Sunday, February 19, 2017

Sunday 2 19 17 morning call

After 5 days of pumping waves, yesterday the ocean took a little break and the sizes went down considerably. But that was compensated by the lack of wind that offered clean conditions pretty much all day long. Here's Axel Rosenblad on a beautiful left at sunset.

He could have done two turns on it, instead he stayed high and gained speed to pull off this aerial off the closeout end section.

Other than the small size and low consistency, the conditions were quite pristine.

"Surf early, because some models show a light onshore/trades flow as early as 9am" I wrote on yesterday's call. Blame those models if that didn't happen and conditions stayed clean all day instead.
At the time I do this call, what I consider the most reliable wind prediction model (WRF on MC2km) is not updated yet. So, no matter what the other models (or I) say, you guys should ALWAYS check the MC2km website later in the day if you want to know what the wind is going to do.

For example, look how beautifully that model predicted the sunset glass off in yesterday's 6pm map. Too bad that those maps were not available at 6am when I do my call.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore

Nothing at the buoys, check the webcams.

North shore
8.3ft @ 12s from 331° (NNW)
6.6ft @ 10s from 324° (NW)
4.4ft @ 7s from 332° (NNW)
4.8ft @ 6s from 2° (N)
3.0ft @ 11s from 322° (NW)
2.8ft @ 9s from 320° (NW)
3.8ft @ 5s from 12° (NNE)
2.3ft @ 9s from 348° (NNW)
1.8ft @ 12s from 321° (NW)
1.1ft @ 14s from 340° (NNW)
Lots of periods at the buoys and that should be no surprise for those of you who pay attention to the fetches in the "Current wind map" section.
The swell that will pick up today will be messy and disorganized because:
1) it was generated (and still is) very close to us
2) there's plenty active wind on it.

The "mess" is also reflected in the buoys graphs below where I almost made it more illegible trying to highlight the 9s and 11s components at the NW101 and Waimea buoys. I also squeezed in the three days Surfline offshore swells forecast and that is not clear either, with a big gap in the graphs.
Anyway, keep in mind that at 12s the waves take roughly 20h from the NW buoys to us, so you will see the size increase pretty steadily but only in the afternoon. It won't matter much though, because the conditions are going to be extremely poor (on the north shore) due to the strong NE wind.

NAM3km map at 7am shows moderate NE winds. Check the MC2km maps at link n. 17 later for more updated info about the wind.

Current wind map shows:
1) NW fetch off Japan
2) N fetch that is generating the current swell and active wind. The high pressure to its right will move more east and give our desperate wind/kitesurfers the gift of a few days of wind. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are the only good days for sailing on the north shore. Next weekend it should be back to a lovely calm.

No comments: