Thursday, December 19, 2019

Thursday 12 19 19 morning call

Usually I use the last week of the year to ask for donations to show the appreciation for the 2019 season of the MSR blog. This year I'll be off the island (leaving Monday), so I'll start now. And I'll start by thanking Renew Your Spirit, who has set up an automatic monthly donation. I can consider him/her a kind of volunteer subscriber, even though I never even asked for subscriptions (and never will!). Thanks a lot also to all the blog sponsors who advertise their businesses with a banner on the right column.

 Let me pump up the hype for the upcoming Pipe Masters finals with this once again incredible shot by Liquid Barrel showing Dwight Pastrana on an absolutely perfect bomb.


This is my pick of Jimmie Hepp's  album of the windsurfing action at Hookipa.



4am significant buoy readings and discussion
South shore
No southerly energy at the buoys, check the Lahaina webcam to check if any kind of NW wrap will find its way there (I really don't think so, but you never know).

North shore
NW101
7.3ft @ 15s from 339° (NNW)

Waimea
3.2ft @ 17s from 318° (NW)

Pauwela
5.3ft @ 9s from 79° (ENE)
3.1ft @ 6s from 75° (ENE)
2.8ft @ 18s from 323° (NW)
2.6ft @ 12s from 336° (NNW)

New solid NW swell on the rise all day. This is how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch: the fetch gained storm force east of the Kuril Islands 12/15 and reached the Date Line 12/16. Seas of 25-30 feet formed over the 300-320 degree band with the head of the fetch about 1600 nm away 12/16. Once east of the Date Line, the highest seas were aimed at targets NE of Hawaii with the system in the Gulf of Alaska 12/18.
Below is the collage of the maps of Dec 15, 16 and 17.


Below are the graphs of the three reported buoys. The swell peaked at 8ft 15s at the NW buoy, not as big as the past few ones, but enough to grant High Surf Advisory. The red dotted line is my prediction of how the swell will rise locally: steady all day.
To start the day, the variety of swells of different period and directions at Pauwela will give Hookipa plenty waves of different size and shape. The really good thing is that there should be no wind until 9ish on the whole north shore, so plenty spots to choose from. Happy hunting!
PS. 99% sure that the Pipe Masters will run today.


Wind map at noon
       


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
8:38a  +2.1  10:47p  +1.4   1:22a  +0.8   4:08p  +0.4    6:59a   5:51p   

North Pacific has the direct aimed fetches circled in red on the map and an angular spreading one circled in blue.


Off season intense storm down south, unfortunately the fetch oriented towards us is not particularly big, but it should send us a bit of a swell in a week, together with the other weaker fetch circled in red in the Tasman Sea.


Morning sky.

No comments: