Friday, December 14, 2018

Friday 12 14 18 morning call

A longboard session for me yesterday, Honolua was really good. Brother Luke attacking the lip.

Good foot placement on that Sharp Eye.

60 and a hip replacement, Kenny still got game.

 He missed the barrel on this one though. Would have been the wave of the day.

At one point, after a big set, I saw a giant white fish underwater.

Here's when I almost decided to warn the surfers that an albino shark was in the lineup.

The weird thing is that it was always in the same spot, although it was somehow moving and changing its orientation. Looks like a giant squid now.
After a while we saw a guy coming out of the water with half a board and we figured it was the front of it somehow stuck on the reef, most likely anchored by the fiberglass sheet so that the body of it could still oscillate underwater. I was ready to take the gopro with me and take an underwater photo (would have been a hell of a shot!), but the next big set made it disappeared.
Later during my session I saw the half a board on the rocks and the someone retrieving it.

You can imagine my surprise when I later saw it at the shop when I went for my afternoon shift. I was a Hi-Tech rental. The fiberglass sheet theory proved to be correct. Next big set torn it off. Maybe it's still down there. Seriously, how many times have you seen something like that?

4am significant buoy readings
South shore
No indication of significant southerly energy at the buoys. Yesterday was flat. I kind of knew that, but I agreed to meet my foiling student in Lahaina nonetheless, because I had a good backup plan...
Ala Moana doesn't look particularly promising. Ozolio is still looking for Lahaina ocean front business owners that would be of great help for the Maui surfers.

North shore
6.3ft @ 10s from 87° (E)
5.3ft @ 12s from 346° (NNW)

4.7ft @ 8s from 61° (ENE)
4.4ft @ 9s from 60° (ENE)
4.3ft @ 13s from 322° (NW)

5ft @ 7s from 38° (NE)
3.4ft @ 13s from 327° (NW)
2.4ft @ 10s from 336° (NNW)
5.5ft @ 9s from 72° (ENE)
4.7ft @ 7s from 54° (ENE)
3.4ft @ 11s from 337° (NNW)
2.7ft @ 13s from 332° (NNW)
NW energy went down as predicted and veered a bit to the NNW. With a still significant windswell, Hookipa should still be at least head high this morning, but the problem, once again, will be the wind.
The waves should pick up again during the day, since there's a new pulse that has hit the NW buoy already (red circle in the graph below). Here's how Pat Caldwell (link n. 9) describes the fetch that generated it (3-6 hours of travel time in average between Oahu and Maui, 5.4h more precisely for 12s, as indicated in the epic post Buoys to Maui travel times and Maui's shadow lines ):
A zonal jet stream across the N Pacific 12/8-13 has been steering surface low pressure systems rapidly east from the Kuril Islands to the Gulf of Alaska. This is making for back-to-back events with a local wave directional spread overlapping from WNW to N.
NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 to noon Thursday 12/13 shows the dominant wave period shifted down within 11-13 seconds. This event was generated by one of the fast-moving lows south of the Aleutians 12/8-10. It is expected to fade as a new event fills in early Friday.
The next low in the series was mostly marginal gale from the Kuril Islands 12/10 to east of the Date Line 12/11. As the system approached the longitude of Hawaii 12/12, it intensified as a front brought near gales towards the SE crossing 35N. This batch of seas was aimed higher NE of Hawaii, but close enough to expect a continuation of seasonal surf on Friday. It should be dominant from 330-360 degrees though lower energy added within 310-330 degrees. It should peak mid Friday and slowly drop into Saturday as a new event fills in late in the day.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific has a very strong fetch that is mostly oriented towards the Mainland's west coast. The tail of it is still oriented towards us (although weaker) and we might get some angular spreading from the stronger part thanks to the angular spreading and vicinity. Here's Pat Caldwell again:
The next low pressure system in the series gained hurricane-force rapidly late 12/12 east of Hokkaido, Japan. The system is racing east under the zonal jet. It was a broad low pressure system with central pressure to 964 mb near 45N, 175E, or about 2000 nm away from Hawaii Thursday morning 12/13. ASCAT satellite readings Thursday morning validated the hurricane force speeds. The JASON altimeter at 2018-12-13 at 12Z showed seas to near 35 feet and by 16Z near 40 feet. These are higher than the wave model guidance.
The models show the low pressure continuing a rapid pace east, which is unusually for such a broad, deep low pressure system. Usually such characteristics are associated with occluded lows that slow in track speed.
Models suggest a more west to east aim of the highest swell once east of the Date Line early Friday with the system east of the Hawaii swell window by late Friday. This should reduce the surf potential for Hawaii, though proximity of the highest seas combined swell from angular spreading should bring Hawaii well above average.
Extra-long wave periods of 21-25s are predicted to fill in locally toward sundown Saturday from 305-320 degrees. The event should build rapidly overnight and peak near dawn Sunday from 310-330 degrees near the giant category, meaning higher sets on outer reefs in high refraction zones to at least 40 feet.
The fast track should mean a Christmas tree pattern to the swell height time series with a fast rise and fall. It should drop to marginally extra- large levels by Monday morning from 315-345 degrees and down below average by late Monday.
Another fast and furious low is modelled two-days behind the above... we'll talk about it when we'll see it in the next few days. In the meantime, Surfline predicts 15f 18s from 333 on Sunday. They should move the Pipe contest to Honolua, which has been hot all December and won't stop firing  any time soon.

Nothing from the South.

Morning sky.

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