Conditions looked very dubious from the cliff (as reported at 6.30am on this very page), but we decided to paddle out anyway and lucked out into an hour an a half of much higher consistency. Within the first 5 minutes, he caught 3 waves. We had a lot of fun.
At 10 I was at work at Hi-Tech and after 2 I took him windsurfing. He's my dream customer, up for everything and good at everything.
5am significant buoy readings
Nothing at the buoys, probably flat but check the webcams.
2.2ft @ 14s from 327° (NW)
2.6ft @ 15s from 307° (WNW)
A new WNW swell is on the rise on the two NW buoys. At the moment, the numbers are very unimpressive: already down to 14-15s and only 2-3f, but the size should improve later today. As usual, the low but long period readings didn't even get registered by those buoys out in the very rough waters.
Also, do not pay attention to the different directions, we have learned that we need to wait for bigger numbers for more reliable information on the direction. Fortunately you guys have the luxury of having someone that is willing to pull back up the wind maps that show the position of the fetches that generated the swell, and that is the best way of knowing what direction a swell is coming from.
Below are the maps of Feb 19 and 20 (I managed to forget to number the fetches for 2 days in a row) and you see the fetch in a fairly distant WNW position on the first one...
Wind map Feb 19
... and a little closer and less west position on the second one, but worse oriented (max energy is going to miss us to the north and hit the American west coast instead).
Wind map Feb 20
Surfline has the peak of this swell at 7f 14s at 2pm tomorrow from 318 (after refraction). What about today? Below is the NOAA WW3 model output that predicts the first presence of this swell in the Maui waters only at 3pm with a mere 0.5f 19s that will eventually became a full foot at 6pm. Which translates into the possibility of a few long period sets at sunset.
So, with pretty much nothing from this swell in Maui today, what are we going to surf? Here's the local buoys readings at 5am.
5.4ft @ 9s from 355° (N)
6.9ft @ 7s from 62° (ENE)
How can Waimea feel 5.4f 9s from the N and Pauwela only 7f 7s of windswell? I'm not really sure, but I'm gonna blame the "insensitivity" of the buoys and assume (and hope) that the northerly energy is also in the Maui waters. That'll add a bit of juice to the otherwise weak (7s) windswell. You guys should check Pauwela later to see if that energy reappears. Or just wait for the beach report that I will possibly do today from Hookipa. Beach report or not, Pavillions will be the spot to (try to) surf today, since it's going to be blowing pretty strong already.
NAM3km map at 7 shows 20 knots of trades and similar speeds for the rest of the day.
Oh look, MC2km maps are available early today, and this is the 1pm one that confirms the strong wind.
Current wind map shows:
1) a strong fetch in the NW corner. 7.5f 16s from 309 on Saturday predicted by Surfline
2-3) tiny little fetches (fetchetielli in my dialect) that won't do much
That fetch n.1 is so strong that I'd like to post an "old school" weather map. Don't you guys miss those isobars? I do. Actually I don't, because I check it every day, I just don't post it every day. Link n.1 of GP's meteo websites list.