Sunday, February 05, 2017

Monday 2 6 17 morning call

Here's how my day started yesterday.


And that's how it gloriously continued.


Kai Lenny parked next me and was kind enough to donate me a few minutes of his time.


Meanwhile, the Kona wind picked up a notch and the conditions deteriorated considerably. But you wouldn't be able to tell that by this photo of Greg Maddock.

Kain Daly has been in front of my lens often lately.

Bernd Roediger places a solid bottom turn on another beautiful right hander.

The wind got really strong pretty early and the windsurfers went out at Lanes.
This photo (by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery) makes it look much better than what I think it was.


Allright, that's more like it.


My guess is substantiated by the fact that I went windsurfing myself, but only at 5pm when the wind was considerably lighter. The invisible man shaking my boom from the other side during a gust was still pretty damn strong and mean though. Despite that, my session was fun, it was my second time sailing Middles on a Kona day. It was a bit of a fight until your were inside enough where the surfers lineup would be (there weren't any), when the wind suddenly dropped and the wave face turned from an ugly witch to a beautiful princess.

I only lasted 40  minutes and it felt like I sailed two hours. Kai Lenny parked next to me again (I had pity of him and spared him another interview) and jumped in the water at 6pm. I pushed the low light limits of my camera and got some shots of the very few surfers out (superbowl + strong Kona + declining swell would do that).


Young Annie.

Lucky shot.

Kai on tour by 2020? The big fan in me says yes.

6am significant buoy readings
South shore

All blown out by the Kona wind.

North shore
NW101
5.9ft @ 16s from 289° (WNW)

Hanalei
4ft @ 16s from 309° (WNW)

Waimea
2.7ft @ 16s from 315° (NW)

Pauwela
2.5ft @ 12s from 14° (NNE)           
2.3ft @ 4s from 197° (SSW)
1.8ft @ 9s from 340° (NNW)
1.6ft @ 18s from 319° (NW)

New WNW swell on the rise at all the buoys. I intentionally left out the other readings at all the buoys but Pauwela (that's why I call them significant), so that you guys can picture the swell advancing down the island chain. Notice how west the swell is at the NW101 buoy, that means major blocking by the upstream islands for us, but opening for the Kihei coast (whenever the Kona will die).

Below is the graphs of NW101 and Pauwela. Trying to interpolate between Surfline forecast, NOAA WW3 output and GP's new and improved travelling time rule of thumb (a super short version of which could be 16@16 and then you remember to add and subtract 1 on both sides for different periods), I tried to draw how the swell should rise today in Maui. Steadly, but not that steeply.

In the meantime, Yesterday's NW pulse went down a lot and the highest number (in terms of size in feet) is now back to our reeeally long lasting NNE swell that ruled last week. Don't be fooled by that, because the 1.6f 18s of the new NW swell will generate much bigger waves than the 2.5f 12s of the old NNE one. I categorically refuse to utilize any formula to calculate the size of the face of breaking waves based on size and period, they don't make any sense to me, since it depends too much on the spot. Observe your local spot with different swells and you'll learn.

No Hookipa report this morning, I knew it was going to be relatively small (maybe up to head high) and blown out from very early, so I took it extremely easy. I'll post one later.


Current wind map shows:
1) a WNW fetch coming out off Japan. The Tokyo Express will run full steam for the next week or more. Lots of westerly energy coming to us.
2) the Kona wind generating front is finally reaching us and behind it the close fetch that will make the buoys go up into the double digits tomorrow (14f 14s in the middle of Tuesday night).


I'm liking how the first half of February is looking: very wintry. The sea level pressure map below is for Sunday the 12th and it shows how the whole north Pacific is going to be entirely dominated by lows, relegating the highs to the mainland's west coast. That means complete lack of trades and plenty Kona's and other directions. And plenty waves, of course. Cheers.


Back to today, NAM3km map at 7am already shows significant Kona wind.


I was counting on the MC2km maps to be updated by now, but it's one of those days that the County employee that pushes the big red update button is late at work. Should be cranking all day as the OLD, non updated 1pm map shows below.


This 7am satellite picture shows the front that today should pass over us. Do you see how lucky we are to be where we are? Most times we only get the very tail of the front. If Hawaii was located more north, the weather would be much worse (and obviously colder) in these cases.


A bit of rain will come with it. I suck at predicting rain, but Windguru says late afternoon/night.

1 comment:

james rudman said...

What a cool kid, fruit don't fall far from the tree. His dad used to wait tables right down the street. Fond memories.