Saturday, March 25, 2017

Saturday 3 25 17 morning call

Yesterday morning I contributed to the happiness of a fellow surfer by taking him out for his first time at Hookipa. As the photo below shows, there were some solid head high sets (the word solid denotes mostly head high, but with some occasional bigger ones). The day was perfect for his abilities, the size was definitely pushing his limits, but the low crowd due to light rain, wind and clouds was a key facilitating factor.

I explained him how the current works, how and when to use the channels, and had him catch a wave at each single sub-break, with the exception of Pavillions which of course was too crowded to bother. His last wave was a really steep head and a half bomb at middles, he set up a super low Waimea style stance and stuck the drop. He was overly stoked.

Can you tell?
Here's what he wrote in an email last night:" Thanks again, couldn't stop smiling, had a blast and so stoked finally surfed Ho'okipa!!"
To which I reply: thank YOU brother Justin, your smiles and stoke set me on a high for the rest of the day. I'll see you next time.

Later on the windsurfers hit the water and the conditions were excellent (if you like strong wind).

So good that I had to grab two photos from this gallery by Jimmie Hepp.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore
2.2ft @ 12s from 245° (WSW)           
1.7ft @ 9s from 175° (S)
Lahaina side was waist high yesterday, check the webcams for today's size.
North shore
5.2ft @ 21s from 283° (WNW)
2.9ft @ 9s from 315° (NW)
3.3ft @ 11s from 318° (NW)

3ft @ 12s from 319° (NW)
1.8ft @ 9s from 321° (NW)                      
0.5ft @ 25s from 297° (WNW)
3.1ft @ 12s from 325° (NW)           
2.2ft @ 9s from 348° (NNW)
2.1ft @ 6s from 81° (E)

New massive swell on the rise today, let's dig into the analysis of the buoys. Below is the graph of NW101, Waimea and Pauwela. The first two are the only ones that are feeling the new swell. Hanalei still doesn't report them, but I can guarantee you it's there. Waimea is one of the most sensitive buoys, or at least one of the most protected by other swells, so it's the one that is able to feel low long period energy the best.

The double arrow on the NW101 graph indicated a sharp rise from 1 to 5 feet from 9pm yesterday to 5am this morning. Waimea's steepness is not up yet, but that's because it hasn't even reached one foot yet. Soon it will and soon it should start ramping up similarly. By applying GP's rule of thumb for the travel time from the NW buoys to Maui (16h @ 16s +/-1), at 20s a swell takes 12h to get here and I drew a dotted red line accordingly. But with an original direction of 283, the shadow from the upstream islands will be significant. So guessing the size is a bit of a gamble, but there should be fairly big sets by sunset.
A reader asked in a comment if the swell is going to hit Kihei, Lahaina and Honolua. The answer to the first one is yes, to the second one is maybe (if it squeezes south of Molokai and north of Lanai, and to the last one is probably not, even though I wouldn't be surprised is someone reports inconsistent sets at sunset. Keep an eye on buoys and webcams.

As far as this morning goes, 3f 12s will provide similar size to yesterday morning, so it should still be up head high. Stay tuned for the beach report, which I should post around 7am, but I'm taking it easy this morning.

6.30am reading of the Hookipa wind sensor is 8(4-14)mph from 91, could (and will) be worse.
MC2km map at noon shows strong easterly trades. Should be a cracking day for windsurfing in the late afternoon.

The weather has always been one of the top five things I like about Maui. Today should be no exception.

Current wind map still shows the wide fetch associated with the swell we will receive today. It's gonna be another long lasting one.

And also today there's a massively long fetch down under shooting at central/south America of which we'll get the angular spreading.

PS. Thanks a lot to blog reader Fernando who found another webcam for the Ohukai area in north Kihei. I updated the list.

PPS. Thanks to Jason who pointed me to this awesome video analysis by a guy called Gary Kewley in Oahu. The only thing I don't like is that he often uses the Hawaiian scale, which I consider extremely confusing. Things like "4f 20s at Sunset can be 10 feet" or 11f 16s at Jaws will magnified 2.5 times and so at least 30 feet (faces) which we call 18f Hawaiian. Why introduce another conversion scale is a mistery for me, but the good news is that I will have plenty practice opportunity before leaving for me trip on April 4th. Check it out.


yossarian said...

Thanks for the update, as for tomorrow morning, when the bulk of the swell is hitting Maui, will the angle of the swell get into Honolua bay? And how big do you think it will get at honolua, seeing as the nw hawaii buoy seems to be peaking around 10 ft at 16 seconds and at the buoy, the angle is 293. Knowing that all the energy is not only at that angle, there will be some swell from both more west, and more northwest, what is the predicted size in kihei(especially the reefs in south Kihei near Wailea) and what should be happening at honolua bay. Is it so west, that waves in honolua will be coming from south of Molokai? Or will it just be refraction from north of Molokai, like normal. It seems like the swell will be peaking by Sunday morning. Mahalo love your reports

yossarian said...

I just wanted to reiterate that I'm inquiring as to how big/consistent honolua should be tomorrow morning, and whether the angle will be very good for the cave section

cammar said...

thanks for your comments and your kind words.
This is not a swell for Honolua. IF they come, the waves will still arrive from the north of Molokai. The direction will be 335, so excellent for the Cave, but it might easily be flat or extremely inconsistent. If you go, please post a comment with a report, so I learn something. My experience with westerly swells at the Bay is practically zero. Good luck and happy hunting.