Sunday, October 30, 2016

10 30 16 morning call

Two surfs at Hookipa for me yesterday, both poor.

While chatting with some friends in the afternoon, I took this photo of windsurfer Jaeger Stone riding a wave. I tried to crop the toilets out, but I like it better like this.

The PWA wave contest at La Torche wasn't held and all the PWA sailors are now in town for their last contest of the season that is associated with the Aloha Classic.
Current leader of the rankings is Victor Fernandez and the only way that number two Alex Mussolini can clinch the title is if he wins the Aloha and Victor finishes 4th or worse.
Despite the great effort the organizers put into it and without lacking respect to them and to the competitors, unfortunately the PWA tour remains a bit lame IMO, since for sponsor reasons they have to stick to sites that do not offer the best wave riding conditions in the world.

The surfing pro WSL tour have a bunch of events in great spots with the exception of Brasil. In the PWA, it's like it's all Brasil with the exception of Maui.
But we all know how much more money is involved into the surfing world and that obviously makes the difference.
Anyway, with the Aloha starting tomorrow, I'll post a dedicated long term forecast in the second half of this call, but now let's see what's on offer today.

6am significant buoy readings
South shore
0.9ft @ 14s from 219° (SW)
Tiny stuff on the south shore. Check the Lahaina webcam for details.

North Shore
3.8ft @ 12s from 340° (NNW)

5.1ft @ 14s from 336° (NNW)           
3.4ft @ 10s from 356° (N)

2.7ft @ 11s from 358° (N)
2.7ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)

7.1ft @ 8s from 49° (NE)
3.5ft @ 13s from 348° (NNW)
2.5ft @ 11s from 14° (NNE)

I was incorrect yesterday by stating that the WNW swell would not get any more north. And that was because I incorrectly recalled what the fetch did. In other words, the shit I was trying to give you guys to encourage you to remember the wind maps, came straight back at me.
Lesson learned, let's have a look at what really happened by analyzing the wind maps starting from Oct 25th. It's not gonna be easy, because we had a bunch of scattered sources.
In this one, the fetch off Kamchatka is the one that provided yesterday's WNW swell, IMO.
That fetch was quickly pushed north of the Aleutians by a building high and disappeared on the map of Oct 26th below. All that was left was a small area of wave production NNW of us and that is the explanation for the more northerly direction at the buoys today.
On Oct 27 (map below)  the wave generation in the northern hemisphere was minimal and confined to the area east of Kamchatka and to the windswell. That should be reflected in the water tomorrow, which is going to be the smallest day of the whole waiting period of the contest. It's most definitely not going to be flat (windswell still up), so I see it as a perfect day for running the youth and/or the trials of the pros and/or whatever other weak categories.
Head judge Duncan Coombs might also choose to call it off, since he can only use 11 days out of the long waiting period, but that would be a mistake IMO, since Monday and Tuesday will be the only relatively small days before the waves get much bigger. At the moment, only in the very last couple of days (Nov 12 and 13) the waves should go down to a level doable by the common mortals, but that of course can change.

The AWT contest has many age categories (thank god!) while both the AWT and PWA pro's will be in the same bracket (24 men each). As I mentioned, there will be trails for the pro's out of which 7 sailors will advance to the main event. Registration is still open tonight and you can sign up at the Rock'n'Brews in Paia, starting at 6pm.
One last thing to point out about this map is that southerly fetch. Let's see if something materializes at the Lanai buoy in a couple of more days.
The map of Oct 28 shows again a strong fetch in the NW corner. That is going to be responsible for the first NW swell of the contest. Arrival time is still a bit unclear, might be as early as Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday it should be already logo to mast high.
It appears that that first punch shouldn't be too long lasting, since that fetch once again kinda disappeared on the Oct 29 map, but the usual NW corner was already putting a new bullet in the chamber...
...which is clearly visible on today's map: 12f 15s forecasted by Surfline for Thursday Nov 3rd seem a tad over estimated, but if it's gonna happen, they better move the contest at Jaws... I'm sure Polakow wouldn't mind that.
Back to back NW swells, but what about the wind? According to the latest forecast, it should be windy the whole way through. Pretty much as good as it gets for a wave sailing contest, once again Maui will not disappoint.
Today's NAM3km close up shows: you guessed it.

PS. today I already did a 6am beach report and you'll find it just below this call.


Miguel said...

Hi Giampaolo,

in spite of having less and less windsurfing, I am still an avid follower of your blog.
You are 110% right about the PWA wave tour (at least from my point of view).

Surfing tour has more money than the PWA wave. Yes that is a fact. But the money comes because the surfing tour attracts sponsors that are keen to put money on events that are seen by millions (just check the likes in the wls facebook page). On the other hand the pwa wave tour is held in on-shore conditions and seen by a few thousands. A good example is kitesurfing, a sport generated through windsurfing. Check their wave tour - Africa, Australia, N Caledonia & Europe. Why? Because that is what attracts spectators and eventually sponsors.

Bottom line boring wave tour will never attract sponsors and without them we end up with a PWA wave that is held in Europe.
Maybe your diminishing interest in windsurfing is a sign of what is wrong in this sport! What can be done to change this? I would like to hear your opinion.

Ok back to work.

Keep up with the great blog & and please bring back

cammar said...

Hi Miguel,
nothing can be done to change this, IMO. Wave sailing is a discipline that can be super cool (see PWA Cabo Verde 2007, for example), but the number of windsurfers in the world is nothing compared to the number of surfers. And that is because the sport is technical (nicer word than complicated) and requires sideoff wind and peeling waves to be good.
Kitesurfing requires less wind in general and as such has a larger number of "users". It also has a cooler image due to the fact that they can fly high and that appeals to the masses.
See it the positive way and claim that you do an "elite" sport! :)
PWA remains lame, but who cares about that. Check the 2017 AWT tour instead! They got killer spots, like Morocco, Peru, Chile and Maui...