5am significant buoy readings and discussion.
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys, and the Lahaina webcam reflects that. Yesterday instead there were actually waist high plus waves (no idea where from). Always worth a check.
3.6ft @ 13s from 314° (NW)
So why such little energy? My guess is that this swell's most important component was made by the angular spreading (out of the blue fetches in yesterday's maps collage). The angular spreading is one of the most difficult thing to predict and it can be extremely inconsistent, specially on the edge of it. The message here is: the information reported by the buoys (height, period and direction) don't give any idea of the consistency of a swell. For that, you need to rely on observation of the fetch. Yesterday I definitely got a bit too excited...
Wind map at noon.
High Tide High Tide Low Tide Low Tide Sunrise Sunset
3:56a +2.8 2:30p +1.4 10:30a +0.9 9:01p -0.3 6:46a 5:45p
In the NW corner there's a weak fetch out of which we should get some angular spreading in about four days,, but to the North of us is the much stronger one that will send the waves for the first contestable day at Honolua. The high I marked will move to the east and take over the middle of the Pacific.
That will be the start of a long period of trades that will last until the jet stream will finally have a dip into the Pacific that will bring to the formation of the monster low we see in the map of Dec 7th. Long term forecasts are subject to change, but that should provide the Pipe Masters (Dec 8 to 20) with a solid swell, hopefully not too big.
Nothing from the south.