Wednesday, January 25, 2017

1 25 17 morning call

Couple of sessions yesterday, the morning one was by far better, because the late afternoon one was absolutely horrible. I gave it 0.3 from the water. Wind, windswells, chop, all over the place. Not the best conditions to try a brand new board like the one on the left in the picture below, about which I'm gonna spend a few words.

The one on the right is my favorite board of my quiver. It's a 5.11x28.5L and a couple of months ago I thought I could use the help of a couple of more liters to catch the wind/bump infested waves at Hookipa, so I ordered the same model (T1) with the following dimensions: 6x19.5x2.5x30.5L
In the meantime, my paddling and wave reading skills got better (that's extremely good news) and I don't think I need the extra foam anymore. But the tester in me wants to try it anyway to understand the difference in all aspects, in particular:
1) paddling power
2) turning radius
3) flex

As I said, yesterday's session was so bad that I couldn't really figure much, other than yes, it paddles faster of course. The reason I'm saying all this, is that most likely I'll sell that board soon. It's a great all around shortboard for someone who needs those specs. Stay tuned for the official announcement or send me an email if you're interested already. Price should be around $450, the three fin boxes are Future.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.7ft @ 18s from 301° (WNW)           
1ft @ 13s from 249° (WSW)
First reading is obviously the wrap of the NW swell, second one I hope is a southerly one which direction gets influenced by the NW wrap induced oscillation. That would be good, since I have an extremely busy teaching schedule today.

North shore
13.3ft @ 16s from 307° (WNW)

12.9ft @ 16s from 328° (NW)
8.9ft @ 17s from 318° (NW)

6.5ft @ 18s from 323° (NW)
4.2ft @ 9s from 56° (ENE)
2.4ft @ 13s from 338° (NNW)

First, let me point out the different directions at the two NW buoys. I observed it all day yesterday and the difference was oscillating between 20 to 40 degrees. The buoys are 10 miles apart, so that doesn't make any sense at all, unless you accept the fact that the buoys are not precise. They are a great tool, but the forecasting models are actually more accurate. I noticed that in Indo where there's no buoys and just following the Surfline forecast is most times good enough to know what's in the water.

Talking about which, yesterday it was a clear example that also this last one can be wrong. Qui wrong, actually.

Below is the graph of the NW101, Waimea and Pauwela buoys. Let's first check those two readings on this last one that I indicated with a red arrow. The 1f 18s at noon is in line with what the NWW3 table was showing yesterday (it was 1f 21s, but again the buoys can be wrong, specially with such small energy). The 6f 18s at 2am is exactly what predicted in the NNW3 table that I posted yesterday (and it gives us the confirmation that at noon it really was 1f 21s, not 18s).

Let me remind you that the Surfline forecast was calling for 6f 20s at 2pm, so it was way off. The WW3 model feeds the Surfline one (which then adds a proprietary near shore model, a knowledgeable friend recently told me), so I have no idea of how they managed to screw up so bad in this case.

The peak at the NW101 seems to have happened around 2am with 15s period. By applying the new and improved GP's rule of thumb for the travelling time, that should equate to a peak locally 17h later, i.e. 5pm. Instead this time I drew the blue line based on the updated NOAA WW3 table below, that shows a peak of 7.5f 16s around 2pm.
When I say peak, I mean the size in feet. Someone might argue that 7f 17s will make bigger waves than 7.5f 16s and he would be totally right. But I need something to measure on the graph of the buoys. So the peak in size on the particular break depends on the how the break amplifies the different periods and might happen before or after the one indicated by the buoys.
I also underline the peak of the second swell right behind this one, which will happen at 6am Thursday with the same size numbers.
Got to run, no time to review all this, sorry about the possible mistakes. No beach report from Hookipa (which will be way too big for me anyway and most likely for anybody), I might manage to pull a quick Bay session in between lessons. If I do, I'll post a report around 9am.

Current wind map shows the following fetches:
1) pretty decent NW
2) tiny/weak NNW
3) narrow windswell

NAM3km map at noon shows trades from a good direction for sailing.

PS. Day 2 of the no coffee no oils fast, I'm not liking it at all, but I'm sticking to it.

No comments: