Wednesday, January 11, 2017

1 11 17 morning call

Surfing was pretty spectacular yesterday morning, as the new NNE swell was picking up in size and consistency quite clearly. Despite that, a bit of a windy forecast made me choose to drive to Lahaina for the second session. It was only waist high (which my Lil' Rascal loves), but very clean. I checked iWindsurf on my way to work afterwards, and reading of 14mph at Hookipa gave me the confirmation that I did the right thing. For my preference, that is.

Here's my "new" approach towards the spot selection phase and the consequent session. As you guys probably can imagine, I put some effort into choosing the right spot for my preference/skill/mood. Effort might not be the right word, since it's something I enjoy. Let's call it time and energy.

BUT, once the choice is made, I'm gonna enjoy no matter if the conditions are going to be like what I thought or not. No thinking like: "mmm... it probably would have been better at that other spot I was thinking about". Once I hit the water, I'm ready to accept with no negative judgment whatever nature gives me. In other words, as long as I get wet, I'm always happy.

I'm trying to apply the same philosophy of "acceptance" for everything else that happens in my life, and for that I have to thank a wonderful book I just read: "The untethered soul" by Michael Singer. Strongly recommended.

Here's how Hookipa looked like in these shots by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery. At dawn, it was definitely not as big. As predicted, the swell picked up all day.

This one below with Marina shows better the wind caused chop and broken lip line.

Let's get an update on what's going on out there by master meteorologist Pat Caldwell (link n.9).

A gale low in the gulf of Alaska west of oregon and Washington 1/6-9 has set up a steady fetch over the 000-020 degree band in an area beyond 1500 nm away. Surf from this source should overtake on Tuesday the long- lived , closer-generated NNE event that held mid last week through Monday 1/9. The new NNE event should build late Tuesday, peak late Wednesday, then drop on Friday. There could be lingering tiny to small NNE surf on Saturday.

The long low spell from WNW to NNW is about to end. The blocking ridge near the Aleutians is shifting north with a stronger jet stream undercutting it across the breadth of the north Pacific from asia to America within 30-40°N. This should make for steering systems closer to Hawaii and give overlapping events.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.8ft @ 17s from 196° (SSW)
1.6ft @ 13s from 230° (SW)

1.9ft @ 16s from 193° (SSW)

Almost 2 feet 16-17 at the two local south facing buoys means that the south swell picked up quite a bit since yesterday. Depending on the unpredictable Kahoolawe blockage and based on my experience, I'm calling sizes up to shoulder/head high on the Lahaina side. BUT, you check the webcam before going, so you can't blame me if it's smaller instead!

North shore
5.9ft @ 14s from 25° (NNE)

4.9ft @ 13s from 7° (N)
Below are the graphs of the two buoys we care about with today's direction. I marked in red an unexpected rise at the N buoy. Notice how similar the two graphs are until that second hump. Is Pauwela going to follow? According to Surfline, it won't and I drew a blue dotted line to indicate that. But I also drew a red dotted line, which would be the case if that energy hitting the N buoy does get here. The only way to find out is to check the Pauwela buoy frequently during the day. Link n.11 and you check them all in one page. Thank you Surfline for doing that. 
But how can that energy eventually miss us? Because today it comes from 25 degrees. As I showed yesterday, the N buoy sits at 42 degrees from us, so it is in theory possible that that extra energy will just miss us to the east and hit the Big Island instead. I personally have no idea which one of the two will happen, uncle Pat said above that the swell will peak late Wednesday, we'll find out later today and I'll talk about it more tomorrow.

But the message here is: there's 4-5f 13s from the N and they are not going to go down at all. Eventually they will increase. With a north and a south swell at the same time and no wind, you can practically surf ANYWHERE on the island today. I might just do that, since this is my first day completely off since almost three weeks. Good timing, because I'm already calling it in advance another fantastic day of surfing in this paradise. Delay everything you can delay and go surfing. It's not a laundry day.

Current wind map shows:
1) The strong fetch responsible for the large swell that will peak at 13f 16s from 310 on Friday night. That is the same fetch marke n.1 on yesterday's map that moved east following the waves it was generating. Such situation is called captured fetch and it's one of the ingredients for the generation of extra large swells. Best day to go watch Jaws will be Saturday
2) a new small fetch way south in the Tasman Sea. We'll keep an eye on it, but at the moment it's not really doing anything for us. It will make the out of season Fiji surfers happy though.

MC2km map at 7am bring good news to the early birds. Once again, pristine conditions at dawn. I can tell you already the score in the beach report is going to be into the excellent range (8-10, like the WSL).

This is the map at 2pm, the first one that shows clear signs of some easterly trades wrapping around Pauwela point and making their way down the coast. I wouldn't necessarily trust that timing, if it's sunny, it could get a bit windy earlier than that.

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