Wednesday, January 13, 2016

1 13 16 morning call

Double SUP session for me yesterday and no action shots, so I'll post this shot from Jimmie Hepp from Sunday that shows how crowded Jaws was. Gonna be different Friday/Saturday, since that swell is going to be much bigger.

Surfline shows an incredibly steep rise for that swell: it calls for 3f 20s at 8am on Friday and then it jumps to 16.5f 18s at 2pm. The swell will peak during the night and there's talk of the Legends of the Bay contest being run on Saturday at Honolua. Today is the last day for signing up, if you care.

Steep rises are usually associated with close fetches.
Today's wind map shows the fetch that will generate that swell still quite far and west from us, but it's going to move rapidly towards us (setting up a captured fetch). You'll see how much closer it will be tomorrow.

It also shows again a fetch SE of New Zealand, so the weekend south swell should be long lasting.
Right in the middle of the Pacific, close to equator, another interesting feature I've been talking about for a couple of days.
The remnants of tropical storm Pali are just above the equator and as such the circulation around the center of low pressure is counter clockwise.
A new wider low pressure is forming around 15 degrees of latitude south of the equator instead and as such the circulation is clockwise. If you check the animation, the look like two wheels of a mechanism spinning in opposite direction.
Pali is going to dissolve soon, but the new one will get stronger and keep spinning in place in a very stationary manner for quite some time.
It'll do what Pali did and it would be interesting to see what kind of waves Fiji will get from a ESE direction. It will also send us some energy from the south, but we'll talk about that later.

There have been so many NW fetches that is hard to keep track of the swells. Also because it's not like one swell dies and the other one replaces it: they overlap.
And that is effectively illustrated by the Surfline graphs. I used to different colors to highlight the peaks of two different pulses at the NW and Pauwela buoys. Also notice how one swell (green line, shorter period) goes does and another one picks up (blue line, longer period) at the Pauwela buoy.
Might be hard to keep track of all these swells, but as long as there's waves, that's not too big of a deal I'd say.
Anyway, 5.6ft @ 15s from 327° (NW) is the main Pauwela reading at 5am and I'll take that any day.

MC2km map at noon shows another wonderful day with pretty much no wind. I absolutely love this weather.

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