Friday, January 27, 2017

Friday 1 27 17 morning call

Another beautiful day in paraside was archived with a surf session at Honolua and a delightful light wind windsurfing session at sunset that was unfortunately interrupted because I got really cold. I''ll put my Peruvian 4/3 wetsuit in the car and use it next windsurfing sunset session. I hate when I have to cut a session short because I'm cold and seen the amount of fat (or lack of there of) I currently have on me, that is happening way too often.

Yesterday's mid day beach report (right below this post) explains in detail the conditions at the Bay, here's one shot I quickly took before going out. I was on a lesson/sessions tour-de-force again.

In the afternoon a bunch of very good sailors took the challenge of the big waves coupled with the light wind at Hookipa. This is Ross Williams in a beautiful bottom turn on a bomb in this photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

2.9ft @ 14s from 273° (W)

Still only wrap at the Lanai buoy, check the webcams. Lahaina had inconsistent waist high sets yesterday, should be smaller today.

North shore
4.1ft @ 12s from 328° (NW)

5.4ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)

3.9ft @ 14s from 329° (NW)           
3.8ft @ 9s from 53° (ENE)
3.4ft @ 12s from 322° (NW)
Here's an abstract of the latest meteorology poem by Pat Caldwell:
The recent episode that peaked on 1/25 to giant levels, meaning less frequent higher sets surpassing 40 feet at high refraction zones on outer reefs, was a challenge to the wave models. It arrived about 8 hours behind schedule then climbed well above predicted levels on 1/25. The models had depicted the highest swell well NE of Hawaii and some of the jason validations concurred. With a 941 mb central pressure and a mammoth size, pre-wave model/jason forecasters most likely would have got it right. There was an eastward increase in size with pacioos/cdip Pauwela, Maui buoy receiving the highest reading to 15 feet, since the brunt of highest swell missed Hawaii to the NE.

And here's an expert friend of mine explanation too:
The reason for the size was major combo swell. I remember the fetch chart. It was a large area from many directions.The one swell didn't disappear. The model merged with the other swell as the directions converged and the long period decreased. The significant height from the models will always be low in those merger cases. 

"Pre wave models forecasters would have got it right", "I remember the fetch chart"... I guess I missed an opportunity there!

Below is the graph of the NW101 and Pauwela buoys that show a clear and steady drop in the energy of the swell. Expect the trend to continue all day (the usual "at least a foot and a second"), before a new swell hits tonight. In the meantime, 4f 14s is a really fun size at Hookipa and that's where my dawn patrol will be.

Current wind maps shows:
1) the start of a brand new fetch off Japan
2) a strong NW fetch
3) a closer, not as strong NW fetch. There we go, overlapping energies again, there have been a lot of fetches from WNW to NNW lately.
4) a tropical disturbance setting up an easterly fetch that should send a rare not so low period east swell (7f 14s on Sunday)

NAM3km map at 7am shows very nice conditions for the dawn patrollers. Unfortunately, the iwindsurf sensor show 6-12 mph from 90 at Hookipa at 5.13am, so it might be a tad more than what the map shows. But overall, it should be pretty clean this morning.

After the recent modifications, the Windity closeup maps seem to be less reliable than they used to, so I'd rather use the OLD-NOT-UPDATED 1pm map of MC2km that shows lovely 15-20 mph trades from the east that should also make for some fairly groomed afternoon sailing conditions.
But do check the new updated ones when they come out (link n.17) of GP's meteo websites list in the right column of this blog.

PS. I added a some webcams to the webcams list. Please keep sending me emails or post comments if you know other ocean showing webcams on the islands.

PPS. Coffee/Oils fast update: still hanging in there with the oils, but I did have a couple of coffees since Sunday. It's just that when I drive by Lahaina I can't help by stopping at the Maui Grown Coffee shop and get my favorite: iced light roast. $1 if you have your own cup. Love those guys.

PPPS. Here's a video of a lovely wipeout at Mavericks during the session that went on yesterday.

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