Saturday 10 24 20 morning call

Thanks to blog reader Semi for the donation.

Jackson Dorian and a bunch of other very lucky kids.

5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.3ft @ 13s from 189° (S)

Lanai
1.5ft @ 13s from 193° (SSW)
0.7ft @ 16s from 200° (SSW)

Small numbers at the buoys should equate to small waves in the water.
Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.


North shore
Mokapu
2.7ft @ 8s from 63° (ENE)

Hilo
4.7ft @ 8s from 85° (E)

No sign of the big NW swell at the buoys, so for Maui it's only starting tomorrow. Today, the usual small waves at Hookipa and eastern exposures.

Here's Pat Caldwell description of the evolution of the fetch of tomorrow's swell:
A compact, gale, low-pressure cell near 45N, 175E late 10/20 moved ESE to 175W 10/21 as it strengthened. The system became occluded by late 10/21 which coincides with a slowing of the track, a broadening of the circulation gyre, and a strengthening of the surface winds. The pattern has remained fairly stationary 10/22-23 with a slight N shift of the center. It is expected to weaken sharply 10/24. The initial gales over the 315-330 degree band increased to within severe gales to storm-force winds after the occlusion late 10/21 into 10/22 as the fetch favored 320-335 degrees. The head of the fetch reached near 40N, 175W or about 1500 nm away 10/22 PM. JASON altimeter 00Z 23 OCT, or 2 PM HST Thursday, showed combined seas and swell above 20 feet near 40N, 175W, higher than modelled by the Wave Watch III. The long, wide fetch held the same into mid Friday 10/23 though winds have steadily dropped toward the marginal gale bracket over the 320-335 degree band over the last 18 hours. Long-period forerunners are due locally near sundown Saturday from 315-330 degrees. The event should be above the October average by dawn Sunday 10/25. The event should peak mid Sunday centered from 325 degrees. Heights should slowly decline to near the October average by Tuesday 10/27 from the same direction. The event should linger at small levels 10/28 and fade 10/29.


Below is the collage of the maps of Oct 20 through 23 that will help follow.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).
Wind maps not available today, here's two models of the windguru page both showing some trades in the afternoon.

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.