Thursday, July 05, 2018

Thursday 7 5 18 morning call

A shortboard and a SUP session for me yesterday. These shots were taken by my friend Matias during his session. As reported, it was still shoulder high in Lahaina.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore

1.6ft @ 12s from 167° (SSE)
1.3ft @ 15s from 179° (S)
2.1ft @ 14s from 169° (SSE)
2ft @ 13s from 193° (SSW)
Tricky readings at the buoys, as we got all periods from 12 to 15s. The ones that makes more sense is the W ones, as the show theyold swell (the one that peaked Tuesday late morning and afternoon) down to 12s and a new one showing up at 15s. Pat Caldwell's description of the fetch of the new swell (datedlast Monday) is the following:

A much broader fetch set up 6/27 starting near 60S to the SE of New Zealand. It stretched NNE to the subtropics behind a front by 6/29. The aim was direct and the fetch length and width were large. Surf potential in Hawaii is limited by the magnitude deficient winds, that grew seas near 20 feet. The winds were mostly in the lower to mid gale regions while south of 45S (that's pretty much where the southern tip of New Zealand sits) and near to low- end gales to the north of 45S.
Long period forerunners are due late Wednesday with the event filled in on Thursday from 180-200 degrees. It should peak on Friday a notch above average then drop to near average by Saturday from the same direction.

Below are the fetches maps of June 27, 28, 29 and 30 that show exactly what uncle Pat described. I don't think I'll go today, so I can't tell you exactly what the waves really look like, but what I can tell you is that between old and new swell, there will be waves.

Here's a snapshot of Ala Moana that seems to confirm that.

North shore
7.6ft @ 9s from 55° (ENE)
As anticipated in the fetches maps analysis of the last few days, the windswell went up and it's going to stay up for the next few days. Below is the graph of Pauwela and the Surfline offshore swell forecast (link n. 15). As you can see, it's supposed to actually increase even more (blue line) to almost 9f 9s. The purple line is the swell from Fabio, which should reach us only Saturday and peak during the night around 4.5f 15s.
Wind map at noon.
North Pacific shows a long NE windswell fetch. Fabio has a tiny fetch oriented towards us, which makes me think that the above predition is optimistic.
Beautifully positioned fetch in the South Pacific, once again what's missing is the strength of the winds, but we'll still get a fun size swell in a week. This summer has been pretty amazing. Not many big swells, but very consistent small to medium ones. Cheers to that.
Morning sky.
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