Thursday, November 21, 2019

Thursday 11 21 19 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Roy for the donation.

I'm getting these epic shots of Pipeline by Liquid Barrel in my feed and I can't help sharing. Hope you guys don't mind...


Kai Lenny revealed what happened at Jaws: The carabiner from the bow line hooked on my hand as my JetSki was dragged onto the rocks at Jaws and ripped a good chunk. Plenty close ups on his FB and IG pages, if you like blood.


I'd rather post this shot by Daniel Sullivan instead that shows him foiling Peahi. Best luck with the recovery by the whole MSR team! :)


My pick of Jimmie Hepp's album of the windsurfing action at Hookipa.


The movie Sink or Swim will be presented tonight at Rock&Brews by the Salty Crew crew, including CJ Hobgood who was yesterday at Hi-Tech.



4am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Lanai
1.3ft @ 12s from 185° (S)

That's the only southerly reading I saw at the local buoys, but they're starting to be "overwhelmed" by the NW swell. Check the Lahaina webcam for conditions, the waves should be very small again.

North shore
NW101
10.6ft @ 16s from 323° (NW)

Waimea
8ft @ 17s from 303° (WNW)

Pauwela
5.8ft @ 17s from 318° (NW)
4.3ft @ 8s from 72° (ENE)
2.7ft @ 6s from 69° (ENE)
 
New strong NW swell on the rise, this is how Pat Caldwell described the evolution of the fetch:
A broad area of low pressure tracked east along 45N from the Kuril Islands starting late 11/15. ASCAT satellite 11/16-17 showed a large area of gales to severe gales. A captured fetch was set up over the 300-315 degree band reaching to near the Date Line early 11/18 with a broad area of 30 feet seas. Gales over the 300-315 degree band are modelled to reach about 1000 nm away from Hawaii early Tuesday as the system weakens and shifts north.
The WNW energy is predicted to arrive Wednesday afternoon locally with 17-20s wave periods, as the surf climbs above the November average. The long, wide fetch means a long-lived event locally with the WNW energy peaking near dawn Thursday and dropping near the average Friday. Moderate surf from this direction is expected on Saturday.
 
Below are the maps of Nov 16, 17 ,18 and 19 which will help follow. The fetch is the one indicated by the red arrow. The one indicated by the black arrow on the 16th is the fetch that generated that "one day swell" on Tuesday.
 
Below is the graph of the three reported buoys, together with the Surfline open ocean forecast. You can see the steady rise that happened yesterday at the NW buoy, which means that it will happen today locally. 16h @ 16s +/-1h -/+1s is my formula notation for calculating the travel time.
Pauwela already showing almost 6ft 17s at 4am means that Surfline was a little late in the timing (it happens quite often).
 
At this point I always feel like I wrote everything I needed to write. In fact, the buoy readings and the discussed trend should be enough for a knowledgeable reader to know where to go and what to do. But I also know that most readers would like to have a bit more help. So, what to do with a rising swell that was already up to 6ft 17s at 4am? Easy! You don't surf Hookipa!
Got to look for more sheltered places. And while you're at it, pick one that is sheltered by the strong wind too. Good luck.

Wind map at noon.


Kahului Tides
High Tide     High Tide     Low Tide     Low Tide       Sunrise   Sunset
10:35a  +2.2  11:51p  +1.7   3:52a  +0.8   5:34p  +0.3    6:41a   5:45p    

Strong NW fetch in the North Pacific, that swell is going to be here Sunday. I circled in purple the area of moderate easterly trades we are in the middle of. You'll see the isobars getting closer and closer then next couple of days. Consequently, the wind will get stronger and stronger.


Nothing from the south.


Morning sky.

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