Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Tuesday 1 24 17 morning call

If you followed my beach reports during the day, you'll know already that yesterday I surfed Honolua bay. The photo and report and still up there, so I don't feel like I need to report more about that.

This instead is one of my students that I taught after my session in excellent learning conditions.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.1ft @ 14s from 215° (SW)

Still a bit of energy from the SW, I told my students to go practice again this morning. Check the webcams.

North shore
7.8ft @ 10s from 106° (ESE)

7.9ft @ 9s from 62° (ENE)

No signs of the big NW swell yet at the NW buoys. Those don't feel the small long period oscillations well at all. Specially if there's an 8f oscillation every 10 seconds coming from another direction.

To have an indication of the arrival time, the easiest thing would be to go on the surfline offshore swell tab (link n.11), the free info of which (the first three days) is reported below. The first arrow of the new swell (orange color) is only reported at 2pm but it's already a very significant 6f 20s from 318. That's already closed out channel sets at Hookipa.

According to the new and improved GP's rule of thumb for the travelling time (13h at 19s and vice versa with linear interpolation in between), a 20s swell will take around 12h to get from the NW buoys to Maui. So you would expect at least 6f 20s to be at 2am at the NW buoys. 6f is no small long period reading, so this is definitely not what's happening.

I decided to investigate more and went on this NOAA page where you can see the detailed WW3 forecast for each single buoy. This first one below is Pauwela and I underlined the 2pm prediction which here is only 1f 20s from 320 (size is in meters, direction is the travelling to direction rather than the arriving from direction). 6f at the buoys are predicted to be reached only at 2am tomorrow, coupled with an 18s period.

The table below is the NW101 buoy. The first prediction for the new swell only appears at 6am today, but it's already a 3.6f one at 19.4s. Not sure why there's no smaller ones before, it looks like it follows the buoy's behavior of not being able to feel long period swells that are under 2-3 feet.
Notice also another new long period swell appearing at 6am of the 25th (yellow start, becoming orange on the surfline graph), which is another swell we should get Thursday.

So, the situation is extremely confusing this morning. Surfline's prediction of 6s 20s at 2pm today seems to be completely off because not supported by the real buoy data and by the predicted WW3 outputs for the points of the ocean where the buoys are sitting.

If we take these last ones for true, we will see the energy of this new swell starting to arrive in Maui only in the last few hours of daylight. 2-3f 20s are definitely noticeable in the water as they can already generate overhead sets at Hookipa. I guess we'll find out.
In the meantime, there's still 8ft @ 9s from 62° in the water, and that's what we'll surf this morning.

Current wind map shows:
1) wide WNW fetch
2) narrow windswell fetch
3) that storm is a beauty. Too bad the winds are not well oriented and New Zealand will block most of the energy.

NAM3km map at 7a shows some trades. Doesn't change much during the day. Those low res maps suck, I did send them an email to tell them that you can't zoom in more anymore. In the meantime, you guys check the MC2km maps (link n.17) when updated for a much better indication of what the wind is going to do.

Blog reader Dan asked me about the info I found about coffee and I'm gonna reply here so that everybody can read it. I do not want to turn this blog into a nutrition one, but I will throw here and there some nutrition pills whenever I feel like.

As he said, the info about the effects of coffee are very confusing. It's like the buoys today. Good, bad, not so good, not so bad. So I only asked a nutritionist friend of mine to send me a list of bad effects of it in order to motivate myself to try to quit. Here's the list she sent me and that was plenty for me.

Here are some short reminders regarding coffee:

- Activates stress hormones (feeling exhausted and tired – you can also google adrenal fatigue. Stress hormones are good in case they are only activated time by time when really needed – fight-flight etc. but it is very unhealthy to have them chronically up)
- Irritates mucous membrane of gastrointestinal tract – therefore bowel movement is activated – your body gets addicted to coffee for defecation – always bad when body is depending on something and losing its own ability to do certain mechanisms.
- Inhibiting iron metabolism
- Coffee is acidic (balance of alkalinity and acid in body is very important. Most people have way too much acid in the body. Coffee on top of it increases this)
- Withdraw symptoms like headache, depression etc. – why would a healthy food give your body withdraw symptoms?
- Coffee inhibits Adiuretin (name in German), a hormone which is regulating water and minerals, meaning Adiuretin takes care that not all the water and minerals are eliminated. If Adiuretin is inhibited more water and mineral get lost. There are studies that the body will adjust and compensate. But compensation means that water, minerals or energy is missing at other places...
- Influence on histamine. People who do not react good with too much histamine should definitely not drink coffee
- Enhances blood sugar fluctuation


Anonymous said...

Way to ruin my morning Coffee! Jeezo:)

cammar said...

I know, I must have lost a bunch of readers with that... I personally would rather know than not know. My nutritionist friend that send me all that still drinks coffee, so... it's up to you. Cheers.

Anonymous said...

As far as a discontinuing the cafe' I'd recommend not going cold turkey and rather slowly decreasing your intake over the course of a couple weeks. This can be done by reducing the number of cups/ volume, decreasing the strength of brew, transitioning to yerba. Caffeine withdrawals are the worst when forced, take your time and you'll be fine!