Thursday 10 29 20 morning call

Light kona and sunshine wind gave the waves at Hookipa a wonderful look yesterday morning.

These next two photos are of Jackson Bunch.

We both got the shot.

5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
South shore
Barbers
1.5ft @ 15s from 206° (SSW)

Lanai
1.6ft @ 15s from 194° (SSW)

In theory, those would not be bad readings at all, but they're not supported by any significant fetch a week ago (I went and checked) and in fact today looks pretty flat. No idea what's the source of it... and why both buoys read so high.
Hang on, here's what seems to be a set at Breakwall, so once in a long while maybe there is something. Check the Lahaina webcam if interested, for size, conditions and consistency.

North shore
NW001
6.2ft @ 9s from 335° (NNW)

Hanalei
4.4ft @ 9s from 346° (NNW)

Waimea
3.6ft @ 9s from 334° (NNW)

Mokapu
2.8ft @ 9s from 24° (NNE)

Possible small NW reinforcement could rise in the afternoon, but it doesn't matter at all, since the winds will then be unfavorable. Wave size, period and direction count very little compared to the local wind.

Here's Pat Caldwell's description of the evolution of the fetch:
A surface low pressure formed to the immediate NNW of Hawaii 10/26 and has remained nearly stationary into 10/28 near 35N, 160W. Models show it shifting slowly SE into Friday then lifting out to the NE Saturday. ASCAT satellite starting 10/27-28 showed a long fetch of strong to near gale breezes on the W to N side of the surface low pressure area. The seas are aimed highest at targets west of Hawaii, but close enough for angular spreading to deliver significant waves locally. As of midday 10/28, the NOAA NW Hawaii buoys do not show any clear indication of the new event. Short- to moderate-period surf is expected to build locally Thursday from 330-360 degrees with heights climbing to near the October average. This event should peak on Friday above average from the same direction, then slowly drop into Sunday. Proximity should equate with less organized breakers given the active energy expected in the 6-10s band along with the dominant 10-12 second energy, all from a similar direction.

Below is the collage of the maps of Oct 28 through 28. I put a blue arrow on the fetch uncle Pat's talking about. As you can see, it shouldn't produce much for Maui, as we are quite a bit east from where the energy is going to go. I put a red arrow on a remote NE windswell fetch which instead will keep Hookipa and the eastern exposures non flat.

Hookipa and eastern exposures will have small but possibly clean waves until around 11am, when the winds will turn NW.

Wind map at noon .The other ones can be found at link n.-2 of GP's meteo websites list in the right column (click on animation of the 10 meter column).

Fetches map (circles legend: red: direct aim, blue: angular spreading, black: blocked, yellow: apparent direct aim, but out of the great circle ray map, so not 100% sure).
North Pacific (about 4 days travel time from the NW corner of the North Pacific):

South Pacific (about 7 days travel time from east/west of New Zealand):

Morning sky.