Saturday, January 21, 2017

Saturday 1 21 17 morning call

Before I forget, thanks to blog reader Roy for his donation through the "Donate" button on the top of the right column of this blog.

Sorry for the late call this morning, I plan also my rarefied social life around surfing. Yesterday I had a friend for dinner, tonight I'm going to a party, and that's all because this weekend surfing is going to suck. Otherwise, I'd rather surf than hang out.

One more good example of how that "being prepared" concept that I mentioned on yesterday's call, is my yesterday morning's session. I surfed from 7 to 10 because I knew that soon after that the wind would pick up. The rest of the surfers in the water was totally oblivious to that. I even heard one getting ready to paddle out saying the usual:"I can't believe the wind is picking up just now that I arrived...". Had he checked this blog or the MC2km maps, maybe he would have believed it instead.

Anyway, those three hours were really good. The 8.4 I gave from the cliff was a bit high at times, but I got one wave from green trees to the channel and that's a 9 by definition. Until the wind picked up, it was oscillating between 7.5 and 8.5 and that is a really good day at Hookipa.

Looks like it was a really good day also at Sunset Beach in Oahu. This is Hookipa local Will Hunt on a beautiful wave during his effort in the WQS contest. Photo by Zack Dougan.

This is my young Brazilian friend Julia Camargo who did 5th in the Juniors.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore
3ft @ 14s from 274° (W)           
1.2ft @ 10s from 264° (W)
0.6ft @ 20s from 229° (SW)

4.2ft @ 14s from 298° (WNW)           
2.7ft @ 9s from 159° (SSE)
0.7ft @ 20s from 246° (WSW)
Still plenty westerly wrap at the two local south facing buoys, but I also like those small 20s reading. Here's the wind map of 7 days ago Jan 14 that shows a pretty solid fetch in the Tasman Sea. Whoever clicked on the great circle links I posted yesterday, now knows that a fetch in that position will generate a swell that will come from around 210. The directions at the buoys are more westerly instead, because both are still subject to relatively heavy westerly oscillations because of the wrap of the WNW swell. That is not something I read somewhere, that is something I figured out myself by empirical observation (like half of the things I write on this blog, to be honest).
Anyway, I'm interested in that because I have a possible lesson that, as usual, I will only teach if I deem the conditions appropriate. The main problem will be the wind, as usual the webcam and the mc2km maps (IF and when they'll updated them) will be of great help.

North shore
10.9ft @ 9s from 2° (N)
6ft @ 12s from 315° (NW)

7.6ft @ 14s from 318° (NW)
3.4ft @ 10s from 334° (NNW)

5.7ft @ 14s from 321° (NW)
4.7ft @ 11s from 324° (NW)

7.4ft @ 13s from 313° (NW)
3.1ft @ 9s from 13° (NNE)

The 11f  9s from 2° at the NW101 are explained by the buoy's position. In the past hours in fact, it has been right in the middle of the fetch n.2 of the current wind map below and it's heavily getting hit by the associated northerly energy. None of those particular waves will reach us: there's no Hawaiian islands straight south of it. As you can see from the buoy map, the NW101 buoy sits at 303 degrees and so its readings are significant for us only when they come from a direction around that.

A little better positioned for the northerly swells is the N buoy, which instead sits at 212nm at a 42 degrees angle, as you can see from this N buoy to Maui travelling times post. But we don't really have a buoy straight north of us. That's why we observe the fetches every day. And by doing so, we know that the fetch moved east a bit compared to yesterday and that we will definitely get some of that northerly energy. Check the Pauwela buoy during the day and you'll see it.

But for the moment, we do have a lovely 7.4f 13s from 313 in the water, which would hit most north shore spots and offer plenty surfing opportunities, but because of the wind, pretty much everywhere will be blown out. Forget about Hookipa (I haven't seen it yet, but I don't need to and I'll score it less than a 1 from home), you need to find a spot that is very sheltered and filters out chop and roughness. Good luck.

Current wind map shows:
1) a strong WNW fetch. After a couple of days of rest, the "Tokyo express" is going full steam again and the resulting swell of that fetch will start rising Tuesday afternoon and peak in Maui at around 12.5f 16s from 318 all day Wednesday.
2) the "local" northerly fetch. Plenty energy from this fetch with the following characteristics:
- rough
- super consistent
- disorganized breaking patterns
- strong dangerous currents
Having a fetch this close is not a good thing.
3) a small but intense fetch in the Tasman Sea. Fiji's off season has been amazing during the last month.

NAM3km map at 7am shows already plenty wind and that's why I'm writing this at 7am instead of being in the water. The next maps don't change much, so expect a direction that will definitely be more onshore than ideal for the wind related sports.
Hang on, I just checked the iWindsurf Hookipa sensor and it says 13mph from 71 degrees, which is pretty close to ideal. So there's actually hope for the wind propelled guys, but it's not gonna be a clear sky steady trades kinda day.

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