account here.

If in Europe you get mostly windswell, that might be more accurate. I did notice too that they get the windswell numbers better over here too. Whatever model they're using, it overestimates the very long period ones instead.

As far as one website vs another, as far as I know, no one does wave forecasts. They all use data generated by models (most used is the ww3) available to everybody. A good wave forecast website is hence the one that presents the data in a way it pleases you.
I use magicseaweed when I'm in Indo (ligther pages to load in slow connection) and sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.