Tuesday, October 04, 2016

10 4 16 morning call

Double surf session at Hookipa for me yesterday, both were fun.

Got a negative comment about my new ranking of the conditions in the beach reports, please post some positive ones if you like them instead. One thing for sure: they're tricky.
As I jumped in the water yesterday morning, I immediately thought:"mmm... this is actually better than the 2.5 I just posted".
Then at one point the wind stopped completely and we had half an hour of glass. At that point I would have ranked the conditions as a 7.5!
"Fortunately", by the time I got out of the water, the wind was blowing pretty hard again and the 2.5 finally became a legitimate conditions ranking. But... for how long?

Here's the main thing you guys need to know: conditions at Hookipa change all the time, so the number you'll read is what I thought from the beach at the moment I saw it. I could be wrong and the conditions can change, but I still think that it's an added value to the readers, so I'm gonna stick to them for a while, before I get a better feedback from you guys. Don't be shy and let me know.

No action photos from yesterday, here's an archive one from the already legendary (for me at least) angular spreading swell of last month. I don't think I posted this on the blog yet.
It's called: God bless empty brown lineups.

Much more interesting is this edit of Dusty Payne called NiƱo.

Significant buoy readings 3am:
0.9ft @ 14s from 198° (SSW)                      
0.5ft @ 20s from 188° (S)
Minimal background long period energy from the south at the Lanai buoy. Still worth a look at the webcam when the sun comes out.

5.8ft @ 9s from 93° (E)           
1.6ft @ 12s from 309° (WNW)

0.5ft @ 15s from 328° (NW)

5.9ft @ 9s from 65° (ENE)

I'm sure you guys will remember the weak NW fetch I pointed out a few days ago. But, just in the very remote case you forgot, here's the wind map of September 30 that shows it at its highest moment of glory. Pretty weak and far, that's why the readings of the related NW swell are so small at the buoys.
I personally have no expectations to see much from this swell at all.
But fortunately, the windswell is still up and thanks to the favorable wind conditions (more on that later in the post), it should be fun this morning.

Quote from Pat Caldwell: "A regime change in the NW Pacific is predicted starting late Monday 10/3 as the jet stream strengthens and shifts further south."
That's good news and that is confirmed by today's wind map that shows a NW fetch so solid that I didn't feel like circling the local windswell one too. It's like a matter of respect.
The related swell is forecast by Surfline to increase all day Saturday and peak at 8f 15s on Sunday morning. It's gonna be a double punch, since there's another low right behind this one, with the second pulse peaking at 8.5f 14s on Tuesday. In other words, plenty big waves next week.

MC2km is not working and that's a bummer. Look at the two models at the bottom of the windguru page, in fact.
The NAM in particular shows two big lulls in the wind during the day (while the other one doesn't). Also the big rain predicted yesterday for today is now postponed to Wednesday.
Too unreliable, I don't like to use those tables, but at least they do show that the wind will be easterly (with the occasional pinch of south) and that should be better for the surfing conditions at Hookipa.

A quick final note to remind that the WSL contest in France has started. The one before was at Trestles and it was the first one that I managed to watch each single heat, completely on demand, without knowing the winner. It was great, everyone was on a tear, everyone had the opportunity to showcase their skills.
This France one seems just the opposite, since yesterday's conditions can be summarized as a bunch of huge closeouts. I might have to go back to the recap videos for that, too boring to watch the whole thing.
Anyway, what's up with Kelly's pad?!

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