I just went on facebook to look for a possible photo for this call and the first post in my feed was this from my friend Tommaso Riva, somewhere in Bali.
Blog reader Roy must be loving the blog and sent another small donation. Thanks a lot for that brother, everything helps.
5am significant buoy readings
1.9ft @ 14s from 145° (SE)
Amongst many different wrapping energy readings, Barbers feels something from the SE that I have no idea and no time to investigate about it. Lanai doesn't feel it and it could be because we're blocked by the big Island, check the webcams and you'll know what's here.
12.5ft @ 15s from 23° (NNE)
7.1ft @ 10s from 11° (NNE)
11.3ft @ 15s from 16° (NNE)
5.7ft @ 11s from 10° (N)
3.5ft @ 10s from 14° (NNE)
8.8ft @ 17s from 15° (NNE)
8.4ft @ 14s from 16° (NNE)
4.1ft @ 9s from 16° (NNE)
I'm posting both the 4am and 5am readings at Pauwela, so that you understand how much readings can change from on hour to another. That should suggest you not to believe blindly in the readings and to always include a margin of "buoy error" in your analysis and subsequent decisions. For sure, we have a new pulse of NNE energy and here's how Pat Caldwell described the source of it on Monday.
Ascat satellite estimates of surface winds at 2017-01-30-19Z showed a long fetch of severe gales with pockets to storm force W to NW of the low center, which was near 35°N, 145°W, NE of Hawaii. The head of the fetch is about 900 nm away. Models show the system remaining similar in strength on Tuesday as it drifts NE, with a steadier decline on Wednesday. This should make for a long-lived event. Those are not particularly strong winds, but he added that proximity is allowing winter-caliber surf.
It sure is and the good news is that the awful northerly wind is finally releasing the grip and that is confirmed by the MC2km maps at the end of this post and by the early morning wind sensor readings. It might still be a bit stormy due to the proximity of the source and the mix of the new 15-17s pulse and the old 10-11s energy still in the water. I would recommend to seek a spot that is partially sheltered, like the whole west side that will be firing today with that unblocked direction. Can't be bothered with the Hookipa report, it's too big to be surfed by 99% of the surfers, so dear 1% of capable ones, you'll have to live with the Mama's cam.
Current wind map shows:
1) the start of a new fetch forming off Japan
2) the fetch responsible for the weekend NW swell still doing its job in the Kamchatka corner
3) our very long lasting NNE fetch responsible for the current northerly energy swell.
MC2km map at 7am shows very good conditions.
As usual, later in the morning (this is the noon map) some light trades will pick up in the 10-15 knots range. Keep an eye on the sky, because if it's sunny and the Haleakala is cloud free, that could possibly become stronger, but the trend is for the wind to die in the next few days until it will start blowing Kona on Sunday.